Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 120307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1007 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with only a thin blanket
of mainly cirrus clouds affecting parts of the region. Winds have
been gusty out of the west and southwest due to a tight pressure
gradient in place with surface high pressure to the south. Winds
will become light around or after sunset tonight.

High pressure will continue to influence the region tonight,
keeping skies mostly clear. There may be some very patchy fog
early Wednesday morning, but confidence is rather low due to dry
air in place near the surface. Temperatures will drop into the 50s
for most places.

An upper level short wave will pass through south-central
Minnesota on Wednesday, and this will bring slight chances for
showers and possibly a thunderstorm from the Brainerd Lakes into
northwest Wisconsin. Despite lift from the short wave, instability
will be limited and elevated with southerly warm air advection
creating a low-level capping inversion. Thus, any showers that
develop are expected to be light and isolated. Otherwise, a mix of
clouds and sun are expected with highs in the low to mid
80s...warmer north where more sunshine is expected.

Better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms move in
Wednesday night as a southerly low-level jet develops and
continues to bring in warmer air to the lower atmosphere. A
series of upper level short waves will also approach from the
Dakotas. These ingredients will couple with increasing instability
(mostly elevated initially) to promote thunderstorm chances.
Severe weather is not expected, and the best chances for storms
will be in western portions of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

On Thursday, southerly warm air advection will continue across the
region along with short waves passing through aloft. This will
support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with the best chances west where higher instability (MLCAPE up to
2k J/kg) will be. With weak deep layer shear, severe weather is
not anticipated. Highs will rise to around 80 degrees with a mix
of clouds and sun.

Scattered storm chances will continue Thursday night into Friday
with a better chance for some strong to potentially severe storms
Friday afternoon into Friday night as a cold front passes through
from northwest to southeast. More favorable deep layer shear along
with forced ascent due to the surface front and a series of short
waves embedded within a larger upper level trough support these
storm chances.

A brief break is possible on Saturday before a secondary upper
level trough Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing
more chances for showers and storms. Cold air advection will
stabilize the atmosphere Sunday into Monday with surface high
pressure and upper level ridging moving in, which will bring
quieter and cooler weather for early next week with highs in the
low to mid 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Gusts are expected to continue to decrease as we head into
tonight. HIB and HYR are expected to see some fog tonight, and
could see conditions lower to IFR. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours. The occasional shower is possible
near BRD, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
TAF. Gusts out of the south should return tomorrow afternoon into
the evening with values around 15 kts across the region.


Issued at 952 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Winds will continue to be light tonight and tomorrow aa high
pressure departs the Northland. Some showers and possibly some
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night through Friday. No
hazardous conditions are expected. Waves are not expected to
exceed 2 ft.


DLH  59  79  60  79 /  10  20  20  40
INL  54  86  60  82 /   0  10  20  50
BRD  60  80  63  80 /  10  30  40  50
HYR  57  81  61  82 /   0  20  20  30
ASX  59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  30




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