Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250537 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1137 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Update for new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

The weather tonight through Saturday night will be dominated by a
large, slow moving upper low pressure system that is over
southern IL this afternoon. This system will move slowly northeast
across IN tonight, and lower Michigan on Saturday before picking
up speed and moving across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night.
A shortwave will dive down the backside of this system Saturday
and Saturday night, moving from Saskatchewan south-southeast
across the Dakotas, and should stay far enough to the west to not
affect the forecast area. Between these system, we are going to
keep our cloud cover and snow chances tonight and Saturday, before
snow chances taper off on Saturday night. Have played things
pessimistically for clouds, as even if we get a few breaks, the
overall cloud cover trend will be more cloudy than not.
Temperatures will then have small diurnal changes, with lows in
the teens and 20s, and highs in the 30s, with a general cooling
trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Mainly overcast skies are expected next week with above average
temperatures. The best chance at seeing any sunshine will be
Sunday as the Northland sits between a broad stacked low to the
east and an approaching clipper to the west. Brief and weak
ridging may provide a window for some partial clearing, but low-
level moisture and warm temperatures will likely keep at least
some stratus around through the day.

An unorganized pattern next week will result in off-and-on
chances for light snowfall or mixed precipitation. On Sunday
night, an upper level clipper will pass through southern
Minnesota. Models suggest that the Northland should remain dry.
Models then start to disagree as several weak-amplitude shortwaves
pass through with a nearly barotropic temperature regime across
the region. There may be a better chance of some light snow
Wednesday and Thursday, then again over the weekend with the
potential for a more potent upper level trough to pass through.
With the lack of any major temperature gradients all week, winds
will be mostly light and variable. There could be some light lake-
effect snow at times as well, though it will likely be rather
unorganized and light due to a lack of deep cold air and
fluctuating wind directions as shortwaves pass by. Despite the
model uncertainty in timing out precipitation events, there is
high confidence that anything that develops will simply be a
nuisance at the worst through the week. Above average
temperatures will continue to be above average, with highs in the
low to mid 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

A broad upper-level area of low pressure will continue to meander
through the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday and will keep
MVFR/IFR ceilings over the terminals. Look for HYR to dip into the
LIFR range early this morning through late morning as clouds and
snow showers regenerate and move over the terminal. I have kept
other sites out of the LIFR conditions for this forecast period
and they will have a lower chance of light snow, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  32  22  31 / 100  20   0   0
INL  16  30  16  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  20  29  12  28 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  29  35  23  34 /  80  50  10  10
ASX  30  34  24  33 / 100  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JDS
AVIATION...Huyck


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