Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281121
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
621 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Summary: Another warm and dry day across the region today. Red Flag
Warnings and Special Weather Statements for Near Critical Fire
Weather conditions are in effect for today. Active weather pattern
with showers and storms return late Monday and through the work
week.

The Rex blocking pattern continues over the eastern half of CONUS
today leading to another warm and dry day across the region. We will
see some upper level clouds filtering in from the southeast, but
expect temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s. The
00Z sounding from INL was very dry with PW of 0.27" These dry
conditions will be widespread across northern MN and we have opted
to issue a Red Flag Warning. Wind out of the south around 10-12
mph with gusts in the upper teens will be possible with lesser
wind speeds farther east. While these speeds aren`t quite to
criteria the dry fuels in place could lead to rapidly spreading
fires. Elsewhere, from Aitkin east through NW WI we have issued
and SPS for near critical fire weather conditions due to RHs and
winds not being quite as concerning as the the Red Flag zones.

Memorial Day the Rex block to our east will slowly begin to pull
farther east allowing for some moisture advection to start entering
once again. However, this will not happen till the evening hours.
The day will still sport warm temperatures climbing into the 80s. We
may still have some lingering fire concerns due to the dry air in
place over portions of the Northland. Ensemble guidance points to
rain chances entering later in the evening from the west and
spreading east through Tuesday.

With the blocking pattern continuing it`s slow progression east the
Northland will enter an active weather period through the work
week. The return of Gulf moisture combined with
evapotranspiration has the region outlined in the 90th percentile
for PW through the end of the week. The increased moisture into
the region will lead to higher dewpoints and some of the strongest
instability we have seen this summer. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible through this period. The main limiting factor
for severe weather at this time is how much bulk shear will be
over the region. Current guidance is leaning on the low side which
would lead to rapid thunderstorm growth but quickly collapsing on
themselves. Low confidence in severe weather at this time given
this proposed set up. A good fetch of low level jet will
occasionally stream into the region allowing for some heavy rain
potential as well. The deterministic GFS is running quite high on
QPF topping off around 1.5 inches for DLH through Friday.
Meanwhile it`s ensemble members are about an inch less. Overall,
active period ahead with much of the forcing being dictated by
diurnal trends. As we draw closer we will be able to get a better
handle on the shear parameters and whether any embedded
shortwaves could tilt the forecast towards stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Upper level clouds
are moving in from the southeast this morning. Winds will primarily
be out of the south today with the exception being DLH where a wind
shift to out of the southeast will occur in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

High pressure over the Great Lakes will result in generally light
and variable winds for the next 48 hours. Winds may strengthen up to
around 10 knots this afternoon from the northeast, mainly around the
Twin Ports. As high pressure moves slowly east on Monday, winds may
become slightly stronger from the northeast with gusts up to 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  49  74  52 /   0   0   0  10
INL  84  55  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  81  56  83  61 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  82  53  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  79  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033-034.

LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt


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