Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 252335
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Summary: Rain continues this afternoon and through the night. High
pressure will build in tomorrow shunting rain off to the east.
Temperatures will recover back into the 70s by Friday. A very active
weather pattern is expected to take hold of the region to end May
and start off June. Multiple round of rain and storms will be
possible with chances beginning on Saturday. Some storms may be
severe beginning on Sunday and beyond but uncertainty is still a bit
to high to highlight exact threats and timing.

Radar this afternoon showcases a steady stream of rain showers
advecting in from the south and spread north. The overall track of
the precipitation has shifted slightly further east then previously
anticipated. That being said we are still looking at about and inch
of rain for portions of northern WI with totals dwindling further
north into MN. Additionally, rainfall looks to exit west to east
earlier with this forecast package update.

A cut off low will be slow to move across the Midwest the next
couple days but high pressure building in from the north will shunt
the precipitation off to the east Thursday morning. Look for highs
to recover back into the 60s for Thursday and climb into the 70s by
Friday.

We are looking at a very active pattern rounding out the end of May
and to start June. The cut off Low which helped push moisture into
our area today continues its slow slog to the east with strong mid
level ridging building across the Southeast. The GFS hints at this
Low retrograding after it hits the Atlantic giving way to a Rex
blocking pattern over eastern CONUS. With the blocking pattern in
place this will allow for a open gulf scenario surging moisture up.
Cluster analysis is consistent with it`s depiction of anomalously
strong ridging over the east from day 4 through day 7 providing high
confidence in the active weather pattern.

With all that being said attention then turns to our first onslaught
of precipitation. Chances return Saturday as a shortwave moves in
from the west. There will be a chance for some thunderstorms with
this but currently the corridor of strongest instability looks to
stay out of our region. Sunday and beyond the chances for severe
weather are beginning to increase. SPC has a portion of the
Northland highlighted in a 15 percent chance of seeing severe
weather. Right now one of the main caveats to the severe potential
is the warm nose of air expected to surge into the region. The NAEFS
has the 700mb temps near the max of climatology which could lead to
a strong cap in place preventing any surface based convection from
taking off. Elevated convection however could still be an issue but
the models are struggling to capture how much moisture may be in the
lower levels for the storms to work with.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

MVFR conditions continue. Ceilings may briefly rise to VFR before
lowering again overnight. Fog is possible overnight near Lake
Superior, with lowered visibilities most likely at DLH and HYR.
Visibilities down to a couple miles is expected, but could reach
as low as LIFR at times. Both fog and low ceilings should clear
out in the morning as the sun rises and a high pressure moves into
the region. VFR conditions are expected afterwards.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Light rain showers will continue across Western Lake Superior into
the night. Gusty northeast winds around 30 kts continue through the
night with wave heights of 4 to 7 ft at times. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for both the wind and wave height hazard.
High pressure settles in for Thursday with winds becoming more light
and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  60  43  72 /  70   0   0   0
INL  43  65  43  75 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  44  65  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  40  59  40  74 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  39  57  40  69 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Kossen
MARINE...Britt


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