Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
257 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

High pressure centered over Manitoba this morning will drift
southeastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin today and Tuesday.
Abundant sunshine is expected thanks to the influence of the high
pressure combined with a very dry airmass. Northerly winds will
continue today, especially aloft, which will keep temperatures on
the cool side. Highs will be near normal today with readings in
the middle 30s in the higher elevations of Cook County to low 40s
over portions of the Brainerd Lakes, St. Croix River Valley, and
much of northwest Wisconsin. Continued cool tonight with lows in
the teens above zero under clear skies. A weak shortwave trough
will move across the region Tuesday. A narrow ribbon of Pacific
moisture will accompany the trough which will result in partly to
mostly cloudy skies by Tuesday afternoon. A few sprinkles are
possible north of the international border with dry conditions
expected across northern Minnesota. Winds will turn southwesterly
Tuesday as the ridge slides farther east, ushering in warmer
temperatures near the ground and aloft. Highs will be on the
warmer side of normal with readings in the low to upper 40s,
except for much of Cook County where upper 30s are likely.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

A warming trend towards mid-week with highs as warm as the 50s to
near 60 on Wednesday, then cooler late-week into the weekend with
temperatures close to seasonable values for late March. A
generally dry forecast with just a chance for rain showers
Wednesday, then a low chance for light lake effect snow along the
south shore Friday night into Saturday. This dry weather pattern
with high temperatures generally above freezing and nights getting
below freezing is just about the best kind of weather to allow
for a gentle snow melt process as the deep snowpack slowly melts
away and causes levels to rise on area rivers and streams.

On the synoptic scale the work week begins with a broad mid/upper
level ridge over the Rockies and a resultant broad area of high
pressure over the northern Plains. At the week progresses, this
area of high pressure shifts east over the Upper Great Lakes late
Monday then shifts towards the Northeast late Tuesday into
Wednesday. At low levels as this high pressure shifts to the east,
southwest flow will cause warm air to advect into the Upper
Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday causing increasing temperatures as
well as low level clouds. The mid/upper level ridge axis moves
across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night followed by a weak mid-
level shortwave trough on a clipper-like track from the Canadian
Rockies east towards northwest Ontario on Wednesday causing a weak
resultant surface low to deepen. This weak wave will lead to
broad-scale lift across of Manitoba, northwest Ontario, and parts
of northern Minnesota which, combined with the warm sector over
the Northland, is expected to lead to some light rain developing
Wednesday across much of the region as highs warm up to the 50s to
near 60. A cold front associated with this surface low to the
north will sweep from west to east across the region late
Wednesday causing cooler air to advect in from the north causing
drier air to move in and thus end any chance for precipitation.

Cooler late-week into the weekend as another round of reinforcing
cold air arrives from the north late Friday into Saturday, but
there will be very limited layer moisture and thus precipitation
chances are very low late-week through the weekend. Highs coldest
on Saturday in the mid 30s to near 40, otherwise highs in the 40s
Thursday, Friday, and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

VFR conditions expected with clear skies tonight through Monday
as high pressure moves overhead in a dry air mass. Light
northwesterly winds on Monday.


Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through the next 48
hours. Today through Wednesday winds will be out of the southwest
at 5 to 15 knots across western Lake Superior before a cold front
causes a change in wind direction Wednesday night. A chance for
rain Wednesday, otherwise dry conditions expected through the work


Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Snow melt will be slow today thanks to cooler temperatures. Highs
will be in the middle 30s to low 40s and will dip well below
freezing once again tonight. Warmer air will return for Tuesday
with highs in the low to upper 40s and lows Wednesday morning
generally above freezing. Even warmer Wednesday which will
accelerate snowmelt runoff. Highs will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s. A few 60 degree readings aren`t out of the question.
Temperatures will trend cooler later this week into the weekend
but highs will remain above freezing. Water levels on area creeks,
streams, and rivers will continue to rise as the snowmelt water
works its way downstream. Ice jam flooding is possible on area
rivers and streams and there is a potential for localized minor
flooding due to frozen culverts, especially on Wednesday.


DLH  39  20  45  35 /   0   0  10  10
INL  37  13  45  35 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  40  20  46  37 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  42  16  47  36 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  42  19  48  35 /   0   0   0  10




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