Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 290007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
707 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will affect central and southeast IL
through this evening. There is a risk of severe storms, including a
potential for damaging winds, large hail, and strong tornadoes,
through this evening. Locally heavy rains will also be possible with
thunderstorms and could produce over 1 inch of rainfall in some
areas. Brisk southerly winds this evening will switch to strong
westerly winds overnight and continue through Sunday. Generally dry
and seasonably cool weather will return to the area through Monday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The warm front that was stalled out near I-74 has surged rapidly
northward the past few hours with a north-south oriented cold
front draped southward from Des Moines area approaching from the
west. Significantly strong shear and instability in the warm
sector over central and southeast IL, along with lift and
convergence associated with the cold front should produce
supercell thunderstorms, generally organizing into an eastward
moving line across central IL this evening. Meanwhile, isolated
severe storms have formed in the warm sector and remain a threat
this afternoon. A tornado watch is in effect for the entire
central/southeast IL forecast area until 9-10 p.m. (10 p.m. I-70
southward). After the cold front moves through, roughly 7 p.m. in
western IL, midnight at the IN state line, strong westerly winds
will begin to surge into the area, with 25-30 mph winds and gusts
to 45 mph expected late tonight through Sunday afternoon. A wind
advisory has been issued for areas I-70 northward, while to the
south brisk westerly winds should be just a bit less. Temperatures
will fall back closer to normal, with highs ranging from 52 in
Galesburg to 63 in Lawrenceville Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Gradients associated with the outgoing low pressure system will
weaken Sunday night as high pressure moves into the region, causing
winds to fall off rapidly overnight. This high pressure looks to
bring dry weather through Monday and suppress a southern stream
system to the south for Tuesday, for precipitation chances with this
system mainly over the southern half of Illinois. By Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, the high pressure ridge should rebuild behind
the Tuesday system for a return to dry conditions for a period
early Wednesday, although a northern stream system looks to
rapidly approach late in the day for some low chance PoPs. High
pressure over the gulf coast states on Wednesday will block
moisture into IL so any precipitation amounts should be quite
light if they happen. Seasonably cool air will remain over the
area, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Monday followed by
upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, and lows in the mid
30s to low 40s through midweek.

Late in  the week into next weekend, models are in agreement with a
large upper level low relatively stationary over the Great Lakes
Region, and this could bring a pattern of cool weather and
occasional chances for light precipitation. Highs look to be
generally upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A broken line of strong thunderstorms is expected to approach the
KPIA and KSPI terminals by 01Z-02Z, and potentially farther east
later in the evening, but otherwise generally VFR conditions have
developed across the central IL terminals this evening. Potential
MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys will briefly be possible with these storms.
Behind a cold front passage overnight, additional low cloud cover
should arrive producing MVFR cigs cigs from 09Z-11Z until 16Z-20Z.
Winds S15-20G25-30 kts this evening, shifting to W20-25G35-40 kts
late tonight into Wednesday afternoon.


Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ027>031-



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