934
FXUS63 KMPX 120506
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Weather Advisory issued for bitterly cold airmass this
  weekend. Wind chills of -25 to -35F below zero Friday night
  through Sunday across much of Minnesota and western
  Wisconsin.

- Light snow showers possible for Friday morning`s commute.
  Accumulations less than 1" expected.

- A big warm-up looks possible for the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Overall its been a quiet cloudy day. Surface reflectivity
looking much more ominous than whats occurring. Using this
morning`s 12z balloon sounding, there looks to be a notable dry
layer between 850- 700mb. Additionally, ob sites and MnDOT road
cameras not showing any inclination of light falling snow, thus
chalking up any radar returns as a potential for flurries only.
All of the more prevalent snowfall today continues to be located
well southwest of the MN River Valley where an embedded mid-
level wave skirts western Minnesota for the rest of today. Total
snow accumulations with this wave continue to range between 1-3
inches near the Buffalo Ridge. As for the rest of us north and
east including western WI, will just see overcast skies, perhaps
a few flurries, and temperatures in the teens.

Tonight into early tomorrow morning, an upper-level trough with
a surface cold front makes its way southeastward from Manitoba
and crosses into the arrowhead of MN. Ahead of this front,
another shot of light snow showers is possible just in time for
the morning commute thanks to broad forcing in place. Snow
accumulations are expected to be considered cosmetic and less
than an inch overall however could make for a few slippery spots
on untreated surfaces. Weak surface winds become breezy through
the course of Friday as this front advects in much colder air.
Our forecasted highs for Friday (in the teens) will be met early
as the cold front progresses through afternoon into the evening
from NW to SE.

By Friday night into the weekend, a strong 1045mb surface high
becomes dominant over the northern plains. So although we will
see a break from any new snow, it gets very cold. Temps will
continue to fall Friday night down to -10 to -15 below zero
north and east of I-94 to -5 to -10 south and west. More notably
wind chills will be even colder and range from -25 to -30
degrees as we enter early Saturday. Some sunshine does make its
return for Saturday afternoon however, forecast highs struggle
to get above 0 degrees. Saturday night our cold snap bottoms out
with wind chills ranging from -25 to -35 degrees below zero.
Given the duration and spatial coverage of this arctic airmass,
Cold Weather Advisories were issued across counties north and
east of the MN River Valley, (including western Wisconsin) for
Saturday, and then all counties for Sunday. With this being our
first arctic blast of the season, we wanted to provide the
reminder that wind chill headlines have been replaced by cold
weather and extreme cold headlines. This was to help simplify
the message, "cold is cold." So this might be a good weekend to
enjoy the hot cocoa and and cozy blanket to keep warm.

Looking ahead into next week, forecast guidance continues to
feature thermal ridging building and making its way east
Monday into Tuesday. H850 temp anomalies showing that much of
the Contiguous U.S. would being anywhere from 5 to 15C warmer.
This surge of warmer air will aid bringing our forecast highs
back to near or well-above normal which this time of the year is
in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. As for precipitation,
much of the week looks tranquil except for a slight potential
for precip Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Generally VFR conditions at initialization will hold through the
early morning hours. MVFR ceilings will settle in prior to
daybreak ahead of an incoming cold front. This front will be
the focus for morning to early afternoon light snow across
central MN into western WI. MVFR ceilings will still prevail
although IFR ceilings/visibilities are likely under the heavier
bursts/bands of snow. Conditions will then gradually improve
through the MVFR range Friday afternoon-evening, potentially to
VFR by late Friday evening. Winds will turn NW with the frontal
passage with speeds becoming breezy/gusty.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the overnight
hours and into the morning push, then will look for MVFR
ceilings to return shortly after sunrise. Best timing of the
band of snow likely to impact MSP looks to be in the 12z-16z
timeframe, potentially as early as 11z and potentially as late
as 17z. IFR conditions likely with the passage of this swath of
snow, with accumulations up to a half inch possible. Conditions
will then gradually improve through the rest of the day. Winds
will turn NW with the passage of the front responsible for the
snow, with directions nearly straight down the 30s with speeds
increasing to near 15G25kts in the afternoon hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 10 AM CST
     Sunday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Carver-Chippewa-
     Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-
     Washington-Wright.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday
     for Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 10 AM CST
     Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC