Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 050340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

High pressure centered overhead has resulted in a sunny, but cool
day. Through Sunday, this high will head into the Great Lakes, with
return flow developing. Cloud cover really does not start to pick up
until Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as we start getting a LLJ
to develop within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak
from northern MN across the Great Lakes. Sunday night, best WAA is
angled up into northern MN, where the greatest threat for precip
resides. Did trim PoPs back quite a bit for Sunday night as a
result, though you can`t completely rule out some scattered showers
really anywhere in MN given the broad isentropic lift within the
southerly low level flow moving into the state.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

The long term will feature a couple of pleasant days Monday and
Tuesday, but models continue to show a significant pattern shift
occurring mid week to that of cool and dry northwest flow that looks
to persist though the middle of April.

Monday still looks to be a dry day as activity from Sunday night
moves east of the area. But we should repeat the shower process
Monday night as the LLJ strengthens again. Once again, the best
WAA/moisture convergence with the LLJ looks to be across northern
MN, with this activity diving southeast through Tuesday morning on
the nose of the LLJ. As a result, best precip chances Monday night
through Tuesday morning look to be along/north of the I-94 corridor
in MN and north of the I-90 corridor in WI. We continue to see
models showing over 1000 j/kg of muCAPE developing ahead of the cold
front swing through here Tuesday morning/early afternoon, though it
is strongly capped and there are no indications of warm sector
convection occurring until northern IL/southern WI.

For temperatures on Tuesday, left the NBM highs in there, which was
in the warmer half of guidance. Though the surface cold front comes
through in the morning, we don`t really see 925-850mb temps cool off
until the strong cold front moves through on Wednesday. We`ll see
very deep mixing on Tuesday with sunny skies, which should still
allow us to make a run at 70 across southern MN, which will
probably be our last run at 70 until at least the end of the month.

As the pattern shift happens Wednesday, models are starting to a
show strong northwest flow shortwave moving through on Wednesday and
we will likely see some showers develop ahead of it and its strong
cold front moving south across the area during the day on Wednesday.
Behind this front, it`s a prolonged period of northwest flow, with
h85 temps progged to remain below 0c all the way into mid April,
hence why it will likely be a while before we even come close to
sniffing 70 again. As is always the case with northwest flow, it
will have embedded shortwaves that will bring the occasional chance
for light precip, but no significant storms are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

VFR conditions through the period with FEW/SCT mid to high clouds
through the morning. Mid-level clouds increase again towards the
end of the period. Light southeast winds to start the period will
become more southerly tomorrow morning, with speeds increasing to
around 10 kts by the afternoon. Gusts around 20 kts are also
possible tomorrow afternoon at AXN and RWF.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

Mon...MVFR cigs. Chc -shra/IFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind becoming WNW 15G25 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds NW 15G25 kts.



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