


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
601 FXUS63 KMPX 131749 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening from central into southwest MN. - Continued bouts of Canadian wildfire smoke and poor air quality possible through Monday. - Next chance for widespread rain chances will come Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, with an excessive rain threat existing through the whole period. - Below normal temperatures for the end of the week into next weekend, with another period of unsettled weather possible Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 It was another smoky night overnight, but the approach of a surface trough and associated uptick in southwest winds will help push the smoke northeast of the area, with both the HRRR/RAP showing surface smoke concentrations dropping off considerably this afternoon. With that front will also come a risk of isolated to scattered storms. There really isn`t much mid level support, with the main source of forcing today being convergence along the low level wind shift. Given the favorable southwest winds, we`ll see temperatures warm well into the 80s, with dewpoints ahead of the wind shift pooling up to around 70. HREF shows 2000-2500 j/kg of mlCAPE developing this afternoon ahead of the wind shift. Forecast soundings don`t show much capping on this instability either, so we have enough instability with the weak forcing to support the thunderstorm threat. For the severe potential, we`ll have a northwesterly jet streak nosing into the area, which will provide 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. So we have the shear and instability to support some organized convection. HREF updraft strength and updraft helicity products support the potential for an angrier storm or two, with some supercell structures possible as well. So we concur with the SPC in adding the Marginal risk of severe storms for this afternoon and evening in MN. Storms will be diurnally driven and this activity will likely die off before reaching southeast MN and western WI Sunday night. For Monday, we`ll see instability build again, though this time it looks capped, with Monday really being about setting the stage for the Tuesday through Wednesday night period. The main potential for Monday is the RAP had HRRR both show another surge of smoke coming in behind the wind shift Sunday evening, with both models showing another potential day of wildfire smoke. Tuesday through Wednesday night, we`ll have a positively tilted h5 trough slowly work across the northern CONUS, with an equally slow front moving across the region. How quickly the cap from Monday erodes will determine how quickly we`ll see rain move south into central MN Tuesday afternoon. Also, the EPS continues to ratchet up the heat on Tuesday ahead of the boundary. We stuck with the NBM highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s, though the EPS has quite a few members topping out in the mid 90s on Tuesday. Combine those temperatures with dewpoints likely in the lower 70s and there will be some potential for heat headlines in the Twin Cities metro Tuesday. As you can imagine, all that heat and humidity will lead to a rather unstable environment as well and it`s this instability that will support an increasing threat for thunderstorms by the afternoon across central Minnesota. The big limiting factor for a big severe risk is our mid and upper flow will be weak, with the main upper flow still up over southern Canada. So it`s likely to be slow moving storms. With PWATs up into the 1.5-1.9" range, we`ll have some heavy downpours mixed in there. The main limiting factor for the heavy rain threat is we look to get our rain in several waves given the nature of the upper level wave slowly moving across the north central CONUS. This will mean we get some breaks between each round of rain, with each subsequent round likely to fall slightly farther south than the previous. All this adds up to us getting some soaking rains, but it will likely be tough get widespread excessive rainfall issues. From the severe perspective, that looks best Tuesday as rain Wednesday/Wednesday night will come when we are north of the boundary and in a bit more stable airmass, with a more overrunning type setup taking shape. To end the upcoming workweek, we will have cool high pressure from Canada. This will mean highs only in the 70s, but being it`s coming from Canada, it will bring a renewed threat for reduced air quality with wildfire smoke. For next weekend into the following week, we`ll see a seasonably deep h5 low setup over Hudson Bay/northern Canada. This in turn will result in seasonably strong zonal flow along the US/Canada border, which means we should continue to see a parade of waves moving across the region, with no prolonged stretches of dry weather expected anytime soon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR with MVFR TSRA possible later this afternoon and more smoke MVFR smoke tomorrow. The first wave of wildfire smoke has cleared most sites early this afternoon with EAU refusing to let go if its hold on MVFR vsby. Conditions there should improve in the next hour or so as smoke continues to push eastward. Winds today will be southwesterly with a few gusts nearing 20kts but of course decreasing after sunset and becoming light and variable. A few isolated areas of SHRA/TSRA possible later this evening between 00- 4z. As of now, included a PROB30 for RWF and STC where any precip looks most probable. For our WI sites, a brief period of MVFR/IFR fog is possible before our second wave of MVFR smoke return from the north for most sites. RWF and MKT are practically on the southern periphery of the smoke`s extent thus did not include MVFR FU mentions in their specific TAFs. Winds tomorrow will become S/SW tomorrow near 10kts. KMSP...Slight chance of iso-SHRA/TSRA this later this evening but strongest chances remain well west of the field. Crosswind gusts across the parallels near 20kts this afternoon before decreasing after 00z. Winds become light and variable overnight before returning to the S/SW around 10kts tomorrow. MVFR smoke returns mid- morning tomorrow but vsby not expected to fall below 4SM. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, TSRA likely evening/overnight. Wind SW 10-15 kts. WED...MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, Wind NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...Dunleavy