Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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756 FXUS63 KFGF 061714 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds up to 45 MPH forecasted today in eastern North Dakota and portions of northwestern Minnesota. - Precipitation chances across the area at various points this weekend and beyond. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The wind advisory has been expanded to include portions of Lakes Country due to marginally advisory-level winds. Impacts today remain isolated to the gusty winds. A few rain showers may reach the surface this afternoon, although confidence is very low thanks to the ongoing dry air near the surface. Regardless, impacts will be low. UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Winds continue to increase this morning with sustained winds between 20 and 25 knots, gusting up to 35. Winds will continue to increase through the day today. Intermittent light showers remain possible (20% chance) out in northwest Minnesota, but with dry air near the surface, impacts will remain limited. UPDATE Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Clouds continue to sink into the area from Canada this morning. Isolated precipitation has been picked up by surface observations, but nothing widespread. The main chances for showers this afternoon will be in northwestern Minnesota. Forecast remains on track && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...Synopsis... A persistent layer of clouds is advecting SE from Canada this morning, which guidance suggests will stay throughout the day in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A low-level jet is over our area today, contributing to gusty winds in the area. This LLJ should propagate east into Friday and the weekend. A 500mb ridge will build in the west, putting us in NW flow from the weekend onward. ...Gusty Winds... The aforementioned low-level jet combined with PGF in the area at the surface will bring in gustier conditions today. Despite cloud cover in a lot of the valley, it looks like we could still see winds advect down to the surface around 30 MPH sustained. We will definitely hit that in the Devils Lake Basin, but given that guidance has been under-performing winds the past few days, decided to go with a wind advisory from the Devils Lake Basin to the MN Red River Valley. Wind gusts up to 45 MPH are forecasted, and majority of members in hi-res guidance show sustained criteria (30 MPH or greater) occurring in areas west of the escarpment in North Dakota. ...Precipitation Chances... Showers are going to be possible this Saturday, about a 30 - 50% chance in northwestern MN. However, the chances for greater than or equal to 0.25" in this area are only 10% or less. Monday and Tuesday looks to be next chance for precipitation in the area, but chances for greater than or equal to 0.25" are <20% this day too. These chances could change, as this system is 5 days away, so a lot of variables are still subject to change. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR to isolated MVFR cigs will continue through the afternoon. Isolated -RA may arise at BJI or TVF, but impacts to flight categories are not expected. Winds will remain elevated through the day today with no significant changes in direction (greater than 30 degrees). Overall, aviation impacts today will be primarily tied to wind gusts pushing past 30 knots for all TAF sites. This will improve after 00z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029-030-040. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...Perroux