Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Skies generally clear over the area at 05z. some thin cirrus
moving into south central North Dakota and there will be high
cloud patches moving across the area overnight. Some area of mid
cloud development possible in mid level warm advection zone from
parts of south central/southeastern North Dakota into northestern
South Dakota. Models backing off on precip with this...but could
be a few mid level showers 12z-15z in this band in southeastern ND
into WC MN.  Chance is quite low though but something to watch.
Most short range convective models showing threat for storms more
so in Manitoba by 00z Sat maybe into far NE ND/NW MN as well...but
focus does seem a bit north. 00z GFS seems too wet.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Surface ridge axis to shift east allowing return flow and warm
advection to initiate from west to east overnight. Coolest
readings over the far east however overall minimum temperatures
will be closer to seasonal averages.

On friday surface low pressure will organize and shift into the
western dakotas during the afternoon. East west oriented warm
frontal boundary will lift north to the northern fa by evening.
Capping will increase during the day with lowest CIN north of warm
front vcnty international border. This looks to be the most likely
area for convective initiation late afternoon. Instability axis
initially across the central dakotas will shift east in the
afternoon. Maintained some low pops across the western fa however
with strong capping confidence not real high. Expanded pops
eastward across the north late afternoon but this also dependent
on when cap breaks. Temperatures will recover to at or above
average with continued warm advection/mixing during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Friday night through Saturday night...Potentially active period
begins with a warm front lifting north across the northern portions
of the FA. Strong capping remains a major question mark in terms of
where, if and when storms occur Friday evening. If the cap is broken
supercells will be the dominate convective mode with large hail and
a few tornadoes as storms interact with the warm front. Once storms
lift north into Canada there will be a lull in activity before the
western forecast area sees a line of storms advancing eastward along
the westerly wind shift early Saturday morning. Main threats will be
damaging winds and large hail. Timing of the wind shift and its
eastward progression will show what area will see the threat of
severe weather redevelop Saturday late morning into the
afternoon...current thinking is along the eastern edge of the Red
River valley and points east...per SPC Day 2 convective outlook.

Sunday to Thursday a relatively calmer period appears to be setting
up across the northern plains. After the upper low departs with its
lingering showers Sunday the 500mb flow aloft will keep moderate and
extreme instability to the south and west of the forecast area and
with it a quieter weather regime is in store for the FA.
Temperatures will be predominantly in the 70s with a gradual warming
trend through the week and some low 80s by thursday. Only POPs
during the work week will be Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR thru the pd. South to southeast wind increasing into Friday
esp RRV and DVL basin to 15-25 kts midday and aftn Friday. Some
mid and high level cloud patches Friday...bit better coverage DVL
basin. Still unknown on tstm potential. Best chance does appear to
stay north of TAF sites but high uncertainity.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Riddle



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