Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 050444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THICKEST CLOUD COVER...WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND AN ISOLATED LTG
STRIKE REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE FAR EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MINOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.