Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 041956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND ROUND TWO
TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED AFTER SOME CELLS PULSED
UP TO SEVERE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...BUT CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF THINNING CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FINALLY HAS A BIT OF SFC BASED CAPE
AFTER THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE NORTHERN CWA
CAN DESTABILIZE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND
30 KTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...BUT MODELS BRING THROUGH ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BREAK IN PRECIP FOR SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH RECENT RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE...BUT THE NAM AT LEAST HAS SOME
CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 40 KTS BULK SHEAR ARE
WEST OF WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS EXPECTED. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IT COULD
COMPLICATE THINGS. SOME FAIRLY GOOD QPF IS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BUT FOR
NOW HAVE SOME 80S IN THE SOUTH AND 70S IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO MONTANA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD
HELP PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS VARY
ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR NOW KEPT
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY BUT GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE STARTING OFF THE PERIOD
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WILL SEE WEST-NW
WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR
WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI.
THEREFORE LOOKING FOR MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TRICKY SET OF TAFS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS
SEEM TO BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
KDVL AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KFAR ROTATING NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
FOG POTENTIAL OR LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOT
SURE HOW THICK ANY FOG WOULD BE OR HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS
WOULD GET...BUT THREW THE MENTION IN FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON



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