Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221742
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN FA HAVE REALLY TAPERED
BACK BUT ARE INCREASING AGAIN JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA. THESE
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING
LONGEST TO GET INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CUT BACK A
LITTLE MORE ON EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS TOO AS UPSTREAM LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN GETTING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS
NOSING INTO NV. JET WAS UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTS EAST WED NIGHT. SHOWALTER BECOME NEGATIVE AS
850 HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST TO DIG A BIT
FRI WITH DOWN STREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS RESPECTIVELY. MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED
ATMOSPHERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG/150+ KNOT/ UPPER LEVEL JET TO NOSE
INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA FRI. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPS
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...AND DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY DEALING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KDVL WILL LIGHTEN UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KDVL
WILL STAY W/SW AND LIGHTEN UP DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RK






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