754
FXUS64 KFWD 051931
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

This morning`s round of storms has now made it to the Gulf of
Mexico, leaving behind dry conditions throughout North and Central
Texas. The good news is that, for a change, we ARE NOT looking at
another round of storms tonight. Many locations across North and
Central Texas continue to experience flooding in low-water
crossings due to the multiple rounds of rain over the last few
weeks. Improvements are expected to continue today into tomorrow.

Temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s as
mostly clear skies continue through the rest of the day. Tonight,
clear skies and light winds are expected, setting the stage for
fog development where rain occurred earlier today. Any fog that
develops will dissipate after sunrise tomorrow with clear skies
much of the day.

The main weather story tomorrow will be the return of the heat
throughout the region as temperatures climb into the mid to upper
90s. Given plenty of moisture in the air, heat index values will
approach the triple digit mark. Winds will be out of the south
generally between 5 to 15.

A front will stall across Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and with
sufficient daytime heating, a few thunderstorms will be possible
in far western Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle. A few of these
storms may move southeast grazing our northwestern most counties
closer to sunset, however, the probability of this happening is
less than 20%. These storms are expected to be sub-severe given
fairly dry mid-levels and an elevated capping inversion.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday and Beyond/

Overhead mid-level ridging will keep a mostly dry forecast over
our forecast area through the end of the week minus a couple low
chances across far North Texas. Expect afternoon high temperatures
in the low to mid-90s through the weekend, possibly approaching
the century mark west of Hwy 281 on Saturday. The stalled frontal
boundary over Oklahoma may provide a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development again Friday afternoon. As we move into
the time range of several convective-allowing models, hints at
some Thursday night/Friday morning convection over Oklahoma are
beginning to appear. Outflow from these thunderstorms may act as
another focal point for convective initiation near the Red River
Friday afternoon. However, a stout capping inversion and
subsidence associated with mid-level ridging will be acting
against storms developing keeping rain chances low (~15%) and
coverage very isolated (if storms even develop).

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will dig south over the northern
Great Plains shunting the aforementioned mid-level high pressure
south and east opening portions of the Southern Plains back up for
some overnight MCS activity. Although the better potential for
this activity looks to remain north, a thunderstorm complex may
scrape across our far northern Red River counties Saturday night.
More area-wide rain chances look to return in the Sunday-Monday
timeframe as guidance continues to highlight a stronger frontal
passage over North and Central Texas. We will keep at least low
end rain chances through the middle of next week as our region
looks to remain under active northwest flow aloft. North-
northeasterly winds, increased cloudiness, and potential
precipitation may nudge temperatures back into the 80s across much
of North and Central Texas by Monday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Patchy fog tonight.

After a busy stretch of weather, we`re finally have a period with
no thunderstorms expected within the next 30 hours at TAF sites.
The main concern, however, will be the potential for patchy fog
tonight into tomorrow morning. The DFW Metroplex TAF sites and
Waco will be on the western edge of any fog that develops,
therefore, confidence in it occurring remains low. We`ll continue
to refine the forecast this evening and adjust to the new
guidance. Tonight, winds will remain light and variable, further
increasing the potential for fog.

Any patchy fog will dissipate after sunrise, with winds becoming
established out of the south. Wind speeds will remain below 06
knots tomorrow with VFR skies continuing. Late afternoon ISO TS
will be possible on the outskirts of UKW`s cornerpost, however,
impacts within D10 are not expected.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  96  74  94  77 /   0   5   5   5   0
Waco                70  94  71  93  75 /   0   5   5   5   0
Paris               64  92  69  90  72 /   0   5   5  20   0
Denton              66  94  69  93  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
McKinney            66  93  70  92  75 /   0   5   5  20   0
Dallas              70  95  72  95  77 /   0   5   5   5   0
Terrell             67  91  70  93  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           71  91  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              72  94  71  95  75 /   0   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  97  71  96  75 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$