530
FXUS63 KGLD 121915
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot today and Thursday with high temperatures in the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances today, with slightly better
  chances Thursday evening/night. Some severe storms are
  possible.

- Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday, with a risk for
  severe storms as well as heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
  especially Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions persist
area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s as of 100
PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently traversing the area,
providing a southerly fetch for areas east of Highway 25, and a west-
northwest flow behind it. Gusts around 30 mph are occurring on
either side of the boundary.

Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated
rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will be
followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening.

First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA
through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25
area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially for
locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent dewpts
in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape values on
soundings does show some instability, so have followed the NamNest
and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the southeast(Gove.
Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms could produce some
strong gusts with inverted-v profiles.

With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies providing
westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup, guidance puts a weak
shortwave over the north/east portion of the ridge towards the 06z-
09z Thursday timeframe up into portion of northeast Colorado. With
weak instability/moisture available, continued isolated wording for
a 15 pop for a rw/trw. Winds would be main threat concern.

Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a slow
trek eastward into the southern Plains for afternoon/evening hours.
This will allow a stronger shortwave to work off the central Rockies
during the afternoon hours, and interact with a surface low over
southeast Colorado, with a front extending eastward into Kansas.
CAMs are showing rw/trw potential to develop from west to east over
the CWA. Strong to severe storms are expected. Current guidance has
DCape values around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are
around 1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri-
state region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and
wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east
overnight.

For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from the
lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper 60s east
of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may only drop into
the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot day(850 mb temps
+28c to +33c before front gets established) on tap with daytime
highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest areas along/south of I-
70. This will give way to overnight lows Thursday night in a range
from the lower 60s west into the upper 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The upper trough moves through the area on Saturday. Sunday-Monday
an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, progressing eastward
through the first part of the work week, and brushing past the area
towards the end of the long term period. Between the Saturday
system, the Tuesday-Wednesday system centered to our north, and a
few weak shortwaves in between, at least parts of the area hang onto
daily chances for showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance.
Temperatures for the period are forecast generally in the upper 80s
and 90s with lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 959 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
north-northwest 10-20kts. Strongest gusts before 23z. By 03z
Thursday, southeast around 10kts, shifting southwest by 08z
Thursday.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
west-northwest 10-20kts through 02z Thursday, then
light/variable. By 13z, becoming northwest around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN