Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Issued at 828 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main change was to delay the onset of the higher chances for
rainfall until Sunday afternoon. New model data coming in is less
favorable for a broad area of rainfall developing on Sunday. The
saturated air that develops a wrap around band of precipitation in
the afternoon is becoming narrower compared to the previous model
data. Looks like the south half of the forecast area will be more
favorable for precipitation, but the band of rainfall may only be
20 or so miles wide north to south.

Still expecting fog to develop tonight, likely dense fog. The fog
is just northeast of the forecast area, a bit sooner than was
expected earlier in the shift. The east half to third will have
the lowest visibilities. Visibilities around a half mile are
expected in the fog.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies are
prevailing for just about all of the area as high pressure giving
the region a nice day to dry out from yesterday`s precipitation.
Some lingering cloud cover remains over far eastern zones...east of
Hill City. Where the cloud cover has been persistent...temps have
been affected to the tune of a 10 degree difference.
Currently...area temps are mainly ranging from the upper 40s thru
the 50s...with a light NNW wind. A few locales have hit the 60F

Going into tonight...a shift from the current wind regime to a more
ESE one will occur out ahead of approaching shortwave currently
moving into the west central Rockies. The shift to a more ESE
surface flow is expected to bring an increase in low level moisture
to the area from east to west. Model guidance does show this
increase in BL moisture...which will mean increasing clouds along
with the chance for fog. Based on latest model guidance have
expanded the areal coverage of fog after midnight tonight into
Sunday morning. Any fog will begin to erode east as cloud cover
increases from the west with shortwave approach. For overnight expect the western portion of the CWA to be slightly
colder than the east due to lack of radiational cooling east from
increasing clouds. Entire area will be mcloudy/cloudy by 12z
Sunday...capping low temps.

For Sunday...based on the model track of approaching cover expected to be most persistent south and
west as system track south of the CWA. Based on the cloud coverage
setup...expecting overalls highs to be slightly warmer than locales
south/west. Looking for a range in daytime highs from the mid 50s to
the lower 60s. For precipitation...models do differ on potential QPF
with this system...w/ bulk occurring south and east of the CWA as it
taps into deeper moisture away from the area. Nonetheless...have
continued the mention of light showers for the area...mixing with -
sw west in the early/mid morning hrs with no accum. Some instability
for the afternoon for the have also continued mention of
isolated thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Wednesday and Thursday: Much better model agreement compared to
yesterday at this time with regards to a cut off low that will
traverse the region to our south. The low remains nearly stacked
from H5 to H7 with an axis of instability stretching from southeast
to northwest ahead of it. Ongoing widespread showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two are expected through the day on Wednesday, into
Wednesday night and into Thursday. We could see a brief change over
to snow in the eastern Colorado counties before changing back to
rain after sunrise on Thursday. Overall, light to moderate showers
will prevail both days with initial QPF amounts near to just over
one inch, especially in areas south if Interstate 70. PW in the
region will be in the 0.70in to 0.80in range with fully saturated
profiles both days. Winds with this system will become gusty mainly
on Wednesday with the better chances of 30 plus mph wind gusts
remaining in the southwestern portions of the CWA. Temperatures will
reach the lower 50s on Wednesday with upper 50s expected Thursday.
Lows will fall into the lower to middle 30s.

Friday through Sunday: Dry weather is expected Friday in the wake of
the Wed/Thurs system. Shortwave ridging, albeit short lived, will
prevail through the day as another system approaches from the west.
This next system will bring another chance of rain to the region on
Saturday and Sunday; however, it will be located a bit further
southwest than the last system with much lower rainfall totals
expected. Highs Friday and Saturday will be near to slightly above
average with widespread upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Lows will
fall into the middle to upper 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK has IFR
conditions a few hours earlier than expected. Am expecting these
conditions to prevail into the morning hours before beginning to
clear. KGLD is not as straight forward. Was not confident enough
to bring the fog in earlier based on how fast KMCK went down, but
did not want to ignore the model that was catching the fog/stratus
the best. Looks like KGLD will have the worst conditions when the
winds turn to the east. Both sites will gradually improve in the




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