Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181019
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MCK BETWEEN
11-13Z...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL THEY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DO END UP FORMING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART




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