Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 242330
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
530 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Main forecast issues will be chances of precipitation and how cool
to make the temperatures tomorrow. Satellite showing broad troughing
over the western portion of the country with numerous shortwave
troughs embedded within this flow. The Gfs and Canadian were
starting the best with the upper jet. Models started out close and
well at mid levels.
Models differ on upper jet details at the beginning of the night.
The jet axis or some kind of lift starts over the northern and
western portions of the area during evening. By the end of the
night/early tomorrow morning the models come into better agreement.
At that time the area is affected by a left front quadrant. As the
day progresses, that lift transitions north and east and is out of
the area by the end of the day.
At mid levels it gets rather complicated as well. Mid level
shortwave moves into and through the area during the evening and
overnight hours. Negative theta-e lapse rates and some instability
aloft moves into the area. Model sounding are rather dry down low
and it may take a lot to saturate down to the ground. However what
has me a little concerned is the jet lift combined with the very
good theta-e lapse rates. So raised pops a little up north and
extended the slight chance pops a little further south and east.
There looks to be a decent amount of elevated cape around. That
combined with lapse rates gives me the confidence to have
thunderstorm through the night.
Tuesday will see highly variable conditions. There looks to be some
ongoing rainfall in the northeast in the morning. Then the mid level
wave that moves into the area deepens and splits as it sits on top
of our area. There looks to be a time period from late morning into
mid afternoon where not much precipitation is going. Pops should be
highest in the southwest. In the afternoon there looks to be enough
instability in the column to have thunderstorms or embedded
thunderstorms in the southwest portion and maybe a little north of
Nam is showing some fog in the morning and am not entirely sure
about that. Will definitely have stratus. Combination of cloud
cover and cold air advection should keep temperatures cool and I
may not have high temperatures cool enough.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017
The extended looks to be much cooler than what we have experienced
the past few weeks and will be wet through most of the period.
Tuesday night: Chance of precipitation, with some thunder, across
the area with the best chance occurring in our CO counties. Mainly
thunder and rain during the evening. As we go through the night,
precip may change to snow or ra/sn mix along and near the CO/KS
border as colder air moves in. Lows will be in the 30s areawide.
Wednesday-Wednesday night: Only dry day of the week. Upper level
ridging dominates the period with highs in the 50s and lows in the
Thursday-Saturday night: Series of shortwaves will move through the
area Thursday and Thursday night bringing a couple of rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Am not expecting severe weather with
these storms, but could see decent amounts of rain between 0.25-0.50
in. The main focus of the weekend will be a closed upper low moving
out of the Rockies on Friday afternoon. Most models, as of the 12Z
runs, track the low across southwestern Kansas and push it
northeastward. The GFS is the coldest solution, bringing greater
than 5 inches of snow in western portions of the CWA. ECMWF and CMC
have a rain/snow mix. Essentially have a blend of these solutions
with minor accumulations along and west of the CO/KS border. Likely
PoPs areawide Friday night by midnight. Areas along and west of Hwy
27 will have the best chance of seeing snow or a mix. Precip should
change back to all rain for everyone by early Saturday afternoon.
There will be another chance of a change over to snow Saturday
overnight with little to no accumulation expected at this time.
Total QPF amounts between 0.50-1.00 in. for Friday through Saturday
Temps will be below normal through this period. Coldest day will be
Saturday with highs struggling to get into the low 40s for areas
west of Hwy 27. Saturday night lows in the western half of the CWA
will probably require a freeze or hard freeze warning if models
continue with colder solutions.
Sunday: Precip exits region early Sunday morning. Things dry out and
highs top out in the low to mid 50s. Lows will again be in the 30s.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017
KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 10z
with winds from the east then northeast under 10kts. From 11z-17z
mvfr/possibly ifr cigs move in from the northwest behind a cold
frontal passage. Winds gust to 20kts or so from the north. After
18z vfr conditions return with winds from the north to northeast
around 12-13kts with some higher gusts. Could see a
shower/thunderstorm near/over the terminal around 03z-06z.
KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 10z
with winds from the north to northeast under 10kts. From 11z-19z
mvfr/possibly ifr cigs expected behind a cold front with winds
from the north gusting around 22kts or so at times. After 20z cigs
may improve to vfr on occasion with winds remaining from the north
near 13kts. Could see a shower/thunderstorm near/over the terminal
in the 03z-07z timeframe then again in the 12z-20z timeframe.