Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021315
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 13Z...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S
UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF LOW/MID CLOUDS. CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST
THRU THE DAY...HAMPERING TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR FORECAST HIGHS TO BE
REACHED. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY UPDATED FOR LATEST OBS TREND FOR
SKY/TEMPS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL SKIRT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE. SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...BUT SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW LARGE
H5/H7 RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. THE
LATEST ECMWF THOUGH DOES SHOW SOME WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STRUCTURE OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
REGION...AND THUS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SCENARIO DOES BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF IT
HOLDS...BUT LAST FEW FORECAST RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A DRY TREND WHICH
THE LATEST GFS SUPPORTS...SO WILL CONTINUE ALONG THESE LINES.

WITH THIS SETUP...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL LOOK FORWARD TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS WNW FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF H5/H7 RIDGE WILL BRING
DOWN 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM +1C TO +3C ON THURS/FRI...TO NEAR +4C TO
+6C FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING MOISTURE FEED...NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. COLDEST DAY OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THURSDAY AS CAA
WITH BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE 40S THURSDAY...THEN
INCREASING INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR NORMAL RANGING IN THE 20S MAINLY WITH SOME MID/UPPER TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

LOWER CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY IMPACT KGLD AND KMCK WITH FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
APPEARS MVFR WILL BE MOST LIKELY...THOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS IFR CEILINGS AT KGLD BY 18Z WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN COLORADO. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING TO SOUTHERLY
AT 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024



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