Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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749
FXUS63 KGLD 052155
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE
WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ANTICIPATE QUIET WEATHER WITH
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
WARMING LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM WEATHER PERSISTING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS WITH RECENT DAYS...DO NOT THINK
THIS IS COMPLETELY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE 10+
INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE CR
INITIALIZATION BY USING A 50% BLEND WITH BCCONSRAW AND A FEW OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. IN THE END...THIS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-4
DEGREES...SPECIFICALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT OF THE
RIDGE BLOCKING THE FLOW...NO DISTURBANCES SHOULD PASS THROUGH. ONE
THING TO MONITOR IS WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A STRONG JET OF
WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING INTO THIS
JET...WHICH WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST MAKE AN
ADJUSTMENT TOWARDS POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KMCK THROUGH MUCH THE DAY WITH KGLD SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH LESSER
COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT KGLD AND 8 TO 12 KT AT KMCK.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES...BECOMING WEST
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL



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