Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 091746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1046 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

Issued at 936 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

Just completed an update. Models having trouble resolving cloud
cover and temperature. Overall it looks like the models are too
cool this morning, especially the Nam which says it should be
overcast almost everyplace. Made some slight adjustments up.
Questions to address for upcoming forecast is the return/coverage
of stratus and possibly fog later this afternoon into tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 258 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

NW flow is still in place across the Central Rockies and Central
High Plains regions. A mid level shortwave trough is currently
moving across Colorado and Wyoming, in line to pass north of our
CWA.  At the surface, high pressure has retreated east of our CWA
with southerly flow in place across our CWa. Shallow cold air mass
is still in place backed up against front range in Colorado.
Stratus has developed within the region of southerly flow in
western and central Kansas just west of retreating high pressure.

Today-Saturday: Due to high cloud base and dry sub cloud layer I
am not anticipating any measurable precip in our northwest CWA
with passing shortwave trough, though some virga or a stray flurry
could be possible early this morning.

A forecast complication will be cloud covers impact on temperatures
through these periods as stratus possibly lingers over our eastern
CWA today and then possibly redevelops tonight. BL flow does shift
to the southwest today with strengthening of lee trough and this
should allow for drier BL air mass to advect from our southwest to
northeast. If stratus lingers in our northeast where WAA may not be
as strong, these locations may struggle to warm today. Confidence
is higher that highs get above freezing in the west based on
current model trends in BL flow.

Surface trough axis shifts eastward which allows further
moderation of the air mass in place over our CWA tonight and
Saturday, however this also results in a shift to easterly BL flow
near the Nebraska state line. This could allow further stratus or
even fog development. It`s hard to fully buy into fog signal due
to over influence of melting snow field in higher resolution
guidance, but pattern at least should support stratus
redevelopment. Guidance continues to trend lower on highs Saturday
particularly in the east likely due to the influence of this low
cloud signal. It still looks like most locations should be above
freezing with near 50 in our west.

Saturday night-Sunday night: A shortwave trough is still advertised
to pass just north of our CWA, with a weak cold front dropping
south by Sunday morning. Moisture advection is not impressive
with this system, and best forcing remains north. There is a very
inconsistent/weak precip signal in guidance. A few snow showers
(mixed with rain during the day) could occur, but precip would be
light and coverage is a question. Depending on extent of cloud
cover and peak CAA our highs may be a little optimistic Sunday and
we may actually see cooling temps in the afternoon. This will be a
consideration for adjustments as confidence increases in these

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

The main concern for next week continues to be the potential for
another arctic air mass to move into the Central High Plains.

Monday and Tuesday...On Monday, highs warm to the mid 40s with
return flow ahead of the cold front. Arctic air filters into the
region overnight Monday.Lows Monday night are forecasted to be in
the mid teens across much of the region. For Tuesday, highs are
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 20s under mostly cloudy skies
and lows in the single digits. There will be a slight chance of
snow mainly for counties north of I-70 during the evening and
overnight hours on Tuesday as well. Best chance of seeing snow
will be in in our northwest counties of Yuma CO, Cheyenne KS, and
Dundy NE. Little to no accumulation is expected at this time.

Wednesday and Thursday... For Wednesday, highs are forecasted to
be in the mid to upper 20s through most of the region. A slight
chance of some lingering light snow or flurries is possible for
the same previously mentioned northwest counties. Wednesday night
lows are forecasted to be around 10 for much of the area. For
Thursday, GFS model soundings are showing some decent low level
moisture across the area, but will choose to keep just a slight
chance of snow/flurries for southeastern portions of our CWA until
models come into better agreement. Thursday`s highs look to be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Keep in mind... There has been a colder trend to guidance the past
couple of days for the extended period and would not be surprised
if this trend continued. Wind chills may become an issue starting
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected during the early morning
hours. Southerly winds will be near 16 knots with gusts around 25
knots through 21z. Around 21z the winds should decrease and quit
gusting. Early in the evening the winds will become light and
variable then shift to southerly again at 5 to 10 knots. Around
10z mvfr conditions are expected and will last until 16z when
conditions become vfr again.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected until late in the period.
Around 10z conditions will become mvfr and last through the end of
the period.




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