Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191913
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
113 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main
monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days.

Regarding thunderstorm chances: Mean upper level jet stream and axis
of better deep moisture is well northwest of our CWA and
subsidence/much more stable air is in place. An axis of 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE may develop near the surface trough in eastern Colorado, but
lack of organized forcing and a strong CAP will likely preclude any
thunderstorm development this afternoon and tonight. A few models
show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but
quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Some
models are showing a slightly better precip signal by late Thursday
afternoon in far western Yuma county. Concerns with CAP strength and
unfavorable track from region of initation lowered confidence enough
to hold off on introduction of thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to
location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but
even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and
Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our
north/northeast. Heat advisory criteria is already occurring, with
temp trends faster/higher than yesterday. Models are actually
showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few
decrees warmer Thursday than today. Overnight lows are remaining
very warm in similar locations, and heat index values at night might
not drop below 75 for man locations in our east. After coordination
the decision was made to extend current advisory (same locations)
through tonight and into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Saturday and Sunday: Nearly zonal pattern will be in place across
the central Plains with very weak upper flow out of the west to west
northwest. Weak high pressure will build across the western States
on Saturday, moving eastward as we head into Sunday. There will be
enough instability along a cold front to allow thunderstorms to
develop Saturday afternoon and evening, persisting into Sunday as
this front stalls and lingers in the region. High temperatures will
top out in the 90s on Saturday and the 80s on Sunday as the front
influences the area.

Monday and Tuesday: Remnant theta-e boundary will be in place,
serving as a focus for thunderstorm development as we head into the
day on Monday. A shortwave is expected to develop along the upstream
side of the eastward moving ridge, providing lift from southwest to
northeast across the CWA Monday afternoon and evening. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms with this shortwave with the
possibility of a few strong to severe storms mainly confined to the
western half of the CWA given the current guidance. A slightly more
active pattern will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday as we will be
on the upstream side of the ridge axis, allowing occasional
shortwaves to traverse the region and increase thunderstorm chances
across the area. Moisture levels will remain relatively high as
monsoonal flow is expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For both KGLD and KMCK...Winds pick up this afternoon pushing to
12kt and greater with gusts over 20kt, predominantly from the
south. Winds should decrease below the 12kt mark near sunset at
both locations around 2Z. For clouds, with high pressure
dominating the weather, expecting clear skies or high cirrus
through the afternoon, becoming clear for the overnight.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ002>004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SME



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