Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020756
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF MUCAPE MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LLJ IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY 12Z AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR TODAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT...GFS INSISTS ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO SIGN OF THAT
DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH THE MODEL PLACES
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT
CAP/INVERSION NEAR 800MB WITH CIN AROUND 100 OR EVEN HIGHER ON
THE NAM SOUNDINGS. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS
AT 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. HOWEVER IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IF CONVECTION
WERE TO DEVELOP.

RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER
FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE VERY HOT
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN
HEATING. MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION DESPITE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CIN.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AS LLJ CRANKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE AREA WILL BE IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERSISTENT
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT SEEMS PROBABLE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH GFS BEING CONSISTENTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POSITION
OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH REORIENTING THE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. ALL GUIDNACE EVENTUALLY SHOWS
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TRANSIENT WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL FORCE LEE TROUGHING. HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER TYPE
TO THUNDER THOSE DAYS AFTER A PERIOD OF LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY AND
MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE CHANCE OF
STRATUS AT KGLD TONIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THIS THREAT SOUTH. LATEST NAM RUNS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
FOG AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FEW015 AS THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL STRATUS...LOWER CEILINGS OR INCLUDE
FOG. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AT KGLD BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BOTH SITES TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKEN AT 00Z. MOST CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KGLD. NEED TO MONITOR CHANCES OF ELEVATED STORMS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFTER 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...RRH


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