Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
201 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Main concern will be fire weather for tomorrow afternoon. The winds
will become light and variable late this afternoon into early this
evening. After that the winds will increase some in the west while
the winds in the east remain light enough to allow the temperatures
to drop to near or slightly below the coolest guidance. In this
scenario recently the low temperatures have been dropping below
Superblend and went in that direction.

For tomorrow...southerly return flow and warm air advection
increases over the area. Latest guidance supports the maxes the
forecast blend gave me. The gradient and 3 hour pressure falls
support breezy to near breezy conditions to the east of the Colorado
border. Refer to the fire weather section below on how this relates
to tomorrows fire weather.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Warm and dry weather is expected during the long term, with an upper
ridge dominating and a couple shortwaves passing off to the north
of the region. Temperatures remain above normal throughout the

Thursday night through Saturday night: Warmer air pushes into the
area Thursday night and Friday as the ridge continues to progress
east towards the Plains. Late Friday, a weak shortwave makes it to
the Rockies from the west coast and flattens the ridge. This
shortwave is expected to continue on to the northern Plains on
Saturday, sending a cold front south through the High Plains. A dry
frontal passage is still anticipated with moisture lacking in the
area. The ridge starts to redevelop Saturday night behind the

Sunday through Wednesday: Dry weather prevails on Sunday as the
ridge shifts east and another disturbance makes its way onto the
west coast. This system heads north of the area on Monday and the
area of high pressure slides to the southeastern CONUS. Another cold
front is sent south by late Monday, bringing cooler air to the
region in time for Tuesday as a new upper system forms on the west
coast. Southwesterly flow develops ahead of this shortwave trough,
which may bring some precipitation chances to the region midweek.

Temperatures: Highs fluctuate during the long term, but stay above
normal throughout the period. Temperatures will be the warmest on
Friday, in the low to mid 80s, nearing record highs in some
locations. Cooler air filters in by Saturday, bringing 70s back for
the weekend. Temperatures try to climb ahead of Monday`s cold front,
which brings the mid 60s to low 70s to the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low temperatures oscillate as well, ranging from the mid
30s to mid 50s across the region during this timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld...light
and variable will shift to the southwest and increase to near 10
knots around 06z. Around 15z those will increase to near 12 knots
with gusts approaching 20 knots. For Kmck...light and variable
winds are expected through the period.


Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

For Thursday...the lowest relative humidities will be over the
western side of our Colorado counties. Fortunately the lightest
winds will be over that area due to the surface axis being close by
and a lack of mixing. So no critical fire weather conditions are




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