Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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795 FXUS63 KGLD 012009 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 209 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather systems moves through during the late afternoon through overnight hours from west to east. All modes of severe weather are possible over the weekend. - A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and for some 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As storms move across the Palmer Divide, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 9 PM MDT for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Severe thunderstorm wind gusts up to 75 mph and up to 2 inch hail are the primary hazards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As of 1 PM MDT, we are beginning to see storms develop off the Front Range and Palmer Divide near the dryline, moving east. We are also starting to see some cumulus clouds develop on satellite across portions of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. The cumulus over the eastern half of the area we are watching for additional storm development out ahead of our main dryline storms. Instability is expected to continue to increase over the next few hours due to heating. Storms today are expected to be discrete supercells to clusters with strong westerly to northwesterly shear of 35-40 kts over the area through the evening. Large hail of 2+ inches is the primary concern with these storms along with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts given the DCAPE around 1100-1300 J/kg. A tornado can`t be ruled out, given the adequate shear to maintain rotating updrafts; however, confidence is low to medium. Heavy rain could lead to some flooding concerns as well with PWs of 0.7-1.2" over the area, especially once storms grow upscale into clusters, follow the slow right mover motion out of the northwest, or begin to train over the same areas. Storms are expected to exit the area between 2-6 AM MDT. Once the storms clear out, the area will likely be clear of any hazardous weather as any fog potential will be limited with the southerly winds. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Another active day is in store for tomorrow as a stronger shortwave swings across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening hours. High temperatures in the low 90s across the area will lead to even better destabilization than today with up to ~4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and less than 100 J/kg of CIN. Storms are expected to begin firing up along the dryline over Eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon hours. As storms move east into the area, storms north of I-70 are expected to merge with others in Western Nebraska to form a line. While all modes of severe weather will once again be possible, damaging straight line winds are a much bigger threat for our northeast counties which have been placed into an enhanced risk for tomorrow by SPC. Storms should exit the area a few hours after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 117 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 At the start of the long term period, flow aloft is out of the west- southwest before shifting northwesterly with progression of an upper level trough. In the low levels, low pressure situated to our south gradually progresses eastward, allowing precipitation chances to also taper off towards the east. Into Tuesday, zonal flow returns northwesterly as another trough progresses across the Rockies and through the Plains. A few afternoon showers/storms possible, primarily for our northern and eastern portions. As we head into mid- week, the dominant feature becomes a ridge of high pressure situated over the Desert Southwest, keeping us under northwesterly flow aloft, offering less in the way of storm chances but more in the way of hot summer-like temperatures. A few weak waves may move through the flow and allow for storm chances, but they`re currently low (<25%). High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to low 90s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. With temperatures warming up and conditions drying out, may see some elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns creep back in, will continue to monitor as this may be limited by recent rains and below threshold winds. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For KGLD... VFR conditions is forecast for the remainder of the period, though there is a 10% chance for fog tonight. As long as the winds are from the south to southwest tonight, fog is not expected to form. Otherwise, the other main concern is the potential for storms this afternoon and evening. The best time for storms is beginning around 23Z, but there is a 15% chance that storms could form prior to 23Z. Storms could be severe with very large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. For KMCK... Ceilings will continue to improve as the stratus deck erodes. The afternoon hours should be VFR with little concern for storms, but starting ~00Z-02Z is when storm chances increase. The storms could be severe with large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist the rest of the period after the storms, but will need to watch for a low chance (20-30%) of fog overnight into Sunday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Flooding concerns linger into the weekend. However, chances have lowered a tad compared to previous days as yesterday`s storms generally produced around an inch or less of rain. Soil moisture is now forecast to generally be 50% or less across the area. For today`s storms, they could produce heavy rain or a small hail and rain mix, but they should be moving quick enough to limit additional rainfall to 1.5 inches or less. The exception will be if a supercell develops and persists as the forecast speed of supercells later is very slow at 10 mph or less. This could lead to heavy rainfall in a concentrated area. For tomorrow`s storms, the overall chance is low unless storms cluster. Otherwise, fairly fast storm movement and the addition of some dry air will limit flooding potential. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...KMK SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...KMK HYDROLOGY...KAK