Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1241 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

After morning fog and low clouds erode, expecting partly sunny
skies. Lee trough/dry line will sharpen up during the afternoon
roughly along Hwy 25/83 from Culbertson to Scott City, following
the latest HRRR guidance. West of the dry line, still looking at
critical fire weather conditions as dew points plummet and winds
increase. As the upper trough begins to emerge from the southern
Rockies and temperatures cool aloft, coupled with very warm
surface temperatures, weak to moderate instability will develop
along and east of the dry line. However, that region also remains
capped for much of the afternoon, with only a very small window of
opportunity late in the afternoon for surface based convection to
initiate. So while confidence may be lacking and pops relatively
low, any storms that do develop will be in a highly sheared, low
moisture environment. LCLs will be very high, 10kft or above,
suggesting wind will be the primary threat with stronger storms,
with hail a secondary threat. Given the high LCLs, the tornado
risk seems rather low despite the good deep layer shear.

A fairly substantial dry slot overtakes the southern/eastern
areas later this evening which will end the thunderstorm threat.
After midnight, the upper low closes off and deepens in southwest
Kansas and a trowal develops on the backside, resulting in a
significant band of wraparound precipitation in northeast
Colorado. Rain will likely be changing to or mixed with snow
late, with far western areas of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties of
Colorado possibly seeing some accumulations. Confidence is rather
low given the warm surface temperatures, but will need to be
looked at again closely since there is the potential for several
inches of wet snow and blowing snow. This band of precipitation
will gradually move east through the day on Friday with
high/categorical pops. The precipitation could also mix down
strong winds to the surface late tonight in northeast Colorado,
and through the day on Friday in parts of northwest Kansas. Issued
a high wind watch for areas most likely to see the strongest
winds. Precipitation will wind down Friday night as the upper low
pulls away.

Skies will be clearing for Saturday as shortwave ridge rebuilds in
the wake of the upper low. Temperatures will rebound to near or
slightly above normal with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Several wx systems set to affect the Tri State region for the
extended period. The first will occur Friday night as wrap-around
moisture from exiting system will mainly affect northern zones thru
06z Saturday. Second system will be a quick moving shortwave for the
latter portion of the upcoming weekend into Sunday night. A large
cutoff H5 low then swings into the southwest portions of the country
by Tuesday shifting eastward into the Southern Plains into Thursday.
High pressure set to affect the region in between affecting systems.

For Friday night...CAA accompanying the wrap-around moisture will
keep a rw/sw mix or all -sw for NE Colorado as temps slide into
the 30s. Areas east of the Colorado border will see light rain as
temps do not drop to see any changeover before precip exits. For
the end of the weekend system...temps will remain in a range to
keep all areas as light rain showers. QPF expectations will reach
possibly in a range of 0.10-0.20" for these two systems combined.

The prolonged nature of the upcoming mid week system for next
Tuesday into Thursday will bring in ample Gulf moisture for a 0.75-
1.00" potential QPF range with some localized higher amounts...
especially west of Highway 83. Colder air wrapping into area Wed
night into Thursday will bring best chances for snow showers to mix
with expected rain. Light accumulation possible for western zones.

For temps...near to above normal highs expected with a range from
the mid 50s to the mid 60s...warmest timeframes on Saturday and next
Monday which do coincide with surface ridging arriving before
shortwaves. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s for most nights.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Aviation impacts at KGLD and KMCK include thunderstorm potential
this afternoon and evening, with widespread rainfall developing
late tonight in Colorado spreading over the terminals by 12Z.
Strong winds gusting 40-50kt will be possible at KGLD at the end
of the TAF period (Friday), with gusty winds at both terminals
today. Wind shifts will occur as a strong front moves through the
region with north winds prevailing after 12Z. IFR (or lower)
conditions will develop Friday morning as large surge of moisture
moves into the region. I can`t rule out snow or blowing snow at
KGLD. Confidence is not high on more than an mix at this time and
lower vis due to blowing snow is uncertain.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.



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