Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PER 700-500MB
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING VARYING
DEGREES OF SNOWFALL CHANCES TO THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT A
WARMING TREND.

MAY SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE -10 TO -16F RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER VERY POSSIBLY LESS THEN ADVERTISED. LOWS IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT QUICKLY EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AND
COLDER AIR AT THE END OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

SHOULDNT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY PUSHING THE COLDER AIR TO THE EAST. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS OF -10F TO -15F POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KGLD AND REMAIN
THERE AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT THE SITE. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY 18Z FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS


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