Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
106 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FA.  WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
5KTS.  DEWPOINTS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.  WITH TRENDS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH THE COOLEST READINGS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW FIELD IN THE
NORTHWEST FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. KGLD
AND KMCK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS



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