Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 112057
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
157 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Today-tonight...some cooler air backs into the area during the day
with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F (west) to 13F (east)
compared to yesterday. This would support highs in the low to mid
50s which is currently advertised in the forecast. Low temperatures
in the upper teens to low 20s. Northwest winds increase into the 20
to 30 mph range with higher gusts by late morning and continue
through mid to late afternoon. The combination of the strong winds
and low humidity supports the current Red Flag Warning area (see
fire weather section below).

Tuesday-Tuesday night...should see a few more mid and high level
clouds through the period moving down from the north. Much less wind
compared to Monday with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest.
850mb temperatures warm about 5F to 10F across the area supporting
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s (warmest across the west). Low
temperatures above normal with mid 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...another cold front moves through the
area with daytime winds from the northwest in the 20 to 25 mph range
with higher gusts. 850mb temperatures cool up to 6F from Tuesdays
forecast values supporting highs in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
handled well in the current forecast. Low temperatures in the mid
20s to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Wednesday through Monday the dry pattern and above normal
temperatures, with a few windy days, will continue.  A couple upper
level short wave troughs move over the forecast area in the
northwest flow, but the environment is too dry to support much more
than cloud cover. The strongest upper level short wave trough for
this period moves through Saturday night/Sunday. However by the time
the dew point depressions are low enough to start supporting
precipitation, the lift will be to the east.

The main focus for this period is the winds.  Wednesday and Thursday
will be the windiest days; Thursday having the strongest winds with
speeds similar to today.  Along with the winds, there will be a
potential for hazardous fire weather conditions Wednesday as
relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent.  Thursday the
relative humidity values will be higher, around 30 percent, but the
strong winds will still create a volatile environment with regard
to fire weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. NW/NNW winds will
generally be sustained at 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots this
afternoon, though 35G45 knots will be possible at times in the
18-22Z time-frame during peak heating/mixing. Expect winds to
decrease to 15-20 knots AOA sunset with loss of insolation /onset
of the nocturnal inversion/ and a weakening MSLP gradient. Winds
should further weaken to ~10 knots or less overnight as the
nocturnal inversion strengthens and MSLP gradient further weakens.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT



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