Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 031128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S WEST UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S EAST AS THE AREA
SITS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. THAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER EASTWARD THRU
12Z THIS MORNING...AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA AS AREA WILL SIT BETWEEN A BROAD H5 RIDGE TO OR
EAST...AND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THAT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ACCOMPANYING THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LEE-SIDE TROUGHS THAT MOVE NORTHEAST OFF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOCUS/TRAJECTORY PF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL PUT BEST CHANCES FOR TRW OVER WESTERN ZONES. STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME ON THRU THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

850 MB TEMPS THRU THIS TIMEFRAME WILL RANGE FROM +29C TO
+32C...GIVING THE REGION A STEADY DOSE OF MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGH
TEMPS...TEMPERED ONLY BY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FROM ANY TRW
DEVELOPMENT AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SPOT 100F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
ZONES AWAY FROM EXPECTED CLOUD COVER INFLUENCE.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BLOCKING ANY MAJOR INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE THE REGION RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S THRU THE MAX HEATING TIMEFRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES... MOVING THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AND
EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
MID WEEK. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY... AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASS... LOOK FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS
AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. FEW-SCT250 FOR MOST OF THE TIMEFRAME WITH SCT060 AFT 18Z
AND VCSH..ESPECIALLY AFT 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS SW AROUND 10KTS THRU
MIDDAY THEN SE 15G25KTS...THEN SSW AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN


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