Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132020
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
REMNANT MCV CENTERED NEAR TRIBUNE FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH
IS ENHANCING CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA WHICH ALSO INITIATED A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF LIFT ELSEWHERE...AS ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IS INDICATED IN QVECTORS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BY
MONDAY EVENING WITH BETTER COVERAGE TIED TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL
EAST OF THE CWA. I LIMITED COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MONDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW (CENTERED OVER
GREAT LAKES) AND WILL BRING MUCH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VERY GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS
(ORIGINATING IN THE GULF) WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
OF PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
(1.2-1.5")...AND TOTAL EVENT QPF VALUES AT LEAST 1" OR HIGHER.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOME WARMING (MID 70S
IN THE WEST...LOW 70S EAST).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION (POSSIBLY MORE OF A HEAVY
DRIZZLE THAN RAIN) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH A COOL AIR MASS ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL LIKELY REACH A RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY.
IN FACT IF WE REMAIN SOCKED IN ALL DAY WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS MUCH
WARMER THAN 60F. I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN WED AND MAY STILL BE TOO WARM
(CURRENTLY HAVE MID-UPPER 60S). AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AND SLIGHT MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. SOME GUIDANCE STILL LINGERS LIGHT
PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH OTHER THAN A
LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MOST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION...SO I LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND SHOULD SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND COMBINES IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS RANGE IT IS HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS SO
I LIMITED POPS TO 20/30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT EITHER
TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT BETTER
WITH THE FRONT SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS AND EXPECTED TIMING
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024





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