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000
FXUS63 KGLD 102345
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NW FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS OF KANSAS. MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME ON WV ASSOCIATED WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE LEADING EDE OF
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTH ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EXTENDS EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND HAS SUPPORTED GOOD WAA AND MIXING ACROSS
OUR CWA WHERE TEMPS HAVE FINALLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN 6 DAYS.

DUE TO SNOW PACK BETTER SNOW PACK IN NE PARTS OF OUR CWA MIXING HAS
BEEN LIMITED AND TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO APPROACH FREEZING. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE FURTHER DETERIORATION OF
SNOW PACK ACROSS OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR AREA GOING FORWARD.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL SWING SOUTH THEN
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER
OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR CWA...HOWEVER WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 12-15KFT I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
IN SW NEBRASKA...HOWEVER ITS HARD TO SAY IF THIS WOULD EVEN REACH
THE SURFACE. WITH A COLD AIR SLOSHING BACK OVER OUR CWA TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF ONCE AGAIN...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WINDS AROUND 10-12KTS...CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OTHERWISE WE WOULD HAVE
SEEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLER THE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE  WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY SINCE WE
COULD SEE A GRADIENT OF MID 30S IN THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
AFTERNOON WAA AND GOOD MIXING TO MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNDER VARYING DEGREES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE
FORECAST AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF BRIEF COLD AIR
INTRUSIONS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE FIRST WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. A
SECOND SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL EFFECT MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR WEST TO
BRING THAT SHALLOW AIR MASS THOUGH THE COLD AIR USUALLY WINS IN
THESE SITUATIONS AND HAVE HEDGED TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY ALL MODELS SHOW THE COLD
AIR SCOURED OUT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
COOLER GLANCING BLOW MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH KGLD AND KMCK AROUND 01Z AND RESULT IN
A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO AROUND 12-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LESSEN LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB