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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261711
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1111 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Update to forecast to remove further mention of patchy fog in
various northern/southern locales. Low clouds do remain in these
areas so have adjusted cloud cover wording until the low clouds
burn off. This will affect our Nebraska zones and far southern
zones. Temps are showing a several degree differential in sunny
areas versus psunny/cloudy locales. Will wait another hour or so
to adjust daytime highs in affected areas. Should they burn off
soon...do expect quick rebound under full sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Today-tonight...once again we find ourselves under quite a bit of
moisture below 700mb through the day and into the evening before
lifting east/northeast away from the area toward sunrise Tuesday
morning. For the shorter term will have to deal with stratus and fog
as abundant boundary layer moisture has moved into the area from the
south. Am expecting this to continue through mid morning before
dissipating. However, looks like it redevelops after midnight.

Looking at precipitation chances, sufficient instability is in place
despite meager mid level moisture. NAM showing small pockets of
moisture moving down from the north supporting at least some
isolated thunderstorms across the eastern 1/2 of the area. Any
activity should be south of the area during the early to mid evening
hours. Will have to watch the our Colorado counties during the
evening as well as front range convection earlier in the period
tries to move east-southeast into the area. After midnight elevated
cin increases rather substantially and should limit any further
development.

High temperatures today in the low 80s. Low temperatures in the mid
50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...southerly winds quickly increase in the
morning becoming sustained in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts through the late afternoon. Models continue to advertise an
upper trough axis to move into far eastern Colorado in the 3PM MDT
to 6 PM MDT timeframe with showers and thunderstorms possible. The
trough axis continues east through midnight and should be out of the
area by if not before sunrise. 850mb temperatures from the past 5
days support high temperatures in the low to upper 90s while nearly
all other guidance is several degrees cooler. Wont make any
significant adjustments to forecast at this time and stay the course
with readings around 90/low 90s. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60 in far eastern Colorado with low to upper 60s elsewhere.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper flow shifts to zonal behind
Tuesday nights system. Models bring a weather disturbance into far
eastern Colorado in the 3PM MDT-6PM MDT timeframe supporting current
forecast of thunderstorms. This disturbance also moves east across
the area during the night providing a chance for
showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s. Low temperatures again in the mid 50s to near 60 in far eastern
Colorado with low to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Thursday: Looks to be another day with the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon hours through the overnight.
Model soundings show MUCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg, DCAPE near 1700
J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear of 35-50kt across the area. Damaging
winds and hail look to be the biggest threats with any storms that
form. With PWATs around 1.50 inches, will also have to watch for the
possibility of heavy rain accompanying storms during the evening.

Friday-Sunday: Weak cold front pushes through the area late Thursday
or early Friday. Will have a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night. Models differ for the rest of the
period. GFS is showing cooler daytime temps and wetter conditions
through Sunday evening than the ECMWF. GFS maintains NW flow aloft
over the area Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF moves upper
level ridging into the area which creates a decent amount of
subsidence over the CWA. Forecast is essentially a blend of the two
on temps and PoPs. Should be noted that if the GFS verifies, CWA
could see weekend conditions very similar to this past weekend with
cooler temps, cloud cover, and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period w/ a scattered
low/mid cloud mix. Winds...W 5-10kts thru 21z then ESE around
10kts. By 14z Tuesday...S 10-20kts. LLWS 05z-14z Tuesday
160@40kts.


For KMCK...VFR conditions thru the forecast period w/ a scattered
to broken low/mid cloud mix. Winds...light/variable thru
1930z...then ENE around 10kts thru 08z Tuesday. By 08z...ESE
5-10kts increasing to 10-20kts by 14z. LLWS 08z-14z 140@35kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...JN