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000
FXUS63 KGLD 121733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING ON
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A DRY AND COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH
CONSOLIDATING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT...BUT BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY...NO PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THERE. MODELS BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE PROFILES VIA MODEL
RAOBS...HAVE OPTED WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE EVENING CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THOUGH GFS
QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BRING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.

MODELS DIVERGE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY.
ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A DECENT SOLUTION SPREAD...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY DROPS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF
500 MB FLOW LATELY...THINK THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AREA SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPED POPS AFTER THAT.

WEST COAST 500 MB RIDGE WILL NOSE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY FOR DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER. BY TUESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE AGAIN APPARENT
WITH GFS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MONDAY...WHEN WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND KMCK
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WEST WIND WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN TURN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS