


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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887 FXUS63 KGLD 020519 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1119 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm potential returns Friday continuing possibly into next week. - Highs in the 90s throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Today into tonight... Expected late day focused line of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over northeast CO drifting southeastward into northwest KS the primary concern will be the potential of 40 to 60 mph gusts. Latest mesoanalysis and short-term forecast guidance indicating that round the 4-corners H5 ridge a weak-wave impulse will transcend over our forecast area ahead of which there are already indications of a weak surface frontal boundary along the front-range collocated with low-level moisture transport. An uptick in precipitable water within the column through which low-mid level lapse rates are steep, with daytime heating we should see erosion of the cap and development of instability. Inverted-V sounding setup, with high base thunderstorms expected, evaporative cooling through the column, it is no surprise to see downdraft CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. But organized updrafts and core-lofting is somewhat in question. Of certainty is the better environment over northeast CO with attendant increase in low-mid level winds with aforementioned H5 weak impulse. Yet against N drifting sub-tropical energy over OK / TX ahead of a dominant trof axis over CA, higher mid-level heights are maintained over a good chunk of our area and areas around northeast KS look to be in favorable regions of subsidence. A squeeze play. Marginal outlook for thunderstorms per Storm Prediction Center, no surprise to see the greater threat north of our area with expected dynamics. But again an eye on northeast CO. S winds prevailing with gusts up to 30 mph as the atmosphere mixes down momentum as high as 10 kft agl, especially if the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the mid-level weak wave impulse. Highs into the low 90s with mostly clear conditions prevailing. Monitoring overnight lows with remnant cloud cover expected from lingering daytime thunderstorms. Where it rains may need to monitor for low stratus, maybe some patchy fog in low-lying areas. Wednesday into Wednesday night... Looking fairly quiet. Weakening W CONUS trof axis out ahead of which subtropical moisture from the OK / TX region is being usurped N, an expectation that subsidence will prevail yielding dry weather. S winds continue to prevail, breezy, with the potential for gusts up to around 25 mph as the atmospheric column mixes out upwards of 10 kft yet again. Highs around the low 90s with lows into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Potentially active pattern late week into the following week. H3-5 trof across western N America weakens N as the summer-time pattern evolves with a monsoonal high across the 4-corners region of the CONUS. It`s during the evolution we see a return of 1.0 to 1.5 inch precipitable waters across the central plains and midwest out ahead of a series of disturbances that train through the broader SW to an evolving zonal pattern. It`s within this pattern that wave impulses will invigorate a more organized convective weather event for Friday seemingly east of our forecast area. Thereafter for the rest of the weekend into early next week heat and instability will prevail upon which any lift and forcing mechanisms, if present, will invigorate additional storm activity. So, in brevity, organized storms for Friday in our vicinity. A close eye on a likely evolving dryline out ahead of which instability will prevail. Better shear parent with an anticipated mid-level trof axis makes the case for organized storm activity. Just a bit too early to say with any certainty on convective mode and potential threats. For the weekend into next week, continued instability beneath the evolving zonal pattern that we`ll have to watch for any dips with energy from the N in invigorating shower and thunderstorm activity across our area. This as a frontal boundary will likely remain over the N CONUS along which low level winds overnight will focus meso- scale convective storm systems sweeping southeastward away from our region so will have to keep an eye out for any potential influences. As the previous forecaster mentioned, a messy pattern, prevailing S winds, upsloping both heat and instability. Wash, rinse, repeat of daily shower and thunderstorm activity in a weak-sheared environment yielding a low risk for any severe weather. Highs around the low 90s with lows down in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1109 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Skies are forecast to slowly clear through the night and then remain mostly clear. Winds around 200ft have been observed to be around 30 kts as of 05Z. With the forecast calling for speeds around 35-40 kts, be alert for low level wind shear through 13Z. After 13Z, winds are forecast to remain from the south near the surface with speeds around 15 kts and gusts between 20-30 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...KAK