897
FXUS63 KGLD 011918
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
118 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather
  systems moves through during the late afternoon through
  overnight hours from west to east. Severe weather and locally
  excessive rainfall threats continue.

- A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and for some
  90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

This morning, the showers from earlier this evening have finally
pushed out of the area. Cloud cover is beginning to clear from west
to east. However, fog development has become more likely for the
eastern half of the area with winds from the east and continued
moisture advection. The showers and storms did interrupt the fog
with Hill city going from 1/4 to 5 mile visibility, but there is a
good chance the fog will thicken again and persist until after
sunrise.

By the noon hour, skies should be mostly clear across the area with
temperatures beginning to warm into the 80`s. Will need to watch the
early afternoon hours for storm development as convective
temperature is forecast to be around the mid 80`s which could fire
off storms as early as 1pm MT. Otherwise, the main driver for storms
looks to be a shortwave moving through the zonal flow from west to
east this evening. This shortwave looks to be a little more
pronounced which well help storms move all the way across the area.

For today`s severe weather chances, the initial storms that form
will have the best chance of producing hail up to 2.5 inches similar
to yesterday`s storms over the Palmer Divide. As storms progress
east and cluster, the threat for hail above 2 inches should
decrease, but hail above an inch and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be
possible pretty much across the area. A tornado or two could be
possible with a well organized storm, but low level shear and
vorticity continues to be forecast to be a bit on the low side. In
regard to flooding, flooding chances will be low unless storms train
over an area or unless a long lived supercell can develop. The
bunkers right motion is forecast to only be 5-10 kts compared to the
downshear and mean wind around 25-35 kts which would increase the
risk for prolonged heavy rain and flooding.

For tonight, storms should move out within a few hours of midnight
unless supercells linger. After that, will need to watch for fog
again as winds may initially have an easterly component. However,
winds should be more southerly closer to sunrise with a surface low
closer to the area which will lower fog chances.

Tomorrow, a bit more of a pronounced trough is forecast to move
through the Rockies and through the area. This will push the surface
low closer to the area by the afternoon hours, and then through
later in the day. With the strong southerly to southwesterly winds
ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to be relatively hot
with highs reaching the low 90`s. The winds could also bring in some
drier air from the west which would begin to lower dewpoints into
the 30`s for Eastern Colorado. Given recent rains, am not currently
to concerned with the potential for explosive fire growth, however
critical conditions could be met.

For the later afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to
fire up again with the surface low advancing and a dryline in
Eastern Colorado. Any area behind the dryline will be unlikely to
see storms fire up. For the rest of the area, all severe hazards are
possible again, though will need to see how much dry air intrudes
into the area as the flooding threat may be less likely. Will need
to watch for wind gusts above 75 mph with DCAPE forecast to be above
1500 J/KG and a potential clustering of storms or a line of storms.

Monday, the zonal flow is forecast to set up over the area again
while a broad area of low pressure lingers along the Front Range.
With little to no cold air advection following the prior day,
temperatures are forecast to remain hot around 90. Storms will still
be possible Monday, but the forecasted intrusion of more dry air has
chances currently below 20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

At the start of the long term period, flow aloft is out of the west-
southwest before shifting northwesterly with progression of an upper
level trough. In the low levels, low pressure situated to our south
gradually progresses eastward, allowing precipitation chances to
also taper off towards the east. Into Tuesday, zonal flow returns
northwesterly as another trough progresses across the Rockies and
through the Plains. A few afternoon showers/storms possible,
primarily for our northern and eastern portions. As we head into mid-
week, the dominant feature becomes a ridge of high pressure situated
over the Desert Southwest, keeping us under northwesterly flow
aloft, offering less in the way of storm chances but more in the way
of hot summer-like temperatures. A few weak waves may move through
the flow and allow for storm chances, but they`re currently low
(<25%). High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to low 90s with
lows in the 50s to low 60s. With temperatures warming up and
conditions drying out, may see some elevated to near-critical fire
weather concerns creep back in, will continue to monitor as this may
be limited by recent rains and below threshold winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For KGLD... VFR conditions is forecast for the remainder of the
period, though there is a 10% chance for fog tonight. As long
as the winds are from the south to southwest tonight, fog is not
expected to form. Otherwise, the other main concern is the
potential for storms this afternoon and evening. The best time
for storms is beginning around 23Z, but there is a 15% chance
that storms could form prior to 23Z. Storms could be severe
with very large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.

For KMCK... Ceilings will continue to improve as the stratus
deck erodes. The afternoon hours should be VFR with little
concern for storms, but starting ~00Z-02Z is when storm chances
increase. The storms could be severe with large hail and wind
gusts to 70 mph. Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist the
rest of the period after the storms, but will need to watch for
a low chance (20-30%) of fog overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Flooding concerns linger into the weekend. However, chances have
lowered a tad compared to previous days as yesterday`s storms
generally produced around an inch or less of rain. Soil moisture
is now forecast to generally be 50% or less across the area.

For today`s storms, they could produce heavy rain or a small
hail and rain mix, but they should be moving quick enough to
limit additional rainfall to 1.5 inches or less. The exception
will be if a supercell develops and persists as the forecast
speed of supercells later is very slow at 10 mph or less. This
could lead to heavy rainfall in a concentrated area.

For tomorrow`s storms, the overall chance is low unless storms
cluster. Otherwise, fairly fast storm movement and the addition
of some dry air will limit flooding potential.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...KMK
HYDROLOGY...