350
FXUS63 KSGF 051738
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will exit the area this morning.

- Drier conditions are then expected through Friday with near
  normal temperatures.

- Pattern change for the weekend expected with potential for a
  few rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.
  Slight risk for flooding Friday night through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis revealed a shortwave trough pushing through
the region which was associated with a large upper low across
southern Canada. A 30kt low level jet was lifting north into the
area and was continuing to support a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving through the area. Instability and shear
were weak therefore the severe threat has ended however PW
values around 1.8in has created efficient rainfall rates. A
cold front with drier air was currently pushing into western
Missouri.

Today through Tonight: The showers and storms will continue to
move through the area through sunrise, likely exiting the
eastern ozarks by 9am if not before. Frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall will continue with this activity. The
cold front will be pushing through the area this morning which
will switch the winds to the north, ushering in cooler and drier
air aloft. Surface dewpoints will be dropping into the 50s
today with high temps in the lower 80s. Skies will slowly clear
from northwest to southeast with full sunshine expected for the
afternoon hours. High pressure will slide south of the area
tonight with a brief switch of the winds to the southwest. Lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s are likely.

Thursday: Shortwave energy across the northern US will push
another front into the area Thursday morning with a wind shift
to the north. This will reinforce the drier air aloft however
with plenty of sunshine high temps should reach the lower to
middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday Night through Friday: Surface high pressure will settle
overhead which will likely lead to the coolest morning we have
experienced in a while with many locations in the lower to
middle 50s by sunrise Friday. A mid level ridge will be
developing southwest of the area with our area remaining in
northwest flow aloft. Dry conditions are expected for Friday.

Friday Night through the weekend: Ensembles continue to suggest
an active/unsettled/wet period. This is due to northwest flow
aloft allowing for energy to slide southeast and interacting
with a stationary front and nocturnal low level jets. The
position of the front will be critical as MCS`s will likely
follow those along with any instability gradients. The first
system to watch will be Friday night as a low level jet develops
across Oklahoma and potentially stretches into Kansas. Showers
and thunderstorms would likely develop along the nose of this
jet and ride down to the southeast towards the area. Given the
uncertainty in the exact location of this system, precip chances
remain a modest 40-50% heading into Saturday morning however
ensemble cluster analysis indicates that these pops will likely
increase with future updates. WPC has a slight risk for
excessive rainfall/flooding during this timeframe due to the
potential for storms to move over the same areas parallel upper
level flow with the front.

This would have a big impact on temps Saturday with the NBM
indicating the potential for highs to be either in the upper 70s
or middle 80s. There are indications that the Saturday morning
cluster of storms may push the front a little farther south by
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This would then set up that
overnight cluster of storms a little farther south, perhaps even
just southwest of the area however ensembles suggest it will be
very close to our area. Therefore WPC continues the excessive
rainfall potential for our area through Saturday night. While
there is the potential for several inches of rainfall with these
rounds of storms, it will all be dependent on the daily track
of these systems. The NBM probability for 1 inch or more of
rainfall over the whole weekend is currently around 40% however
this is over a broad area of southwest Missouri and likely wont
capture convective/mesoscale elements until we get closer.
Those with outdoor plans this weekend, especially on area
riverways will closely need to monitor the forecasts.

Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles then push the upper trough
south into the eastern US which will push the front through the
area, creating drier and cooler conditions. Highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s may occur if this pattern holds up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A few lingering low clouds remain in the south/southwest part
of the area as showers and storms have completely exited. These
ceilings should improve to VFR conditions within the next hour
or two, and will remain so for the rest of the period.
Northwesterly winds of 10 knots will switch to southwesterly
winds of 5 knots or less this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch/Kenny