Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292016

316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.




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