Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241802
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and
Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye








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