Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 062142
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
442 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

An upper level flat ridge is currently situated over the southern
states with a short wave trough over the Appalachians. At the
surface, a cold front extended from northern Missouri through
south central Kansas into the Texas panhandle. A very moist
tropical airmass was in place with PWAT values in the 1.5-1.75" range.
Widely scattered pulse storms had developed over the southern and
eastern sections of the Ozarks this afternoon.

The cold front will make its way southeastward this evening with
the front situated along the I-44 corridor by 12z on Tuesday. A
line of strong to severe storms will be possible this evening with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Most of the heaviest rainfall will occur along and behind the
front due to a combination of weak short wave moving out of the
Rockies...the slowing of the surface frontal boundary itself and
the development of a south to southwesterly low level jet setting
up overnight. The front will be a focus for low level convergence
with PWAT values near 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

On Tuesday...the short wave moving up out of the southern Rockies
and along the surface front will induce a low along the surface
front which will enhance the rainfall. The strong low level
winds...slow cell motions...and repeated cell development will
create an environment for excessive rainfall across the region.
Rainfall amounts of two to four inches with locally higher amounts
will be possible. Clouds and rain will also keep daytime high
temperatures down in the 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainfall will continue on Wednesday but with lighter amounts. By
Thursday...the upper level flat ridge to build and retrograde to
the west. As it does...the surface will begin to meander northward
bringing the rainfall to an end.

As the high builds westward...expect a dry period through the
weekend with a return to more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Clouds have started to thicken and lower across the region late
this morning. MVFR conditions are likely throughout much of the
period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop this afternoon. Cig/vis may drop off close to IFR range
in heavier storms. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected to spread across the area from west to east
tonight/overnight. Lighter rain is forecast Tuesday morning along
with possible IFR cigs and MVFR VIS. Maybe some improvement by the
end of the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Frye






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