Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 290522
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A frontal boundary will slowly approach southern Missouri from the
west overnight and Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms can be expected ahead of this feature late tonight
and early Saturday morning. Thunderstorm re-development will then
be possible in the afternoon with additional storms then possible
again later Saturday night. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms. Surface winds will remain out of the
southeast tonight before shifting to the south and then southwest
on Saturday. Winds will generally remain below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann


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