Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue during this
period. A sfc ridge that extends from the Great Lakes to the lower
MS Vly and ARKLATEX regions will shift a bit to the east. Some
slight increase in low level moisture may aid in some
isolated afternoon/early evening showers/tstms Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A high amplitude/static upper level pattern over us now with a
deep trough over the western CONUS and ridge over much of the east
will gradually change with time as a short wave and associated sfc
front move through the upper Midwest Tue/Wed. The trailing sfc
front is expected to move southeast through our area Tue, but
the drier push of air behind the front will be more gradual moving
into the area Wed. The better support for showers will be off to
our north with the shortwave and to our southwest with better
instability and a stalling sfc front. We will continue to carry
shower/tstm chances at times through Wed with the overall best
chances Tue-Tue night-early Wed. Chances for severe storms or
flooding look slim to nil. Some areas may not get measurable

There is good agreement with global models with a split upper
flow pattern developing late in this fcst period as a shortwave
moves from Canada into the Great Lakes. We will be in the northern
stream with a dry cool nw flow pattern with more seasonable
temperatures Thu-Fri, and potentially below normal temperatures
by Day 7 Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

An upper low will drift westward underneat the ridge tomorrow into
the lower Mississippi valley region with some energy moving across
the Ozarks. Will be a better chance for widely scattered
convection, though not enough confidence in coverage at the TAF
points to mention yet. Will keep things in VFR for now.




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