691
FXUS63 KDDC 212315
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms across
  west central Kansas.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across much of
  southwest Kansas this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough lifting
northeast into the Upper Midwest ahead of a broader scale trough
transitioning east through the Central Rockies. Near the surface, a
cold front is pushing southeast into northern Oklahoma.

There is a 20-30% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across
west central Kansas early in the period as the SREF shows an upper
level shortwave trough pushing east through the Colorado Rockies into
the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas this evening.
Although instability will be limited as northerlies continue to funnel
in drier air into the region, CAMs do suggest shower/thunderstorm
development early this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject
east out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with H7 frontogenetic
banding developing in wake of the cold front pushing southward into
the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma. The latest HREF indicates
a very minimal 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an
inch across west central Kansas and a small portion of southwest
Kansas near the Colorado border by early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures are forecast to be a little below seasonal tonight as
surface high pressure moving in from the west helps reinforce a cooler
air mass across the region. The HREF paints a 60-70% probability of
lows dropping below 50F in west central Kansas to only a 30-40%
probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central Kansas.
Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with a cooler air
mass slow to erode across western Kansas due to a slowly departing
surface high to the east, returning south-southeasterlies mid/late
afternoon. The HREF indicates an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding
70F in west central Kansas to an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding
75F in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The next reasonable chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms will be late
Thursday/early Friday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper
level trough swinging eastward through the Northern Rockies Thursday,
and farther into the Northern Plains Thursday night, setting up an
increasingly difluent west-southwest flow aloft across the Western
High Plains. In response to the approaching system, surface low
pressure is projected to develop/deepen in eastern Colorado Thursday
afternoon with an attendant sharpening dryline extending south into
the Texas Panhandle, then advancing eastward Thursday evening. Ample
moisture return ahead of the advancing dryline, and subsequent cold
front from the northwest, will help push surface dewpoints up into
the 60s(F), increasing instability. Although timing/track remain
uncertain, thunderstorm development is expected late afternoon/evening
as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting
with the aforementioned dryline/front. The best chance for storms
will be across central/south central Kansas where the NBM paints
a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early
Friday morning. Much drier air filling in behind the advancing
dryline will keep much of southwest Kansas dry. Spotty precip
chances (20%) may linger into Saturday/Sunday as a relatively
weak upper level perturbation quickly moves through the Western
High Plains within a fairly zonal flow aloft.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Thursday as prevailing
southerlies enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing
H85 temperatures well up into the mid/upper 20s(C) by late afternoon.
The NBM shows an 80% probability of of highs exceeding 80F in central
and south central Kansas with an 80% probability of highs climbing
above 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite
as warm Friday in wake of the cold frontal passage, but temperatures
should rebound a little Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Scattered thunderstorms ahead of an approaching upper level
trough will weaken as they move across west central Kansas
(around the Garden City area) between 00Z and 03Z Wednesday.
Cloud bases with these storms will range from 6000 to 12000ft
AGL. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will then cross
southwest Kansas between 05Z and 10Z Wednesday, with cloud
bases as low as 3000 to 6000ft AGL. Following the passage of the
upper level trough early Wednesday morning, skies will clear
from northwest to southeast. Northerly winds at 10 to 15 knots
overnight will decrease to less than 10 knots during the day on
Wednesday as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into
western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert