671
FXUS63 KDDC 281019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
this weekend.

- Winds will generally be from an easterly to southerly
  direction throughout the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few showers/embedded thunderstorms are expected across the
northern and eastern portions of the CWA this morning. I have placed
low pops in to account for this but believe most places will remain
dry. Otherwise expect mid level cloudiness to increase
throughout the day with winds at the surface from the
southeast. A weak shortwave is then expected to move out of the
Rockies this evening and into western Kansas. This should create
enough lift for thunderstorms to form across eastern Colorado
this afternoon and trek into western Kansas this evening. A few
of these storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concern. These storms should weaken as they head eastward
overnight. Another slight chance of thunderstorms will be
possible Wednesday as another weak disturbance moves through the
area. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds form the
southeast. As for temperatures, highs today look to only reach
into the low 80s with lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Highs tomorrow are only expected to reach around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Ensemble models continue to bring a chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms to western Kansas through the long term forecast. This
is due to a series of shortwaves being ejected into the Plains from
an upper level long wave trough west of the area. Moisture in the
lower levels will continue to pool across the area during this time
frame with continued easterly to southerly winds each day. Being the
peak of the severe season there could be a few days where severe
weather will be possible. Confidence is low on which days will bring
the highest risk. Chances of measurable precipitation looks to
be the highest Thursday night into Friday then confined to
central Kansas over the remainder of the long term forecast. As
for temperatures, highs will generally be in the upper 70s into
the 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout today with increasing
mid level cloudiness. Winds will generally be from the east to
southeast gusting to around 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42