Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE NAM MODEL SEEMED TO OUTPERFORM THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIP PLACEMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AS A GUIDE IN COMBINATION WITH CURRENT
TRENDS TO PLACE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REST
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE WHETHER TO
EXTEND EITHER IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE OR DROP THE ADVISORY
ALTOGETHER AT 4 PM. AT THIS TIME, EXTENSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY. THE NAM INDICATED AN INTSENSIFICATION OF FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NON
FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FOR VERTICAL MOTION. ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM THE DISSIPATION OF VERTICAL MOTION, CLOUD
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SEES A BUMP IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH THE NAM SEEMS TO REFLECT), AS SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE WELL ENOUGH MIXED AND SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT AT THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
SATURATED BEHIND THIS FRONT INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID WEEK AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO A LOW AND EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 30S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BELOW ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS
INCREASING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A VERY QUIET PATTERN WILL DOMINATE WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. SPECIFICALLY,
THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY, WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED VFR CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE VISIBILITY IS UNLIMITED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  14  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  32  12  37  15 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  16  40  17 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  14  39  18 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  30  14  37  17 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  17  41  21 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...AJOHNSON



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