820
FXUS63 KDDC 110705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain moves in Saturday afternoon with continues with period
  of rain Sunday and Monday.

- Marginal severe risk with hail up to quarters and gusty winds
  possible Sunday afternoon.

- Another storm system brings more rain chances by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a large closed
5670 dm low centered near Las Vegas with a ridge ahead of the
low in eastern Colorado. A shortwave in central New Mexico with
orographic lift over the mountains is providing rain and snow
with the rain shadow clouds starting to move into western
Kansas. At the surface dewpoints have been increasing into the
40s and 50s as winds are gradually turning southeasterly in the
850 mb levels. Also the northern lights are going on which is a
cool feature to see this far south.

Today for most of southwest Kansas we should see dry and mild
conditions as areas along and east of highway 83 will see
generally a mix of sun and clouds and decent diurnal heating as
highs get into the mid 70s to lower 80s. West of highway 83 as
an upper level shortwave ejects ahead of the surface low and
with moisture increasing in west Texas through eastern Colorado
from southeast winds...we should see a band of rain and embedded
storms approach into areas from Syracuse to Liberal by middle to
late afternoon. Rainfall amounts leading into the evening should
initially be light at around a few hundredths to 0.10 inch.

Saturday night we should see a couple rounds of rain move
through western Kansas as the initial wave will progress to the
northeast and bring scattered rainshowers across the region. As
the upper low moves into Colorado another stout region of PVA
and a 700 mb shortwave should tap into moisture and a line of
rain and storms will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas after midnight. This round could provide periods of
moderate rainfall and we could see as much as 0.25 inch for
areas along the Colorado border (~50% chance) and up to 0.10
inch to Dodge City (~50% chance).

Sunday will have an interesting setup...widespread rain will
move across southwest Kansas as the upper level shortwave moves
from west to east and it should be a wet morning. Short term
models have been trending to a period of subsidence behind the
morning wave which will lead to a break in the rain by late
morning and early afternoon and peaks of sun could be possible.
If any sun can peak through the clouds there will be modest
instability by late afternoon (~1000 J/kg CAPE) as well as
modest shear (hodograph veering in the lowest 3 km and then back
aloft) as the main upper low moves into far western Kansas with
a stout area of vorticity we could see a line of storms break
out roughly from Hays to Liberal and these storms could have
enough to produce large hail and gusty winds. Widespread severe
is not expected and any severe potential Sunday will be
conditional on getting some sunshine to add instability to the
dynamics coming in. Sunday afternoon through Sunday night should
also give us the timeframe of greatest rainfall as areas roughly
along and east of highway 83 are showing near 100% chance of
0.25 inch, ~80% chance of at least 0.5 inch of rain, and 20-30%
chance of 1 inch. Needless to say this will be a beneficial
system to help knock down some of the drought.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The upper level low mentioned in the short term forecast will
continue to trek eastward and eject disturbances across the area
Sunday into Monday morning.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected
throughout the day Sunday with decreasing cloudiness from west to
east by Monday morning. Precipitation chances look to be the highest
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Probabilities of over a
quarter of an inch of rain will be highest Sunday
afternoon/evening with over a 70 percent chance east of Highway
83. An over 50 percent chance of probability of over a half of
an inch is found east of Highway 283. Instability with these
storms look to be fairly low during this event but a few strong
storms producing small hail or gusty winds can not be ruled out.


Dry conditions are then expected Monday night into Tuesday as a weak
upper level ridge sits above the Plains.  Mostly clear skies are
expected during this timeframe with winds from a southerly
direction. The remainder of the forecast looks more unsettled as
upper level troughing digs into the Rockies with weak shortwaves
ejecting into western Kansas. This will bring an increase in chances
of precipitation but doesn`t look to bring widespread leaving
some places dry. Highs during the long term forecast look to
reach into the 70s with the exception of Tuesday when 80s are
expected. Lows will generally range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds during the time period should be generally 12 kts or less.
A storm system will approach from the west and mid level clouds
will overspread western Kansas through the day. By late
afternoon rain showers and a few storms will enter western
Kansas. VCTS and -SHRA will be possible for GCK and LBL from
00-06Z. Cloud heights should stay in VFR flight category during
most of the time period however cloud ceilings could be around
MVFR range between 05-06Z for GCK and LBL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro