Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022321
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. GIVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LEE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST,
WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS AND DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AND
DIE OFF LATER IN THE EVENING. SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
RATHER WEAK, ANY HAIL WOULD BE GOLFBALL SIZE OR SMALLER. GIVEN THE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY STAY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND NOT AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL DISCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 60S. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE PROGRESSED INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR, WHICH COULD BE SEVERE
WITH GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR SMALLER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL SIZE. TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS SW KANSAS, ANY OUTFLOW THAT MIGHT SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MORE
FAVORED MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
NORTHERN KS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EASTERLY
NEXT WEEK WHETHER THE ELKHART LOW LIFTS NORTH, OR A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS PROVIDING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS. LASTLY, A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED COULD FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THE
WEEKEND.

WITH SUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER, HUMIDITY HIGHER AND LOWS STEADY IN THE 60S, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, CONVECTION LOOKS RELEGATED TO POINTS NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM DRIVES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN NC
KANSAS (RUSH-HAYS AREA AND NORTHWARD). THE GFS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS
THAT SCENARIO. THE  MODEL SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN
THE NEB-KS STATE LINE CORRIDOR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS WARM SECTOR MAX INSTABILITY CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND POP
FORECAST. THE GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
UPPER 80S FOR DODGE CITY, AND THE EC AS WELL REMAINS THE COOLER
MODEL VS. A VERY WARM GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE 90S. ADDITIONALLY BY
THE WEEKEND, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM "BLANCA" IS
MODELS TO FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, ROUGHLY BY THE 400 MB RH FIELDS,
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS COULD INCREASE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AND RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE DODGE CITY AND HAYS WHERE MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND 10-12Z WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL AT LEAST CARRY
A 500FT AGL SCATTERED CLOUD DECK. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AT HAYS AND DODGE CITY WILL RETURN AFTER 14Z. WINDS AT
GARDEN CITY WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10KTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THAT LOCATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  67  87 /  10   0  10  20
GCK  64  91  65  88 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  60  94  63  89 /  20   0  10  10
LBL  62  96  66  90 /  10   0  10  30
HYS  66  89  67  85 /  10  30  40  30
P28  67  90  68  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD


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