Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 092333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Stratus deck continues to erode from west to east across southwest
and central Kansas this afternoon. Based on extrapolation, the
back edge should be along Highway 281 by sunset. Southerly boundary
layer flow is pushing slightly more moist air into the area from
the southern Plains. Given some weak isentropic upglide exhibited
by the RAP13 280K surface, this is expected to result in additional
stratus redeveloping overnight across southwest Kansas. Some patchy
fog could also form overnight in this weak moist advection regime.
Low temperatures should range from the mid teens over central Kansas
to the mid 20s in the southwest corner around Elkhart but this could
be problematic depending on cloud cover.

Any stratus and patchy fog around Saturday morning should gradually
erode as daytime the low levels gradually mix out. Given the continued
low level warm pattern we are in, high temperatures on Saturday should
be at least 15-20 degrees warmer than this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The strong upper level zonal flow pattern over the central and
southern CONUS will continue through much of the period. A weak
disturbance in the flow will push a cold front south across western
Kansas on Sunday. Other than a slight cooldown over parts of the
region, this front is not expected to have much impact.

Much colder weather will be returning to the central High Plains
through the remainder of the extended period. A strong upper low
system will be moving south over Canada early next week. A strong
wave rotating around the southern part of the low will send a
surge of arctic air south into the central High Plains late
Tuesday and Wednesday. This system could also produce some light
snow. Depending on how the upper pattern evolves, we could see a
brief warmup early next weekend. By later next weekend, the
medium range models indicate a deep trough developing across
western North America with southwesterly flow aloft extending from
the Desert Southwest across the central Plains. This pattern will
allow much colder air to drop south into western Kansas along with
an increasing potential for freezing precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

There is pretty good agreement among the short term high
resolution models this evening regarding a fairly widespread
IFR/LIFR scenario developing across portions of southwest Kansas,
including some patchy or areas of freezing fog. Low ceilings, into
the IFR category, will likely develop around or shortly after 09z
Saturday and affect primarily GCK terminal. DDC terminal will
probably be in the eastern edge of IFR, so the TAF will depict IFR
there as well for a few hours Saturday morning. Should freezing
fog materialize in the morning, it should be confined mainly to
GCK terminal. HYS terminal is currently not forecast to go into
IFR with this morning event.


DDC  19  46  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  19  46  29  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  61  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  55  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  16  41  27  38 /   0   0   0  10
P28  20  45  34  49 /   0   0   0  10




LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.