Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 061817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  59  76  60  84 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  62  75  59  83 /  60  10  20  20
HYS  59  77  56  81 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  81 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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