Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170641
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Lingering areas of light rain across south central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas will come to an end by mid morning as
the triggering upper level shortwave lifts further east into the
southern Great Lakes Region. A secondary upper level shortwave
moving across the Colorado Rockies, will help dislodge the
stationary frontal boundary across southwest Kansas and push it
into Northern Oklahoma later this afternoon, allowing for drier
air to spread across the Western High Plains bringing an end to
precip chances through the remainder of the period. Colder air
filtering southward into western Kansas today will send H85
temperatures down to around 0C by this afternoon. Under mostly
cloudy skies through the first part of the day, look for highs
only up into the 40s(F) across west central and much of southwest
Kansas. The lower 50s(F) are likely ahead of the boundary in
south central Kansas. Surface high pressure will sink southward
across western Kansas into the South Plains Sunday night
reinforcing the colder air mass across the high plains. Should see
lows down into the teens(F) in west central Kansas to the 20s(F)
further east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1239 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

A rather dry pattern will set up across the high plains of western
Kansas early in the period despite an upper level shortwave trough
projected to push out of the Desert Southwest into the South Plains.
A weak flow aloft and a prevailing drier air mass across the Western
High Plains will hold any chances for precip at bay, especially
toward the middle part of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out
of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface high
pressure will kick eastward across the Central Plains Monday while
lee side troughing develops across eastern Colorado, producing a
southwesterly flow across western Kansas. This will draw warmer air
into the region, pushing H85 temperatures up near 10C. Highs up into
the 50s(F) are likely Monday afternoon with a few lower 60s(F)
possible across portions of southwest Kansas. A weak cold front
pushing through western Kansas early Tuesday will result in slightly
cooler temperatures while highs bounce back a bit Wednesday as lee
side troughing develops, quickly returning southerlies to western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight. Low level
stratus is expected to develop behind a cold front as it begins to
push southeast across the remainder of southwest and central Kansas
generally after daybreak. MVFR cigs will be possible in the
vicinity of all TAF sites after 12Z with the potential for brief
IFR cigs at KGCK, KLBL, and KDDC. Widespread VFR conditions will
then return Sunday afternoon. Light southerly winds will persist
overnight ahead of a stalled frontal boundary stretching from
extreme southwest Kansas northeast into north central Kansas.
Winds will then turn northerly 10 to 20kt generally after 12Z
behind the cold front as it begins to edge southeastward into
northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  45  23  59 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  25  42  22  58 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  24  43  26  62 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  26  45  23  62 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  28  43  24  56 /  10   0   0   0
P28  38  50  27  60 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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