Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181835
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A beautiful day is occurring in Southwest Kansas, offering a
great chance to get outside this afternoon. Today will be the
hottest day of the week, with temperatures 10+ degrees above
normal and reaching in the lower to mid-80s. Skies will be clear,
except for a few high clouds flowing into Western Kansas due to
orographic lifting from the Rockies. A weak trough axis is
currently located from Johnson City to Garden City to Hays, making
winds in Southwest Kansas light today (under 10 mph), and in some
areas, calm for a few hours this afternoon. Tonight, winds will
remain light, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid-40s.

Tomorrow afternoon, an upper level shortwave moves through Western
Kansas, which will aid in deepening the lee trough in Eastern
Colorado. This will increase the pressure gradient and create
gusty conditions for our region. With limited boundary level
moisture, we will remain dry tomorrow. Temperatures will reach 80
degrees in most locations.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Thursday brings an increase in the surface pressure gradient,
enough to change surface winds to southeast around 10-15 knots
with gust potential in the well mixed BL during afternoon. By
late in the day and Thursday night, a significant moisture surge
will increase surface dewpoints into the upper 50s. Both the NAM
and ECMWF show a 500 mb vorticity field shortwave lifting out of
New Mexico into central Kansas by noon Friday. This should account
for scattered showers and general non severe thunderstorms given
an overall lack of strong instability. Probabilities from model
consensus for our area is quite low. More of a chance for wetting
rains associated with thunderstorms is found across the southeast
sections (Stafford- Comanche-Pratt-Medicine Lodge) as a Pacific
cold front invades the area Saturday. Mild lows are forecast
Saturday morning, with cooler high temperatures for the weekend
and beyond, still near normal for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR and great flying conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Wind will stay below 10 knots until tomorrow afternoon, with
periods of near calm wind this afternoon as a weak trough axis
moves through Southwest Kansas. Skies will remain mostly clear due
to a few high clouds flowing in from Colorado.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  44  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  82  42  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  83  44  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  84  44  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  81  42  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  81  49  78  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Reynolds


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