Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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974 FXUS63 KDDC 250540 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1240 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Saturday - There is a 30-40% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas late Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest, giving way to weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is drifting east through the high plains of northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska into northwest Kansas. Tranquil conditions are forecast through much of the period as the SREF shows weak ridging aloft shifting east through the Western High Plains tonight, and farther out into the Central Plains Saturday. A much drier air mass reinforced by surface high pressure moving through the Western High Plains will keep precip chances (<10%) at bay through early afternoon Saturday. Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies. The HREF points to a 40-60% probability of temperatures dropping below 50F in west central Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas to a 70-90% probability of lows below 55F elsewhere. Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Saturday as a strengthening lee side trough in eastern Colorado brings about a more southerly flow to western Kansas, drawing much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures pushing above 20C in central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) in extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF painting a 40-60% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in central Kansas to a 70-80% probability of an exceedance of 90F in extreme southwest Kansas, look for afternoon highs well up into the 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 90s(F) across much of southwest Kansas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Thunderstorm chances (30-40%) remain in the forecast early in the period as medium range ensembles indicate an open upper level trough pushing east into the Colorado Rockies late Saturday, setting up an intensifying southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. In response, a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado is projected to push eastward into northwest Kansas Saturday evening while ample moisture continues to pool ahead of an advancing dryline, pushing surface dewpoints up into the upper 50s(F) and the 60s(F). Additionally, more favorable dynamics aloft will be present as the northwest exit region of a +100kt jet spreads eastward through southwest Kansas into south central Kansas early Saturday evening. With steepening mid-level lapse rates and significant instability ahead of the dryline, thunderstorm development is expected late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as H5 vort maxima eject northeast out of the approaching trough axis, interacting with increased forcing in a zone of low level convergence associated with the dryline. The strong flow aloft will enhance deep layer shear, increasing the potential for severe storms, including isolated tornadoes. The best chance for storms continues to focus across central and south central Kansas where the NBM shows a 20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter inch by early Sunday morning. A less active period can then be expected into early next week as weak ridging aloft slowly builds in across the Intermountain West, and eventually moves out into the Western High Plains. Temperatures will not be quite as warm Sunday as cooler air spreads into western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage Saturday night, dropping H85 temperatures a little below 20C in central Kansas to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM shows a 70-80% probability of highs exceeding 80F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to an 80-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 85F in south central Kansas and a portion of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border. Similar temperatures are expected through early next week as weak ridging aloft approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current light and variable winds will begin to increase shortly after sunrise Saturday morning, reaching the 18-23 kt range with gusts of 28-33 kts by mid-morning. These winds will continue through 00Z when a gradual weakening trend will occur owing to the loss of boundary layer mixing. Towards the end of the period, winds will begin to veer to southwest to westerly as a cold front approaches southwest KS. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Springer