Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010617
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 12-15 MPH TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL GO THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 1 PM, THEN GARDEN CITY BY 3 TO 4 PM, THEN
DODGE CITY BY 6 TO 7 PM. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST, WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS FROM 97 TO AROUND 100 TODAY WITH THE WARMEST
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO THICKEN THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. IF CLOUDS GET TOO THICK, IT
MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING.

CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP AFTER MAX
HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF GARDEN AND DODGE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
HOWEVER WITH HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS, AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND
1700 J/KG, SOME WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 50 TO 70 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, AND THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. WILL KEEP A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF DODGE CITY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT. BY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GETS
CLOSER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON; AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
SIMPLY GROW UPSCALE OR WHETHER RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BECOME
SEVERE. IF CONVECTION IS DISCRETE, THEN VERY LARGE HAIL (>2.75")
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF THE WIND
AND HIGH CAPE VALUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY, ALL THE COOL OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY
HAMPER STORM SEVERITY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
POSSIBLE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ON SATURDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT NOT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAY EVENINGS CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 8-12KT. WIND SHIFT AT KHYS AROUND 18Z, THEN
21Z AT KGCK, AND 23-00Z AT KDDC. MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ALSO. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF KGCK AND KDDC AFTER
21Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  70  90  67 /  20  20  40  40
GCK  98  70  89  66 /  10  10  40  40
EHA  99  70  91  66 /  20  20  40  40
LBL 100  71  91  67 /  20  20  40  30
HYS  97  68  88  65 /  10  10  40  40
P28 101  72  92  67 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE



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