Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...Updated Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Breezy SW winds and scattered cumulus across SW KS as of midday.
Expect winds to decrease with time this afternoon as pressure
gradient weakens. Highs from near 85 north to the lower 90s south.

Mostly clear tonight with S/SE winds of 5-15 mph. Boundary layer
moisture will remain elevated, with dewpoints holding near 60,
which will in turn keep low temperatures Tuesday morning above
normal. Temperatures at sunrise will range from the mid 50s along
the Colorado border, to the lower 60s at Dodge City, to near 70 at

Tuesday...Sunny, hot and windy. Vigorous shortwave will spread
into Wyoming by afternoon, inducing strong leeside cyclogenesis in
eastern Colorado. Resulting strong pressure gradient will support
strong SW winds during the afternoon. Both NAM/GFS MOS guidance
forecasts winds 20-25 mph sustained, with gusts near 40 mph
likely. Pronounced dryline along the CO/KS border at sunrise will
progress to near a Hays-Coldwater line by 7 pm. Tried to follow
the 12z NAM`s depiction of dewpoint trends, falling well down into
the 30s by late afternoon. Relative humidity will fall to the
12-17% range, and combined with the SW wind, will create critical
fire conditions especially along/west of US 283. Hottest
temperatures (97-101) can be expected immediately west of the
dryline during peak heating (roughly Ness City-Dodge City-
Ashland). No convection expected along the dryline boundary, and
kept all zones dry with pops <15%.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Windy, warm, and dry conditions can be expected on Tuesday,
especially behind a developing dry line that will be moving across
western Kansas during the day. GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all have this
dry line near Dodge City and Hays late day with dew points falling
quickly from the 50s to the 30s west of this boundary. Based on
the forecast 2M temperatures behind this boundary and low dew
points the relative humidity values should easily fall back into
the teens across most of western Kansas. Relative values as low as
12 to 16 percent will be possible west of highway 83. Based on
these expected conditions have issued a Fire Watch for Tuesday
afternoon along and west of a Scott City to Garden City to Liberal
line. Wind speeds may not be as strong at 15 to 20 mph near the
Colorado border late day given the location for the surface trough
in far eastern Colorado but still a watch appears warranted in
these locations also.

Tuesday night into Wednesday an upper level trough will move out
of the Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains. As this
upper level system lifts northeast into the Northern Plains on
early Wednesday a surface cold front will cross western Kansas.
This will bring an end to the early work week warm up but
precipitation with this frontal passage does not look very
favorable. At this time it also does not look like much in the way
of cooler air will be returning behind this front mid week but
highs are expected to fall back from the 90s on Tuesday into the
85 to 90 degree range on Wednesday.

What little cool down that does occur will be brief as warmer
temperatures return late week. Gusty south/southeast winds can
also be expected to develop late week as surface pressure fall
along the lee of the Rockies in response to an
approaching/deepening upper level trough over the western United
States. These gusty south/southeast winds will begin to draw more
humid air back into southwest Kansas by early Friday and by Friday
afternoon there will be a chance for convection along a surface
trough over eastern Colorado as an upper level wave ejects from
the base of the western United States deepening upper low and
approaches the Western Highs Plains. A few of these storms may
move into western Kansas Friday night but the better chances for
convection will be over the weekend as another, stronger, upper
level system crosses the Western High Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Expecting VFR/SKC to prevail through this TAF forecast period.
Patchy stratus near LBL will dissipate early this afternoon, with
cumulus near GCK/DDC. Good flying weather overnight, with light
S/SE winds less than 10 kts. A strong dryline along the CO/KS
border at 12z Tue will progress eastward to near a Hays-Coldwater
line by 00z Wed. Convection is not expected along this boundary.
Strong SW winds will impact aviation behind the dryline Tuesday
afternoon. Expect SW winds to average 20-30 kts, with gusts near
35 kts, at all airports starting around 17z Tuesday.


Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Upgraded inherited fire weather watch to a red flag warning for
Tuesday afternoon. High confidence in critical or near-critcal
fire condtions being achieved along and west of US 83. With the
latest 12z NAM punching a sharp dryline east of Dodge City (with
dewpoints falling well down into the 30s) expanded the red flag
warning to include areas along and west of US 283 as well.
Finally, pressure gradient progged Tuesday afternoon is
impressive, and increased wind gusts to near 40 mph in the red
flag warning areas. With widespread dormant fuels, outdoor burning
is strongly discouraged Tuesday afternoon.


DDC  88  63  98  59 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  87  59  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  88  56  91  54 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  90  61  94  55 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  84  64  96  61 /  10  10   0   0
P28  90  68  97  68 /  30  10  10   0


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Tuesday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.



LONG TERM...Burgert
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