Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 231101
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Cold front clearing the SE zones early this morning, accompanied
by a few light showers and a NWly wind shift. Surface high
(1027 mb per 00z NAM) builds into the Colorado Rockies through
sunrise, ensuring a NW wind will continue overnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy, windy and cool. Quite uncharacteristic of
late May in SW Kansas, with thunderstorm chances at zero and
temperatures running about 15 degrees below normal. Upper low in
northern Minnesota currently will drop due south into Iowa today,
enhancing the NW flow, at the surface and aloft, over SW KS.
Followed the strongest wind guidance, with NW wind gusts of
30-35 mph expected. All models also show broken/overcast mid layer
cloud decks near 7k ft through the afternoon. A few passing light
rain showers (sprinkles) are also likely. Between the clouds and
NWly cool advection, temperatures will struggle today into the
mid 60s. NW winds and limited sunshine will add a decided chill to
the air.

Tonight...Diminishing cloud cover and NW winds expected after
sunset, allowing for radiational cooling to become efficient
through Wednesday morning. Another chilly morning Wednesday, with
lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s (again about 15 degrees below
normal). Across the far NW and NE zones Wednesday morning,
included patchy frost in the grids where upper 30s are forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Wednesday...A spectacular spring day, with full sun, light winds
and near room temperatures in the afternoon. Meridional flow over
North America, with Kansas sandwiched between a strong closed low
near St. Louis and a ridge axis over the southern Rockies.

Thursday...The warmest day of this forecast. Ridge axis phases
into eastern Kansas in the afternoon, with thermal ridge warming
temperatures nicely. With a lack of downslope, along with wet
soils and vegetation, temperatures will be held in check, in the
low to mid 80s. Models hint at a thunderstorm complex impacting
at least NW KS Thursday evening, and pops will favor the northern
zones to cover this possibility.

Friday...A few degrees cooler (near normal) under more of a zonal
flow aloft. Most of Friday will be dry, but once again convective
potential will be present by evening. A weak shortwave in the flow
aloft is expected to trigger thunderstorms late in the day. Models
agree on this scenario, but disagree on placement. 00z ECMWF
argues for SW KS, while 00z GFS depicts a strong MCS affecting
northern Kansas/southern Nebraska Friday night. Scattered pops
will suffice in the grids for now.

Saturday...A few degrees cooler behind a weak cold front (and
possible outflow boundary from Friday night`s MCS).  Model
consensus suggests upslope flow on the higher terrain will incite
convection Saturday afternoon, and then subsequently move SE into
SW KS Saturday evening. As such, pops will favor the western
zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. There will be some mid level clouds
through the period, but no further flight reduction. Winds will increase
NW 20-30 kt today and subside NW/N 10-20 kt by evening. There may be
a stray shra, however, don`t have enough confidence and it should be
low impact to insert in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  41  71  50 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  65  40  74  49 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  63  43  78  51 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  66  41  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  64  39  68  49 /  20  10   0   0
P28  67  45  71  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden



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