Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211945
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
145 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Models today showing minor differences in the strength of the
warm layer aloft and depth of the cold air near the surface late
today and overnight. All models however do agree that
precipitation will be on the increase late this afternoon and
early tonight with the latest model soundings indicating mainly
snow for areas west of highway 183 through early tonight. The snow
in this area is forecast to begin to mix with, and eventually
change over to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain during the
overnight period. East of highway 183 there is a high likelihood
for an early changeover and an extended period of light freezing
precipitation tonight. Using this as a guide we could easily see
one to two tenths of ice accumulation somewhere in south central
Kansas before this event ends early Thursday morning. Further
west, given that mainly snow is currently expected early tonight,
ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch looks more
plausible. Along with these ice accumulations west of highway 183
there will also be some accumulating snow. Snow accumulations of
around one inch will be possible depending on when the snow
changes over to freezing drizzle/freezing rain.

The snow and ice mix that is expected overnight will create
travel issues through early Thursday morning and as a result a
winter weather advisory has been issued for located where the
higher snowfall and/or ice accumulations are expected. Outside
this winter weather advisory there still is a chance for some
minor travel issues, especially on secondary roads and elevated
surfaces so extra caution should still be applied during the
morning commute.

Early Thursday morning the i285 to i295 isentropic surfaces
indicate that the better moisture and lift will begin to shift
northeast out of western Kansas and into central/north central
Kansas as an upper level disturbance starts to cross the West
Central High Plains. This will bring an end to any lingering light
precipitation early in the day with some clearing skies becoming
possible by late day. A surface boundary will also begin to lift
north out of the Texas Panhandle and into southwest Kansas during
the day and south of this boundary the temperatures will rebound
back into the 40s. North of this front more clouds cover along
with highs only in the 30s can be expected Thursday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Warmer temperatures will start off the weekend as an upper level
trough crosses the Rockies and move out into Central Plains over
the weekend. In addition to these warmer temperatures there will
also be a chance for another round of precipitation Friday night
or early Saturday morning, mainly east of Dodge City. Although the
exact track of this upper low is still somewhat unclear it
currently appears that the precipitation chances will be liquid or
freezing precipitation Friday night or early Saturday and then
possibly falling in the form of snow late this weekend as some
colder air returns. At this time the majority of the ensembles
this morning seems to focus the chances for snow chances behind
the cold front, should it occur, across west central and north
central Kansas.

The next shot of colder air late this weekend currently does not
look to be as cold as earlier this week nor last long. Some warmer
temperatures are expected to return early next week as another
upper level low/trough drops south along the west coast and the
winds across the Rockies back improving the downslope flow. The
warm and dry conditions early next week will likely result in
increase fire risk levels.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR ceilings will lower this afternoon across western Kansas with
light snow becoming possible in the Liberal area by 21z. Some
light snow will be possible around the Dodge City and Garden City
areas between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Finally the Hays
area could see some light snow after 00z Thursday. Periods of
light snow will continue through 03z and then begin to mix with or
even change over to freezing drizzle or freezing rain after 03z
at Dodge City, Liberal and possible even the Hays area. Some
patchy freezing drizzle will even be possible near Garden City
towards 06z. This light precipitation will then continue through
the predawn hour and then taper off early Thursday morning. Ice
accumulations currently expected to be less than 0.05 of an inch
at Dodge City overnight. Only minor (0.01inch) accumulations
expected at the remainder of the TAFS site. Snowfall is tonight
to be one inch or less. As the snow begins to develop between 21z
Wednesday and 03 Thursday he ceilings are expected to fall back
into the low MVFR and IFR category. Winds this afternoon and
overnight will be northeast at 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17  35  23  46 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  17  37  20  47 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  17  47  24  56 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  17  41  22  52 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  18  31  22  42 /  50  20  10   0
P28  23  34  25  46 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for KSZ045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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