491
FXUS62 KMLB 201735
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers present on KMLB radar
early this afternoon have led to VCSH inclusion for areas from MCO
northward into mid-afternoon. Otherwise, areas are expected to
remain mostly dry today. To the south, higher confidence in
showers and storms this afternoon, with VCTS included for the
Treasure Coast, as the sea breeze moves inland. A TEMPO group has
been included for SUA, which has the highest chance for seeing any
reductions due to convection. Any convection is expected to
diminish into late evening.

Winds have already veered northeasterly behind the sea breeze for
coastal terminals from around TIX southward. The sea breeze is
forecast to move inland into this afternoon, with gusts up to
25kts possible. Winds will diminish after sunset and back northerly
once again.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across
central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended
across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture
(PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered
shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into
the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This
activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds
behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from
the Cape southward and moving inland.

Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern
portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this
afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where
greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms
will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to
locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will
be the main threats.

N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to
late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will
remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from
the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the
interior, south of Orlando.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with
the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this
evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around
15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the
evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have
added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and
nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these
headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including
the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer
to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the
waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger
storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  70  85 /  10  30   0  10
MCO  70  87  70  90 /  10  40   0  10
MLB  72  85  72  86 /  20  30  10  10
VRB  70  87  71  88 /  20  30  10  20
LEE  68  88  71  91 /  10  40   0  10
SFB  68  87  70  90 /  10  40   0  10
ORL  71  88  71  90 /  10  40   0  10
FPR  69  87  70  87 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy