851
FXUS62 KMLB 292350
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
750 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- High coverage of afternoon and evening showers and lightning
  storms each day this week. Slow-moving storms will be capable
  of wind gusts to around 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes,
  small hail, and locally heavy rainfall, leading to minor
  flooding.

- Humid conditions will continue to lead to apparent temperatures
  in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  at least mid week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Current-Tonight...Warm and humid conditions again this afternoon
with maxes topping out in the U80s to L90s with peak heat indices in
the M-U90s and perhaps a few L100s. Continue to use caution if
spending time outdoors to avoid heat-related illness. The Atlc ridge
axis continues near the central FL peninsula, while aloft, general
troughiness persists over the southeast U.S. and FL peninsula. PWATs
range from 1.90-2.20 inches with 500 mb temps around -8C.

Expecting fairly high coverage (50-70pct) of convection this
afternoon/evening with early initiation along both east/west coast
sea breezes, with coverage/intensity increasing further inland by
late today due to sea breeze collisions and various mesoscale
boundary interactions. Storm steering flow remains light and
generally toward the eastern peninsula, but any stronger boundary
collisions late may make cell movement erratic at times. A few
strong storms will be possible with primary storm impacts of
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds locally to
50 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours leading to
minor/nuisance flooding potential. The WPC has, again, outlooked
much of ECFL in a Marginal threat for heavy rainfall as quick
accumulations of 1-3 inches locally will be possible. Activity
will linger during the evening gradually dissipating late. Clouds
thin overnight with drier, but muggy conditions.

Winds will become light SW/W (perhaps variable) later tonight and
overnight mins generally L-M70s, perhaps U70s for barrier islands.

Mon-Wed...The weak surface ridge axis will continue across central
and south-central FL, though gradually getting nudged seaward late
in the period. Aloft, mid/upper-level troughiness across the
southeast U.S. and FL peninsula is reinforced across the region.
Persistent pattern day to day, with high moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0")
and generally light S/SW flow. Daily coverage of showers and
lightning storms remain 50-70% and should favor the eastern
peninsula. Afternoon sea/lake breezes and various other mesoscale
boundary collisions over the interior will maintain convection
into the evening hours, before drier conditions develop overnight
with thinning cloud-cover. Slow-moving storms will be capable of
strong wind gusts locally to around 50 mph, small hail, frequent
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. Minor flooding
concerns may increase in any areas that receive multiple rounds
(days) of heavy rainfall. However, recent dry and remaining
drought conditions should appreciate the rainfall. Seasonable
temperatures continue, with highs in the U80s to L90s. Humidity
will lead to apparent temperatures closer to the U90s and L100s.

Thu-Sun...Previous Modified...Uncertainty continues in the long term
for the holiday weekend, as a weak surface front drifts into the
southeast U.S. and stalls into late week, ushering the Atlantic
ridge axis farther out to sea. The evolution of this stalled
boundary and any scenarios associated with it may produce remains
very low confidence and bears watching. The National Hurricane
Center has outlooked the southeastern Atlc and Gulf coasts for a
low/20pct chance for additional (tropical/sub-tropical) formation
over the next 7 days. At any rate, high coverage of showers and
lightning storms will continue each afternoon/evening and into
next weekend, as deep moisture lingers. Continue to cap PoPs at
60-80% each day due to the timeframe and uncertainty. With
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible each day, minor
flooding concerns could increase. High cloud coverage would help
to keep temperatures seasonable, though humid conditions will
continue to support heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

High coverage of afternoon/evening showers and lightning storms
will continue through the upcoming week. Some of this activity
will be capable of moving across the intracoastal and near shore
Atlc waters, particularly into the late afternoon and evening
hours. However, weak steering flow will mean propagation will be
largely boundary driven. A few storms could be strong, capable of
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy
downpours. S/SW winds prevailing into next week, remaining less
than 15 kts. However, winds become SE along the coast each
afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes slowly inland.
Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Light debris cloud rainfall will gradually diminish across the
area this evening, with lingering storms along the Treasure Coast
also weakening and fading through late evening. Tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions will continue with convection from KVRB-KSUA through
01-02Z, but farther north where light rain is occurring vis and
cigs should largely remain VFR. Hi-res guidance trying to show
some redevelopment of scattered showers and isolated storms later
tonight moving into areas northwest of I-4, but not a whole lot of
confidence in that scenario at the moment.

High shower and storm chances continue Monday, and have VCTS for
all sites starting around 17Z-18Z. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions and
gusty/variable winds will once again accompany any heavier showers
and storms in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are forecast, with light S/SW winds, becoming E/SE at the coast
from KTIX southward and increasing to around 10 knots with the
developing east coast sea breeze in the late morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  86  72  89 /  50  70  30  60
MCO  73  87  73  90 /  60  70  30  60
MLB  72  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  60
VRB  69  89  69  90 /  60  50  40  60
LEE  73  84  73  87 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  73  87  72  90 /  60  70  30  60
ORL  74  87  74  90 /  60  70  30  60
FPR  69  88  70  89 /  60  50  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich