Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KMLB 041330
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE TODAY RELATIVE
TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT SINCE EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY
WEAK/BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE STATE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGHINESS PRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE COOLED OFF SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO
THE BUILDING TROUGH OVERHEAD WITH 500 MB TEMPS AT -7.1C AT XMR
AND -6.5C AT TAMPA AS OF 12Z. EXPECT THESE TEMPS TO COOL A BIT
MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE STORMS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A
LITTLE MORE VIGOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT...AROUND 1.9 INCHES...AND MODELLING SUGGESTS THIS VALUE
CLIMBING ABOVE 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ON OUR SIDE OF THE COAST BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING...SO PLAN ON FOCUSING OUR HIGHEST POPS A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 22Z/6PM. GREATEST THREATS REMAIN WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 45 MPH AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST...BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AT
10 - 15 MPH.

WITH REGARDS TO STORM COVERAGE...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
REMAINS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. SUSPECT THIS WILL DELAY HEATING SOME
AND KEEP THINGS A BIT MORE STABLE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO SANFORD NORTHWARD.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A BIT OVER THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE OF 50/60 POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR OUTSIDE OF TEMPO VISBY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN THIS
AFTERNOONS TSRA/SHRA. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. EXPECT
COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS..FOCUSING ON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE
ADDING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAINLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE COAST...SO OFFSHORE
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TODAY...WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...UP TO 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  74 /  40  30  40  20
MCO  92  74  91  74 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  92  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  20
VRB  92  73  89  73 /  50  30  50  20
LEE  92  75  92  74 /  60  30  50  20
SFB  93  75  92  74 /  60  30  50  20
ORL  93  76  92  75 /  60  30  50  20
FPR  92  72  89  73 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECASTS...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....WEITLICH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.