Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201838
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
LOW CLOUD COVER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO SCATTERED CVG. RADAR LOOP SHOWS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN
SEBASTIAN AND JUPITER INLETS.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER THE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLING COASTS LIFTS NORTHEAST ENOUGH FOR THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RIGHT NOW MODELS...GFS/RUC40/LOCAL
WRF/ARW...ARE MOVING THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WOULD REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDFLOW PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WOULD
CONTINUE TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE 925-850MB/3000-5000 FOOT MEAN RELATIVE FORECASTS FOR
THE THREE MODELS AND USING PERSISTENT FROM LATEST SURFACE ANALYZES
AND SATELLITE LOOP...AM LEANING TOWARD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE AS WAS THE CASE
FOR AROUND SUNRISE TODAY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING NOT TOO FAR FROM
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S DOWN THE INTERIOR TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY AND MID 60S BREVARD TO
MARTIN COUNTY.

MONDAY...SKIES START OUT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THEN A SLOW
MARCH TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST FAR ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE. MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND THE UPPER 70S AND
AROUND 80 FOR THE INTERIOR LOOK REASONABLE. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

TUE...MUCH LIGHTER PRESSURE PATTERN ASCD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITING THE STATE WL LEAD TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS...A WARMING
TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS FORECAST TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE
MID 80S AREA WIDE WITH AN AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZE.

WED-SAT...(PREV DISC) THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN
WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE
ARE FORECAST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WILL KEEP CURRENT GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE
LINE BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH
QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR 21/10Z-21/14Z WHEN STRATUS...AROUND
FL012...FORMS AND MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH. VFR AFTER 21/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS-MONDAY...BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS WHICH JUSTIFIES THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE SEAS
ARE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THEY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET PER THE TWO
SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH TO 7 FEET AT BUOY 009/20NM
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND 6 FEET AT BUOY 010 LOCATED 120NM EAST OF
NEW SMYRNA BEACH. SEAS RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST DUE TO OFFSHORE
WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/320-340 DEGREES. ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO A
MORE NORTH NORTHWEST AND NORTH DIRECTION AND STARTS PUSHING AGAINST
THE NORTHERLY FLOW OF THE SHELF AND GULF STREAM WATERS THE SEAS
SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD TO THE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF AROUND 5 TO 7 JUST
OFF THE BEACH...THEN 7 TO 9 FEET FURTHER ON OUT AND TO 10 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE AND IN THE GULF STREAM.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOWS DECREASING SEA STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING
THE IMMEDIATE REGION TUE. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
WED SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER SEA HGHTS DUE TO FETCH LIMITED
WLY FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW ADVERTISED TO RE DEVELOP AROUND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  73  57  81 /  10   0  10  10
MCO  61  78  59  85 /  10   0   0  10
MLB  66  77  60  83 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  64  78  59  82 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  58  80  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
SFB  62  79  58  84 /  10   0   0  10
ORL  61  78  60  84 /  10   0   0  10
FPR  64  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST







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