Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010731
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...COOLER AND WINDY TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL FLORIDA SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN AND PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM N TO S DURING THE MORNING WITH A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER SWD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TEMP GUIDANCE HAS SUCCESSIVELY COOLED WITH RECENT GUID
AND IT WILL BE A WINDY AND COOL DAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
60S NORTH OF ORLANDO AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE BULK OF
THE AREA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 PLUS
MPH REQUIRED ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL THIS EVENING WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
WINDS AT NIGHTFALL. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
CLEAR SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW RECORD READINGS BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 40S COMMON. WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPOSED AREAS PRE DAWN
SUNDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT
AND A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE COAST...BEACHES AND LARGER LAKES.

SUN-MON...
HI AMP SHORT WAVE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...ALLOWING A STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE TO PUSH INTO THE ERN
CONUS. WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL VEER FROM N TO N/NE THRU THE
DAY SUN...THEN TO THE TO THE E/NE BY LATE MON NIGHT. THE DVLPG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODIFY THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO MORE SEASONABLE LVLS.

TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER SUN AFTN DUE AS WINDS SWING THROUGH
DUE N AND MAINTAIN A CAA PATTERN. READINGS WILL HOLD IN THE M/U60S
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BUT MAY BREAK THE 70F MARK ARND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WARMER MIN TEMPS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT
AS WINDS CRANK AROUND TO NE...KEEPING READINGS IN THE L/M50S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE M/U40S. MODIFICATION WILL CONT THRU MON AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...ALLOWING WINDS THRU THE H100-H85
LYR TO VEER TO E/NE. MON AFTN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS IN THE
M/U50S INTERIOR AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.

TUE-FRI...
AIRMASS SHOULD FULLY MODIFY BY MIDWEEK AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC...ALLOWING SFC/LOW LVL WINDS TO VEER TO DUE
E. WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE L/M80S WED/THU AFTN...MIN TEMPS IN THE
L/M60S. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE BLO H85 TO
FOR LOW-TOPPED CSTL SHRAS TO DVLP. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IN A DEEP ERLY
FLOW REGIME DURING THE DRY SEASON IS USUALLY ISOLD...WHILE THE SHRAS
THEMSELVES RARELY HAVE ANY SIG IMPACT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
AS H85-H70 CAPPING FROM THE RETREATING RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW.

NEXT BEST MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AS
MID RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NEW COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL FL
AT THAT TIME. WILL CAP PRECIP AT 20PCT...HOWEVER...AS NEITHER GFS
NOR THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN
THAT...NOR ARE THEY ADVERTISING A SIG POST FRONTAL COOL DOWN THAT
WOULD INDICATE A STRONG FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH SFC WND G30KT FM 14Z-22Z...ESP N OF VRB-LAL LINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE OVER THE OPEN WATERS TODAY. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER AREA LAKES ALONG WITH ADVISORY TO
GALE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING. W TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS TO 35-40
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS
E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE DAY...THEN INTO THE MID ATLC/DEEP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE N/NE...DIMINISHING TO ARND 15KTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20KTS OFFSHORE
BY SUNSET. SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND INTO THE W
ATLC THRU MIDWEEK...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES. MODERATE TO FRESH
NE SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE ON MON WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE E THRU
DAYBREAK TUE...BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE BY MIDDAY WED. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH AN ERLY SWELL INTO THE E FL COAST. SEAS
4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE AND IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RH OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND FUEL STATE REQUIRED ISSUANCE OF RED
FLAG WARNING FOR BULK OF AREA EXCEPT ST LUCIE AND MARTIN CO`S.
THIS IS THE FIRST EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ANTICIPATED RED FLAG EVENT
SINCE MAY 17TH.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW RH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OR GREATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER HOWEVER AND FUEL STATE
SHOULD NOT BE DRY ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOV 2ND...

DAB 43 1993
MCO 46 1993
MLB 45 1993
VRB 47 1993

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  44  66  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  42  67  54 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  65  44  69  56 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  63  41  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  43  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  66  44  69  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





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