Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 191504 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1104 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FL PANHANDLE EASTWARD. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN EXITING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN AREAS
AND APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL AS
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM APPROACHING S/W AND FRONT
LEFT QUADRANT OF U/L JET MAY HELP GENERATE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
LIKELY TO PIN THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFT...THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. VCTS IN TAFS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  40  30  60  20
MLB  89  71  86  68 /  40  50  60  30
VRB  90  70  84  68 /  40  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  90  71  83  67 /  40  30  60  20
FPR  90  68  85  67 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY


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