Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
352 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THRU TONIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR HAS LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS SO
FAR. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS SPARKING SOME CONVECTION WHICH IS
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INLAND FAIRLY QUICKLY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVE DUE TO BOUNDARY
COLLISION NEAR LAKE COUNTY. STEERING FLOW IS QUITE WEAK SO SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THAT ALSO MEANS
THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH PUSH BACK TO THE EAST COAST...THOUGH
A FEW CELLS COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. ON SAT...SOME HIGHER
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS
INITIATING ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

SAT-MON...POSITIVELY TILTED RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL SLIDE EWD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND LAGGING OVER THE SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SWRLY STEERING LYR FLOW TENDING TO PUSH ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF
REGIME CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS REFLECT THIS...AVERAGING 50-60 PCT WHICH IS ABOUT
10-20 PCT ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

TUE-THU..GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPARITY IN HOW MUCH MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS AND FL FROM
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARD THIS END
WHILE THE ECM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
ERN CONUS AND ERODING THE WRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A TUTT-TYPE LOW REACHING THE BAHAMAS ON WED AND
EITHER MOVING INTO SE FL (ECM) OR ACROSS THE BREADTH OF SOUTH FL
(GFS) ON THU. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT FORWARD/W-NW FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
FCST GRIDS SHOW CLIMO POPS TUE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WED-THU
HOWEVER POPS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON ONE OR BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT LOW. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE WILL COLLIDE WITH WEST COAST BREEZE OVER
THE INTERIOR 22Z-24Z ROUGHLY OVER LAKE COUNTY. HAVE INTRODUCED
TEMPO TSRA FOR KLEE WHILE KEEPING OTHER INTRR TERMINALS IN VCTS.
THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH PUSH BACK TO THE COAST EXCEPT POSSIBLY
VOLUSIA COUNTY. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE TREASURE COAST 16Z-18Z SPREADING NORTH AND INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...E/SE FLOW 10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST WILL VEER TO THE
S/SW AND DECREASE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND THIS EVENING.

SAT-TUE...BOTH THE NWPS AND WNWAVE FLAVORS OF WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE BACK TO SUMMER-LONG BIAS OF GENERATING PEAK SEAS
AVERAGING ABOUT A FT HIGHER THAN REALITY. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS
INVOF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP PEAK WINDS
NEAR 15KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE...2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  90 /  20  40  30  60
MCO  75  93  75  93 /  30  50  30  60
MLB  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
VRB  74  90  74  90 /  20  40  30  50
LEE  77  93  77  93 /  30  40  30  60
SFB  75  94  75  93 /  30  40  30  60
ORL  76  93  76  92 /  30  40  30  60
FPR  74  90  73  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER


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