Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 310721
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...

CURRENT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT
FROM NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PERSISTENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE BETWEEN -6 AND -
7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE GFS HIGHLIGHTS FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING...AND IF IT DOES...WILL LIKELY REMAIN PINNED ALONG THE
SPACE COAST OR TREASURE COAST. IT HELP MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR
THE EAST COAST SHOULD IT DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS SOUTHWARD.

WITH THAT SAID EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON
GROWS OLD WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS REMAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS. MARINERS ON INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
TO THE SKY WESTWARD FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING STORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH A SCHC FOR A
SHOWER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL
THIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.

HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY
SSW/SW INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT...A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR OR OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SW FLOW TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER.
GFS PWATS ARE FORECAST FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WRN PENINSULA TOWARD THE
INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING AND MID DAY AND THEN TWD THE EAST COAST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANCE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
FROM 60-70 PCT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LVL WIND FIELDS AND THERE WILL THE CHANCE OF SOME
SOME TRAINING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STORMS MOVING TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE WESTWARD ACROSS S FL WITH
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE FL-GA
BORDER. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW/WSW AND REMAIN AND CONTINUE
TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LYR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS FROM 2.0-2.2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 1.9 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IN
THE 60-70 PCT RANGE WITH 50 PCT FOR FAR SRN AREAS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MON-FRI...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY WED. SLOW
LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING ALL
AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU INTO
FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM
AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH AND
SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR TAFS FOR AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOIST CONDITIONS IN A SWRLY FLOW WITH SHRA/TSRA
BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E/NE. VCTS 18Z-19Z WITH
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS ADDING TEMPO GROUPS WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE.
THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...PERHAPS
UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION.
OFFSHORE MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND FROM MID DAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MON-TUE...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH S/SW
WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME STORMS STILL
MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  87  73 /  70  50  70  40
MCO  90  74  87  74 /  60  40  70  40
MLB  89  75  87  75 /  70  50  70  40
VRB  90  74  87  70 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  89  76  87  75 /  60  40  70  40
SFB  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
ORL  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
FPR  91  74  88  73 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER



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