Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 211401
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1001 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Morning satellite and radar imagery continue to show
a line of showers and isolated storms developing along a lingering
weak frontal trough extending from near Stuart northeastward into
the Atlantic. A weak low level E/NE flow will continue to bring
this shower activity onshore and therefore highest rain chances
will exist across Martin and southern St. Lucie counties this
morning, with HRRR/local WRF guidance indicating shower activity
and potentially a thunderstorm or two transitioning inland this
afternoon toward/north of Lake Okeechobee. From Lake Kissimmee to
Melbourne northward, a drier airmass in place will keep rain
chances out of the forecast and also lead to less cloud cover with
mostly to partly sunny skies expected. This will allow highs to
reach the lower 90s over the north interior (Orlando/Lake county)
with upper 80s along the coast. Forecast on track with no changes
planned.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions expected. Greatest chance
for tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be from KFPR-KSUA through
early afternoon with onshore moving showers/isolated storms along
weak frontal trough.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...(Previous Discussion) Pressure gradient will
tighten a bit today and produce east northeast winds 10-15 knots
this afternoon. The north wind component will produce a choppy
wind wave esp in the Gulf Stream and lingering swells from "Jose"
will produce combined seas (wind wave and Swell) up to 6 feet so
will continue Caution headline for small craft in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  85  75 /  10  30  50  40
MCO  91  74  87  74 /  10  10  50  30
MLB  88  75  86  76 /  10  30  50  40
VRB  88  74  86  75 /  30  30  50  40
LEE  92  73  88  74 /  10  10  50  20
SFB  91  73  87  74 /  10  20  50  30
ORL  91  74  87  74 /  10  10  50  30
FPR  88  74  86  75 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Volkmer



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