Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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760
FXUS62 KMLB 221846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR BOATING/HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LOW...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STALL AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AT AROUND
850MB/5000 FEET AND ABOVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...THE STEERING WINDS IN THE
850-500MB LAYER ARE STILL FROM THE WEST. THIS WOULD TEND TO PUSH
SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE
COAST/EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC AREAS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID LEVEL
500MB RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE...THROUGH 10000
FEET...AND STRONG ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW...TO 15 MPH... TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BUILDS AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UT/CO FEEDS WARM MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE
FLOW INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOOKING AT 20-30 POP AS THE MOIST
BUT STABLE MARINE AIR MASS MOVES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

MON-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
WIND FLOW REGIME...THOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY LATE WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THE GFS SHOWS A FEW RIBBONS OF VERY DRY
AIR ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP POPS LOW...SO NO REAL/TRUE ONSET OF THE WET
SEASON IS EVIDENT FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCPT MVFR MIST VC KFPR BTWN 09Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...

FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...QUITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT THEN SEAWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EASTERLY FLOW
10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT FRI AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

MON-TUE....FORECAST MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 4 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT A 15 KNOT ONSHORE
FLOW. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW PERIODS OF 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL BE POOR AND EXPECT THAT EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY SAT NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  84  73  85 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  72  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  74  86  77  85 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  72  88  74  86 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  73  90  73  91 /  10  20  10  20
SFB  73  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  73  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  71  88  74  86 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
RADAR/IMPACT WX UPDATE...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....ULRICH



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