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000
FXUS62 KMLB 100200
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LATEST SURFACE PLOT OF METARS AND BUOYS ALONG WITH RADAR
AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WAS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS BY LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND OR DRIZZLE WAS BEING RECORDED TO AROUND GAINESVILLE THEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH. WEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVECTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATOCU THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS TO PICKUP SHARPLY TO 15 TO 20 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

EVENING ZONE UPDATE ADDRESSES OVERNIGHT WINDS...CLOUD COVER AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (WIND CHILLS). LOWEST WIND CHILLS EXPECTED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE FOUR/4 WHERE THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
INITIALLY ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR...TEMPO LIFR...CEILINGS IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WHEN THE
COOLER AIR MASS STARTS MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WORKS
ITS WAY INTO AND DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING A MISLEADING SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 8
KNOTS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. WINDS WERE MORE ROBUST AT BUOY 010 AT SOUTH 17 TO 21
KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SEAS. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THROUGH MID PORTION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ALL NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES AND THE SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET ZONES OUT TO 60 MILES LOOKS GOOD. FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE STILL EXPECTED OFFSHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER
BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...STRONG DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ON WED WITH BRISK & GUSTY NW WINDS PREVAILING THRU THE
MIXING LYR. THESE WINDS WILL USHER MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
WED FOR BOTH WINDS AND LONG DURATION LOW RH VALUES.

DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THU WITH NO ONSHORE
COMPONENT EXPECTED. SO HAVE RAISED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT MARTIN FOR 4 HOURS OR MORE OF LOW RH. WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS OF A FACTOR...N/NW 10 TO 14 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR WED 10 FEB 2010:
ORL: 52/1947
DAB: 46/1971
VRB: 55/1971
MLB: 48/1971

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 11 FEB 2010:
ORL: 29/1947
DAB: 30/1971
VRB: 35/1974
MLB: 32/1973

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN      RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN
LAKE-     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WIMMER/LASCODY