Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011341
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE 12Z
TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE AND TAMPA MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. CAPE CANAVERAL THE EXCEPTION WHERE
THE DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER IN WITH A NOTICEABLE DRIER TREND
ABOVE 15000 FEET MOVING IN. THE TAMPA...CAPE AND MIAMI SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THEY
ARE STILL AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. THE TALLAHASSEE
AND JACKSONVILLE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WESTERLIES ABOVE ROUGHLY 2500
FEET. THE THREE SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WERE INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.8 INCHES OR HIGHER. FIRST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM
NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. LASTLY BOTH THE
CURRENT RUC UPDATE RUN AND 06Z GFS SHOW VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.

DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE LIMITED OVER THE NORTH BUT BETTER TO THE
SOUTH WHERE THE MOISTURE RESIDES. GFS SHOWING A FLATTER MID
LEVEL/500MB FLOW WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLOWER BOUNDARY MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON FORECAST OF 50 POP NORTH AND 60 POP SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON MORE MOISTURE...BETTER DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND A VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPDATES TO THE WIND FIELDS.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SOUTH OF IT. MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE BEING REALIZED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT...EXPECT
SCHC-CHC SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES (SCT-NMRS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLD-
SCT LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE FORECAST.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FROM NEAR KMCO SOUTHWARD...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE STEERING
FLOW FOR CELLS WILL REMAIN OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING OFFSHORE
FLOW (CAPE SOUTHWARD) BECOMING LIGHT ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WE WILL STILL REALIZE AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.

AFTER SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE/MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH
LATE EVENING ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THU...THE BASE OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT
OVER FL. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WASHING OUT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PRODUCE AN E/NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUT WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY HIGH.
THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE HAVE KEPT 40
POPS AND LOWERED ELSEWHERE TO 30 POP. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (BEACHES) AND NEAR 90 INLAND.

FRI...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS OVER FL. THE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS RAIN-
FREE...AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT A SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WHICH
WILL PUSH EAST TO THE COAST TOWARD EVENING. HAVE DRAWN 40 POPS ALL
AREAS BUT AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NORTH INTERIOR
(NORTH OF ORLANDO) LOOK THE MOST FAVORED.

WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A NOTICEABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN. THE FAST MOVING
STORMS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BUT COULD
CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...60S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.

MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
NW BAHAMAS. DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS EITHER DAY BUT SOME
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN NORTHWARD BY TUE AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
WILL MONITOR TAF SITES...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF
THRU MID/LATE MORNING...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. LIGHT EARLY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KSFB/KMCO...SO SCT-NMRS AFTN SHRA WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF KMCO TODAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL RESIDE.
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS STILL MAIN AVIATION THREATS.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. CELL DIRECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 FOOT JUST OFF THE BEACH TO 3 TO 4 FEET FROM 20NM
AND BEYOND. 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS AND ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
STILL A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH EARLY
MORNING OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...(NE NORTH OF
IT)...BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT
WILL AGAIN TAKE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LAND TO
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
AOB 3 FT BUT MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS. DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS.

THU...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PRODUCING E/NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

FRI...THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SO
WINDS SHOULD START OUT QUITE LIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PUSH OFFSHORE
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.

WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT
AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE. BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM WHERE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ON MON CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE LATE EVENING. LATEST GAUGE
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITHIN ACTION STAGE.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN
FURTHER RISES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVE.

THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND
THESE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  88  73 /  50  20  30  20
MCO  89  73  90  72 /  60  20  40  10
MLB  86  74  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
VRB  88  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20
LEE  89  73  90  72 /  50  20  40  10
SFB  88  73  90  72 /  50  20  30  10
ORL  88  75  90  73 /  60  20  40  10
FPR  88  72  88  71 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








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