Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
660 FXUS62 KMLB 130109 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 909 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Update...Very quiet conditions prevail tonight across east central FL, with no radar returns detected and generally clear skies this evening. Cloud cover has begun to build from the north, with a scattered to broken cirrus deck expected to blanket most of the area by daybreak due to high level moisture arriving later. No significant changes made to the previous forecast, with lows a few degrees above normal in the upper 60 s to low 70s tonight. Monday...(previous) A stalled surface boundary near south Florida lifts northward on Monday, and southeast flow around 10-15 mph will aid in increasing low level moisture. Scattered showers and lightning storms return to the forecast tomorrow afternoon with coverage increasing to 40-50 percent. While CAPE is limited, steep low level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km and lift along the sea breeze may allow for a stronger updraft. A dry air mass above 700mb and DCAPE values ~800 J/kg could support strong wind gusts up to 45 mph where stronger storms develop. Afternoon highs then climb into the mid 80s along the coast, warming into the upper 80s/ low 90s across the interior. Increasing moisture will support heat index values in the mid to upper 90s across the interior, nearing 100 in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 907 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions prevail overnight, with mostly clear skies becoming SCT/BKN200-250 with high level moisture filling in north to south prior to daybreak. Light and variable winds become east to southeast and increase to 10-15 knots by 15-17Z with gusts of 20-25 knots likely at coastal terminals from 17Z onward. Another active sea breeze day anticipated tomorrow, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected after 18Z, beginning first at interior terminals. Have included vicinity mention at all sites for now, with TEMPOs added in future packages. After the initial collision, activity will push back towards coastal sites after 20Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Tonight-Monday...East winds around 10 kts veer southeast overnight. Poor boating conditions develop into Monday afternoon as southeast winds increase to 15-20 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft gradually build to 3-4 ft through the period. Coverage of isolated to scattered lightning storms return across the local waters tomorrow afternoon with coverage ranging 20-40 percent. Tuesday-Friday...Boating conditions are forecast to briefly deteriorate across the local Atlantic waters Tuesday into Wednesday, with south-southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots and seas increasing to 5 to 6 feet across the offshore waters and 3 to 4 feet across the nearshore waters thanks to the approaching cold front. Winds are then forecast to diminish gradually out of the west late Wednesday into Thursday at 10 to 15 knots, with seas falling to 2 to 3 feet. By Friday, winds become southerly at 10 to 15 knots, with seas remaining around 2 feet. Seas will also be somewhat choppy, with a dominant period of 4 to 7 seconds driven primarily by the wind. Scattered showers and isolated to scattered storms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters through the period due to increasing moisture ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, the crossing of the cold front across the waters on Wednesday, and then diurnally- driven development moving offshore Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 85 73 92 / 10 40 30 50 MCO 72 89 73 96 / 0 50 30 40 MLB 73 85 74 91 / 10 40 20 40 VRB 71 87 74 93 / 0 40 20 30 LEE 72 90 73 93 / 0 50 30 40 SFB 71 89 73 95 / 0 50 30 40 ORL 72 89 73 95 / 0 50 30 40 FPR 70 87 74 93 / 0 40 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper LONG TERM...Sedlock AVIATION...Schaper