Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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546
FXUS62 KMLB 061927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NRN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS SRN AREAS
NEAR THE DEVELOPING/SHARPENING CSTL TROUGH THAT PUSHED ONSHORE
ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH IS DELINEATING WARMER
TEMPS INTO THE 70S FROM TITUSVILLE SSW TO OKEECHOBEE AND STILL IN
THE 60S WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING AS
POS TILT MID LVL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN GULF COAST TWD THE NE
GULF LATE TONIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL-SRN PENINSULA
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING. DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE SECTIONS WHERE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT NWD TO
MARTIN AND PERHAPS ST LUCIE COUNTY INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING WHERE
A STRAY LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCES BELOW 20
PCT MENTIONABLE RANGE AND KEEP THE BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES
NNE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATER TONIGHT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT SUNRISE BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING INTO LATE
MORNING AND MID DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES
AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT MID 40S
TREASURE COAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME BUT NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING ON
WED MORNING WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS)...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION IN TEMPS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO LATE AFTN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 1-2 KFT BY EARLY EVENING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHRA IN THE KVRB-
KSUA CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DEEPEN INTO LATE TONIGHT AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFT 08Z AND INCREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 27-30 KNOTS PSBL ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
WRAP AROUND CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED INTO MID DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG MON-WED THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NORTH FL THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  58  39  65 /  70  10   0  10
MCO  46  59  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
MLB  49  59  40  65 /  80  10   0  10
VRB  51  61  39  65 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  42  58  40  65 /  60   0   0  10
SFB  47  60  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
ORL  47  59  42  64 /  60  10   0  10
FPR  51  60  39  64 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



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