Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER







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