Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240120
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
820 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN MONDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TUE-WED...

THRU TONIGHT...
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AFFECTED THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE VOLUSIA COAST.  THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WAS WEAK SO LITTLE BOUNDARY INTERACTION OCCURRED. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH/PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 9 PM.

MOIST SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT STABILIZATION SHOULD INHIBIT ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. MOS IS HITTING LOW CEILINGS VERY HARD BUT WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAYING UP A BIT...WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING SERIOUS SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG.

DO NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

MON...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WHICH WILL DELAY SFC HEATING. HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS
LIFTS/DISSIPATES WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WARM IT GETS. BUT HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH MAY TIE OR EVEN
BREAK ONE OR MORE RECORDS (SEE BELOW). RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS. HAVE DRAWN 30 POPS NORTH AND 20 POPS SOUTH WHICH IS A
LITTLE ABOVE CONSENSUS MOS. SO IT IS SAFE TO SAY MOST AREAS WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE VERY LOW (IFR/LIFR) CEILINGS DEVELOPING
04-06Z WHICH SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 15Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT FROM
MVFR THROUGH VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON.  WINDS AND SEAS
WERE ALREADY DIMINISHING NEAR SHORE SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THERE EXPIRE AT 10 PM.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MELBOURNE TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH TODAY OF 86F.

RECORD HIGHS FOR MON NOV 24:

DAB 85 1992
MCO 86 1992
MLB 88 1979
VRB 85 1948

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER








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