Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 061330
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME DRIER AIR HAS
CREEPED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A VORT MAX THAT HAD PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE GFS DID NOT QUITE SHOW THE EXTENT OF THIS DRYING. THERE WAS
LIKELY A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...THIS WAS COMING AT THE EXPENSE OF QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS.  THE SLIGHT DRYING AND LINGERING CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT
TO DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
WERE SHOWING.  HOWEVER...ONCE LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS GET
GOING...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN.  THE HRRR AND WRF LIKE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE...BUT THINK THAT THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION WILL
GENERATE THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.  HAVE MADE
MINOR POP AND WEATHER GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS...THINKING THAT SCATTERED POPS WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO TS 17-20Z ALONG COAST EXCEPT 18Z-21Z DAB.
LATER ONSET FOR INTERIOR AERODROMES WITH HIGHEST PROBS 20Z-24Z.
LINGERING DEBRIS RA AND A FEW TS RUMBLES POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THESE WINDOWS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE WATERS PRODUCES A LIGHT-GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOULD BE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...KELLY


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