Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280813
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
PROVIDE A COOL NORTH WIND FLOW. IT LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT
FOR THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...WHERE SCATTERED MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH ASHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH TO THE COAST NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL SWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY BACKED TO THE NORTH. MODELS
SUGGEST ANY MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THIS SHOULD SET UP A MODERATE RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE COAST TO
THE INTERIOR. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S INLAND WITH
SOME LOWER 40S AROUND LAKE GEORGE. COASTAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH.

WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A LIGHTER WIND FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MODIFY THE EXISTING AIR MASS RIGHT AWAY SO MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S FROM NORTH
OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTH AND THE MID 70S TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES. THE PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW HELPS TO
MODIFY AIR MASS MUCH MORE SUNDAY THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FORT PIERCE OKEECHOBEE COUNTY SOUTH
WHERE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE LOW 50S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD
COUNTIES AND THE MID 50S AT THE COAST FROM SOUTH BREVARD SOUTH.
MONDAY MORNING LOWS UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COUNTY AND
AROUND 60 EASTERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH
BREVARD TO JUPITER INLET.

MON-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA RESULTING IN CONTINUE ONSHORE...EAST TO
NORTHEAST...WINDS. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO HOLD PRECIPITATION
TO THE COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING
THE PRECIPITATION WELL INLAND TUE AND WED THEN BACKS OFF ON THU.
FOR CONTINUATION SAKE DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE ONGOING
POP/WEATHER FORECASTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE AN INLAND
COASTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WELL INLAND AND AT THE TREASURE COAST...VERO BEACH SOUTH TO
JUPITER INLET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE FL035 EXISTS AT COASTAL SITES...GENERALLY KVRB-KSUA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INDICATED BEHIND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING 20-25 KNOTS IN THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. SPEEDS MAY EASE A LITTLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTH COAST...BUT IT WILL STILL NOT BE GOOD FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY EASE WINDS MORE...BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE GULF STREAM AT LEAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

SAT-SUN...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
AND 15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET OCCASIONALLY 6 FEET IN
THE GULF STREAM. INCREASING SWELL COMPONENT AND PERIOD ALONG WITH
TIDAL EFFECTS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
EACH DAY.

MON-TUE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY
BACK TO THE NORTH...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY FOR
THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET MONDAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY  HIGHER SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  46  69  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  46  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  50  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  51  74  58 /  05   0   0   0
LEE  62  43  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  46  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  48  72  54 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  53  73  57 /  05   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER



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