Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 260123
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
Current through tonight...early evening interaction between multiple
sea breeze and outflow boundaries across Lake/SW Orange/NW Osceola
Counties is produce isolated convection between Lake Apopka and the
attractions area. Some sporadic additional development is possible
for this area over the next 1-2hr, followed by clearing skies and
seasonably warm/humid wx. Evening ZFP/grid update will confined pops
to around the current small area of showers/storms. Otherwise, the
current forecast looks fine.
.AVIATION...VFR for the rest of tonight as isolated convection
should occur away from the local aerodromes, save for a possible
shower/storm near KISM through 02Z-03Z. A little higher chance for
diurnal convection areawide along local sea/lake breezes. Timing for
highest chances looks to be about 17-20Z for the coastal aerodromes
and 21Z-24Z for the interior sites.
.MARINE...Buoy and C-Man sites show winds out of the S to SSE with
seas in the 2-3ft range. Could see a modest nocturnal increase in
magnitude of winds overnight, but probably not enough to nudge seas
any higher than they currently are. Nosig changes for the MAOR other
than to adjust and push back precip chances.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/
Sun...Further weakening of the subtropical ridge will bring even
higher rain chcs on Sunday in the form of afternoon storms. Light
westerly winds along with slight cooling aloft will promote rain
coverage to around 45 to 60 percent with inland spots more favored
for higher measured rain amounts through afternoon.
Mon-Fri...Frontal boundary north of the area weakens as ridge builds
back across southern half of Florida into early next week. Best
chance for showers and storms will continue over the interior where
sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions will be favored. Then into
mid-late week another front will move into the southeast U.S. and
shift ridge farther south. This will allow for a more predominant
W/SW flow that will increase overall moisture and concentrate
greatest convective coverage across east central Florida.
Highs will remain closer to normal through the work week with highs
in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast to low 90s over the
interior. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s.
SCT shra along with isold TS mnly along/near I-4 and across
interior sections of Osceola Co. to Lake Okeechobee into this eve.
Tempo MVFR conds in shra/tsra psbl in the affected locations.
Light onshore winds through dusk wl become VRBL tonight. Somewhat
higher rain chcs SUN wl have a greater chc of producing brief
cig/vsby reductions to both coastal and inland forecast sites
during afternoon into early evening.
Tonight-Sun...The slowly weakening ridge across south central
Florida will continue lighter winds and seas 2-3 ft and a
south/southwest gradient wind. With higher moisture areawide, expect
scattered showers and storms near the coast. Afternoon sea breeze
generated showers/storms should mainly occur mostly inland Sunday.
Mon-Wed...A weak front nears north FL Sunday and stalls before
building back into early this week. Then another front moves into
the southeast U.S. with ridge axis shifting south. Favorable boating
conditions are generally expected to continue with wind speeds
remaining below 15 knots and seas 1-3 feet.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 91 72 89 / 20 40 30 30
MCO 75 95 73 93 / 20 60 40 50
MLB 75 90 73 89 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 73 90 71 89 / 20 40 30 30
LEE 77 95 75 92 / 30 60 40 60
SFB 76 94 74 92 / 20 50 40 40
ORL 76 94 75 92 / 20 60 40 50
FPR 73 90 71 89 / 20 40 30 30