Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
226 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST IN A LONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLAND. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE COAST FROM SOUTH BREVARD TO JUPITER
INLET...AND SOUTH...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
EASES LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE MOST RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND A LOCAL OB
CHECK/WALK OUTSIDE...SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF LOW MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THUS
WILL CALL FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR. THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FROM THE LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA FAA AND NWS RADARS WERE PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH
VERY LARGE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLAND. GFS MAV MOS INDICATING LOW POP AREA WIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
POP...11 TO 18 PERCENT...STUART TO PALM BEACH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT A NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PULLING A LITTLE STABLE
MARINE AIR MASS DOWN THE PENINSULA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR
AND LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL AREAS NORTH BREVARD SOUTH

SAT...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL GENERATE BRISK AFTERNOON NORTH
WINDS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH
ONTO THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH
BREVARD COAST.

SAT NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE PULLED FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP LOWS
INTO THE MID 50S INTERIOR...UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUTH
BREVARD TO MARTIN AND THE LOW 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES
COCOA BEACH SOUTH.


SUN...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND THE LOW
60S AT THE BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL

PREVIOUS EXTEND ZONES DISCUSSION
MON-THU...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS
SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S
INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.


&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MARINE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE
ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND PAST LAKE AND
NORTH POLK COUNTIES. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS KOMN-JUPITER INLET WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES KMLB SOUTH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ASHORE KSUA SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST 12 TO 14 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WAS
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH IS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THAT THE CMAN SITE IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. TIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET STILL A GOOD
CALL. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THE BREVARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET FOR NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS
15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION FOR THE
GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL BE
CHOPPY.

SUN....NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL.

MON-TUE.. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  59  81  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  64  81  61  80 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  64  82  62  81 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  59  82  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  61  81  60  82 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  65  82  61  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER




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