Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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753
FXUS62 KMLB 261318
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
918 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Water vapor images show some drying aloft has taken place over the
area. This is also indicated by PWATs on morning Cape Canaveral
Sounding down to 1.50 inches. Cooler aloft as well with 500 mb temp
at -8.5C. Low pressure aloft over the NE Gulf of Mexico drifting a
little south today. Little more moisture expected to advect back
into the area through late today so will keep scattered PoPs in
forecast. Light and variable winds this morning will become light
onshore midday-early afternoon. Latest meso model runs indicate
isolated convection will begin along east coast sea breeze by early
afternoon. Coverage increases to scattered as the boundary drifts
inland and interacts with other mesoscale boundaries through the mid-
late afternoon. The cool temps aloft could yield isolated stronger
storms late afternoon where the strongest boundary collisions occur.

Flow light ssw at steering levels today. Storms mainly expected to
drift/propagate inland along the sea breeze...then a few cells may
drift back toward the east coast before diminishing this evening.

Current forecast on track and not planning more than minor tweaks to
first period with morning update.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR outside of convection next 24 hrs. Isold-sct
shra/tsra near east coast midday-early aftn then sct coverage
shra/tsra shifting to interior mid-late aftn into early eve. Tempo
MVFR vsbys/cigs in convection. Light/variable winds this morning
becoming light onshore late morning/afternoon as the ECSB develops
and pushes slowly inland. East/west sea breeze boundary collisions
late day interior peninsula. Winds lgt/var this evening/overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Light and variable winds this morning becoming onshore
but generally 10kt or lower this afternoon. Seas 2 ft or lower near
the coast and 2-3 ft well offshore. A long period swell around 10
seconds persists.


&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

FORECAST UPDATE...Glitto
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...Lascody



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