Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190923
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
423 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Some Fog, Locally Dense, Along the I-4 Corridor Again This
Morning...
...Temperatures Will Remain Above Normal This Week...

Current...Deepening onshore flow this morning across ECFL. Surface
high pressure has re-established itself just off of the mid Atlc
coast. Temperatures across the area were mild and generally in the
60s with a few L70s along the Space/Treasure coasts. Surface winds
were light onshore. KMLB WSR-88D radar showing mainly dry
conditions. Patchy dense fog has formed along the I 4 corridor.

Today-Tonight...Expect fog/low clouds to burn-off/dissipate by
mid-morning. While the surface high off of the mid Atlc coast will
slowly drift further into the western Atlc, the associated ridge
axis will remain north of the area providing light to moderate
onshore (E/ESE) flow. Wind speeds will approach 15 mph with some
higher gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts and 8-13 mph on
average over the interior. Mid-level ridging remains forecast to
amplify off of the FL coast holding firm control of the weather
pattern across the peninsula to include the mid Atlc and southeast
U.S. PWAT values just under an inch areawide are forecast to
increase by a couple of tenths as some deeper moisture moves
northward. Some local models try to spit out some low QPF across
the far southern reaches of our coverage warning area late this
afternoon, but for now will leave mentionable PoPs absent from the
grids/zones.

Unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the U70s to around 80
degrees along the coast and L-M80s well into the interior. Overnight
lows in the 60s with the deepening onshore flow. Some areas along
the Space/Treasure coasts may not fall below 70 degrees, especially
if the onshore breeze remains elevated. Given 925 mb winds stay up
around 25 kts one would suspect stratus cloud development would be a
much more likelihood than fog for late overnight into early Tue
morning. However, should fog be possible at all over ECFL, it would
likely be found north and west of I-4. Will not include mention at
this time in the grids/zones.

Tue-Sun...Deep layer high pressure, at the surface and aloft, will
be centered over the southwestern Atlc through Thu. The mid level
ridge is forecast to weaken and retrograde W/SW into the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. A persistent east to southeast wind flow will
keep temperatures above normal with upper 70s along the immediate
coast to the mid 80s inland. Record highs look generally out of
reach but the best chance will be on Tue at SFB (85 in 2014).
There will be a better chance for a few record warm Min temps
along the coast due to the persistent onshore flow.

Rain chances look quite low but the breezy E/SE flow will
occasionally produce a few showers over the Atlc that cross
portions of the coast. Will handle this with a silent 10 percent
PoP. The primary weather hazard will be patchy dense fog in the
early mornings over the interior.

There is no indication at this time of significant cold air
intrusion before the end of the month. This may result in a record
warm February for some locations in central Florida, such as
Orlando and Melbourne.

&&

.AVIATION...
Increasing low-level (ESE/SE) winds across the area as evidenced
by 915 MHZ Cape wind profilers early this morning. IFR/LIFR VSBYs
in fog will likely be confined to interior terminals. VFR
expected outside any early morning fog/stratus development thru
this evening. 925 mb winds increase to 25 kts areawide tonight
making fog less likely and stratus more plausible.


&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Some early morning fog possible near the coast of
Volusia. Surface ridging re-establishes itself north of the local
waters. This will promote deepening ESE flow with speeds
increasing 10-15 kts, except 15-20 kts offshore leg south of
Sebastian Inlet. Small craft should exercise caution here.
Tonight...the slightly higher winds push west into the near shore
leg south of Sebastian. Seas will build 3-4 ft near shore and 4 ft
offshore today with some 5 ft seas over the Gulf Stream tonight.

Tue-Fri...The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain north
of the waters this week and produce an East to Southeast wind
flow. The pressure gradient will support 10-15 knots, except 15-20
knots across the southern waters. A period of 20 knots is
indicated by the GFS Tue evening offshore the Treasure coast but
do not anticipate any Small Craft Advisories at this time. Will
likely need a Caution headline though. Seas 3-4ft over the Volusia
waters and 4-5 feet elsewhere. Combination of wind wave and swell
should build seas to 6 feet over the offshore waters Wed night
through Friday. Shower coverage will be isolated at best.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  65  80  66 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  80  69  82  69 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  81  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  84  67  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  82  64  84  66 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  83  66  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  81  69  83  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock



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