Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 181923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL/HAS COME ASHORE THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ROUGHLY BETWEEN HOMOSASSA SPRINGS AND SARASOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WILL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BRUSH NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND HRRR 3KM...FORECAST SOUNDING
HODOGRAPHS AND WIND PROFILES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUGGEST STRONG
GUSTS VS. SIGNIFICANT ROTATION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGER SCALE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 19/00Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBY.
18/19Z-19/00Z...TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH G40KT MAINLY NORTH OF
KDAB-KISM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS VC KLEE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6 NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 4
TO 5 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY BECOMING
WEST NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY
NIGHT.
 THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON-TUE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  71  58  76 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  68  77  57  80 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  70  80  59  79 /  60  30  20  10
VRB  71  81  58  77 /  60  30  10  10
LEE  66  76  56  79 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  68  77  56  78 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  68  76  58  78 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  72  80  59  78 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN





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