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000
FXUS62 KMLB 300835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AN UNUSUAL JULY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A FRONTAL
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOME DRIER AIR INTO OUR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST) WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTN WITH MUCH REDUCED STORM CHANCES NORTH OF
ORLANDO. BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET AS GFS MOS IS PULLING BACK A BIT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SFC HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE...HAVE INTRODUCED A LESS THAN 20 POP FOR SHOWERS
OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS (LOCAL WRF AND HRRR)
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN THERE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO THE SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE MOIST BUT DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND GFS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...
THE CURRENT ANOMALOUS WX PATTERN WILL BREAK UP THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. A 100KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF DEEP LYR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...FEEDING INTO A SECOND JET
STREAK OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS THE COMBINED JET ENERGY
TRANSITIONS DOWNSTREAM...THE TROFFING PATTERN OVR THE ERN CONUS WILL
DAMPEN OUT...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD
OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETURNING AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL
FL...DIURNAL CONVECTION DISTRIBUTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
H100-H70 FLOW. REMNANT LOW LVL TROF OVER THE GOMEX ON THU WILL KEEP
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM BUILDING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE FL STRAITS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK S/SW FLOW BLO 10KTS. WHILE A SWRLY FLOW WOULD
FAVOR THE E FL COAST FOR CONVECTION...SUCH A WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
WILL MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO
MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. FURTHERMORE...LINGERING DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE TO THE 20-30PCT RANGE.

BY FRI...WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL TROF WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT
OF PLAY BY THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING NW AND A DEEP LYR RIDGE OVER THE
GOMEX/SRN PLAINS. DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THAT WILL ALLOW BOTH
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO MAKE NEARLY EQUAL INLAND PROGRESS.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WELL...ALLOWING STORM COVERAGE TO RETURN TO
A MORE SEASONABLE 40-50PCT.

S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERATE ABV AVG
TEMPS WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS IN THE M/U70S.

EXTENDED...
PATTERN LOOKS ABOUT PAR FOR CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
MODELS MAINTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT A DEEP
LYR CYCLONE OVER THE PAC NW WILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE NRN STREAM
JET ENERGY THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PREVENT THE TROF FROM GAINING
THE STRENGTH NECESSARY TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AXIS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. BY MON...MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK ERLY
WAVE OVER THE TROPICS WILL HAVE WORKED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE
LCL WX...EVEN IF INDIRECTLY. SCT AFTN/EVNG TSRAS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
13Z AS FRONTAL TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (VRB-SUA) AS SHOWN BY
VCTS WHICH MAY GET UPGRADED TO TEMPO GROUPS FOR ONE OR MORE SITES.
MORE ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH (MCO/DAB/SFB/LEE) AS
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THRU TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN ONSHORE
(E-SE) FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND PUSH OFFSHORE
WITH LOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.

THU-SUN...ANOMALOUS TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER WRN
ATLC/ERN GOMEX. A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ON THU...
BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE FRI AND CONTG THRU WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE THRU SAT. SEAS BCMG 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE ON
SUN AS A LONG ERLY FETCH AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE PUSHES A
SMALL SWELL INTO THE E FL COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  91  77 /  20  10  30  20
MCO  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  90  75  91  78 /  30  20  30  20
VRB  90  73  90  77 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  94  75  95  75 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  94  75  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  94  76  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  90  73  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW