Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

000
FXUS62 KMLB 010015
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND COOLER ON SATURDAY...
...TURNING COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE LOOP...METARS AND BUOY
REPORTS THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPSTREAM METARS IN ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WERE RECORDING NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. THIS COOLER DRIER
AND WINDY AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT.

CLEANED UP THE SKY GRIDS AND AMENDED THE OVERNIGHT WIND GRIDS TO
REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER INCREASE OF NORTHWEST WINDS.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD
SC LATE TONIGHT AND HELP BRING A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FL TOWARD SUNRISE. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE LEAD COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST LOW LVL FLOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS E CENTRAL FL ON SATURDAY. LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS TO 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO
COLDEST MIN TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LOWS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S IN MUCH OF EC FL...EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
FAR RURAL INTERIOR SECTIONS. N-NW WINDS UP NEAR 10 MPH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL MAY IT FEEL EVEN A BIT CHILLIER. MAY EVEN SEE
SOME RECORD MINS SET FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BRISK ON SUNDAY VERSUS
SATURDAY BUT WITH COLD AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA...
HIGH TEMPS AGAIN NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S MOST AREAS
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT...ALLOWING SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS TO BEGIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY...BUT STILL
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MON-THU...(PREVIOUS) GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK AS THE
CONTINENTAL RIDGE A PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR AVG BY MID WEEK...MIN TEMPS
A FEW DEG ABV AVG.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE
BLO H85 TO FOR ISOLD SHRAS TO DVLP...BUT THESE RARELY HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT... ESPECIALLY AS CAPPING IN THE H85-H70 LYR
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS INCREASING TO 16-20 KNOTS SAT MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
25-29 KNOTS AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS 009 AND 010 AT 20NM AND 120NM OFFSHORE
WERE RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT SEAS. THE TRIDENT PIER AND SEBASTIAN
INLET WEATHER SITES WERE RECORDING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9
KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO START INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG WIND
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TAKES PLACE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY REACHING 25-30
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WILL
UPGRADE SCA OFFSHORE TO A GALE WARNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUN-TUE...(PREVIOUS) POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLC/DEEP SOUTH
THEN INTO THE W ATLC.  SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG A MODERATE TO FRESH
NRLY BREEZE ON SUN... THEN NE MON/TUE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-7FT OFFSHORE ON SUN. NE FLOW MON/TUE WILL PUSH A
SWELL COMPONENT IN THE E FL COAST...ALLOWING SEAS TO REBUILD TO
4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE. ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
GULFSTREAM DUE TO THE OPPOSING OPPOSING NRLY SFC WINDS AND SRLY
OCEAN CURRENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FL SATURDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES.

SAT...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SAT AFTN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH NW SFC WINDS NEAR 20MPH...TRANSPORT WINDS 25-30MPH. MIN
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BLO 40PCT AREAWIDE...AOB 25PCT FOR 4-6HRS
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-LAKE HARNEY-LAKE GEORGE. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH OVERALL IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR WILL BE STUNTED
BY ERC VALUES THAT WILL BE LARGELY IN THE M/U20S.

SUN...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER ACRS THE INTERIOR AS SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE N/NE. MIN RH VALUES AOB 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-LAKE HARNEY-LAKE GEORGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOV 2ND...

DAB 43 1993
MCO 46 1993
MLB 45 1993
VRB 47 1993

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  52  64  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  55  65  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  58  67  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  59  68  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  54  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  65  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  65  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  68  44  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX.....LASCODY
PUBLIC DESK...ULRICH
FORECASTS.....WIMMER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.