Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 161908
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD THROUGH JUPITER INLET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG IT. OTHER
ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS
FAR DUE TO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AROUND...CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AROUND AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT OF CELLS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER CELLS MAY CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND NUISANCE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT TIME.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

WED-THU...A 70-90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE STRONG UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL INDUCE A BROAD SFC LOW
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CRANK IT THRU CENTRAL FL
ON WED...THEN INTO S FL ON THU. FRONTAL MOTION WILL BE SLOW BUT
STEADY AS THE ATLC RIDGE OVER FL AND THE FL STRAITS IS QUITE WEAK
AND WILL NOT BE ABLE STALL THE ADVANCE.

DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING BTWN
2.1"-2.2". THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH A RESPECTABLE H85-H50 VORT
BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND H50-H70 LAPSE RATES BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM WILL PRODUCE A WET WED WITH POPS ABV 50PCT AREAWIDE.
POPS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-30PCT ON THU AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
GAINS THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND STEERING WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW
AND PULL DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA WITH PWATS
DROPPING BLO 1.5".

ON WED...MODELS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS ABV H50 THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING.
HOWEVER...RUC40 REGIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
TROF RUNNING ARND -8C THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
KEEP SCT TSRAS IN THE FCST. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG
(M/U80S) ON WED DESPITE THE USUALLY WARMER WRLY FLOW THAT WILL
PREVAIL. LOW PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE ON THU WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE U80S/L90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG (L70S) AS WELL AS
LIGHT NRLY WINDS PUSH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL FL.

FRI-MON...FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN OVER S FL THRU FRI AS THE POST
FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND OFF THE
MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. N/NE SFC/STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE MID LVL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH RELATIVELY
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NWD ON SAT AS THE H100-H70 FLOW VEERS
MORE TO THE E/NE...BUT BY THEN IT WILL BE HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A
MID LVL THETA-E REFLECTION THAN TRUE FRONTAL PROPERTIES. POPS ON SAT
MAY CREEP UP TO THE 50PCT MARK ACRS THE TREASURE COAST...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AOB 40PCT FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD HI PRES REESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE GOMEX/WRN ATLC.

NO SIG COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE...OCEAN MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO AVGS BY MORE THAN
3F DEG.

&&

.AVIATION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND PUSH WILL BE SLOW DUE TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AT/ABOVE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BACK TO AN EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CONVECTION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SINK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY SUNRISE WED MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY`S PRESENCE. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED WITH
FRONT AROUND THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
SAG INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK WED MORNING. WINDS HAVE BACKED
TO EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WHERE THE ECSB HAS
FORMED. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS. MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS REMAINS FOR SCATTERED STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE IN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS
TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

WED-WED NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PUSH THRU
CENTRAL FL AND SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TIGHTEN THE LCL PGRAD
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC...NO SEABREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE...LARGELY DUE TO A VERY LONG PD SWELL
(AOA 15SEC) FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

THU-FRI...FRONTAL TROF WILL PUSH INTO S FL ON THU...ALLOWING A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE TO VEER TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY ON THU...THEN
GRADUALLY TO THE E/NE THRU FRI. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT ON
THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-33FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY
SUNSET THU...CONTG THRU FRI.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS BACK TO THE N...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE
SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. A NEW SWELL TRAIN WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GENERATES A TIGHT PGRAD ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE AT DAYBREAK...BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  86 /  60  60  30  20
MCO  74  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  30
MLB  76  86  73  86 /  50  60  40  30
VRB  74  87  72  86 /  50  60  40  40
LEE  74  89  73  90 /  60  50  30  20
SFB  74  89  74  90 /  60  60  30  20
ORL  75  88  74  90 /  60  60  30  20
FPR  73  87  72  86 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY




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