Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011930
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...STORMS OVER
EASTERN GULF/TAMPA BAY EARLIER THIS MORNING KICKED OUT A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS RACED ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALREADY MOVING OFF THE COAST. BOUNDARY WAS ABLE TO
KICK OFF A ROBUST LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE ROBUST 20-25KT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...MOST LOCATIONS SAW GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH
RANGE AS THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH...WITH SOME 50MPH PLUS
ALONG THE CAPE.

ATMOSPHERE HAS NOW BEEN WELL WORKED OVER ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE GULF COAST
SUPPORTED BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED...WILL
PROBABLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH EMBEDDED STORMS.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...EVEN THIS LESS ROBUST ACTIVITY MAY STILL
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 40MPH.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN LINGERING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH INTO SUNDAY
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MEANDERING AROUND BIG BEND/FL PANHANDLE AND
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING OUT FROM IT ACROSS N FLORIDA
INTO THE GA COAST. SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. WEST-SOUTHWEST
STEERING LAYER FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
SATURDAY AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRING OUT.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO FRIDAY AND TODAY WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN GULF/WEST FLORIDA KICKING OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SERVES AS THE
MAIN INITIATION FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN SPOTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

MONDAY...BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVES NORTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WHILE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHICH
WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS POPS AROUND 50%
RIGHT AT THE COAST AND AROUND 60% WEST OF I95 AND OVER THE INTERIOR.
MORE MORNING SUN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF
UPPER 80S NRN SECTIONS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: TUE-THU...GFS STILL INSISTS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REACH E CENTRAL FL BY MIDWEEK WITH SOME RATHER PRONOUNCED
DRYING IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. THIS SHOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING TWD THE
INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT FOR MID WEEK
BUT LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES WITH CONVECTION
FOCUSING INLAND INTO LATE AFTN EACH DAY. WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE FOR
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL.

FRI-SAT...AN H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
FRIDAY TO THE NRN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP INTO S GA AND FOCUS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FOR THE START OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 50 PCT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN/NEAR ANY CONVECTION. COVERAGE
DIMINISHING AFTER 02/04Z...WITH LINGERING -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS PENINSULA AFTER 02/14Z
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN INTO SUNDAY REMAINS
SIMILAR AS GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL AND RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO S FLORIDA KEEPS WINDS SSW 15-20KTS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. SOUTH OF THE INLET CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS...WINDS
WILL REMAIN MORE BACKED SOUTH OR EVEN SSE WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS. WILL
CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.

SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY 5 FT (WIND
DRIVEN) WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO TONIGHT. FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS WITH MOST ACTIVITY...WITH
GUSTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. HIGH COVERAGE OF GUSTY
MOVING OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

MON-WED...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NWD FROM NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO THE CAPE BY WED. S/SW WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL
VEER TO SE/S INTO MID WEEK. WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS BUT DECREASING TO
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TUE AND WED. SEAS 2-3 FT INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  87 /  30  60  30  50
MCO  75  88  72  88 /  30  60  20  60
MLB  74  90  76  90 /  30  50  20  50
VRB  72  89  73  91 /  40  50  30  50
LEE  76  85  75  86 /  40  60  30  60
SFB  75  88  73  88 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  75  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  73  90  73  91 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST...MOSES
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...LASCODY


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