Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



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