Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190051
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT... WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WELL INTO NORTH FLORIDA...DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDING BACK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY MEAGER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DID ALLOW FOR
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH BOTH SEEING
THEIR FIRST 90F DAY OF THE YEAR AND ALSO BOTH BREAKING DAILY RECORD
HIGHS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BREVARD...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING AS THE LATE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
OTHER BOUNDARIES. HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
VOLUSIA...LIKELY THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THAT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
OFF FLAGLER IN NW FLOW...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION HERE AS WELL.

EVENING FORECAST UPDATES WILL INVOLVE A FEW CHANGES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE U60S-L70S AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO ALL COUNTIES.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SUN...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE BIG
BEND/NRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H25 JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE ERN GULF
PLACING THE PENINSULA IN FAVORABLE UPR DIVG PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE
WARM/HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL ALLOW BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND STEADILY PUSH
INLAND...WITH THE GULF COAST BREEZE MAKING SLIGHTLY BETTER INLAND
PENETRATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CTRL-ERN PENINSULA FOR SHRA/TS
WITH HIGHER COVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 60
NORTH/50 SOUTH - WORRIED THIS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN MOS HAS BEEN
HIGH-BALLING RAIN CHCS AS OF LATE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE...GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCED ASCENT PATTERN.
MAXES IN THE U80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 OVER THE CTRL-SOUTH
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF TS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLD - WDLY SCT TSRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES FROM KTIX
SOUTHWARDS AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES THROUGH
19/04Z. MAIN IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS. AREAS
MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG 19/07Z-
12Z. SYNOPTIC SETUP MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER COVERAGE ON SUN WITH
ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ON BOTH SEA BREEZES AFTER 19/16Z BECOMING SCT-
NMRS AFTER 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SRLY AT AROUND 8-12KT TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH A 3-4FT SWELL...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRC.


BOATERS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST
APPROACHING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST



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