641
FXUS62 KMLB 200536
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
136 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Few nuisance
showers across the interior initially and may handle with VCSH and a
TEMPO group as necessary. Generally a WRLY component of wind thru
the night, then gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into
early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase
speeds to 15-20 kts with higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH
wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure
Coast terminals around 21Z on Mon, where confidence is higher for
convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper
moisture here.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight.
A few lingering showers will continue moving offshore, diminishing
across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions
are then forecast to persist across the peninsula tonight, with
westerly winds remaining around 5 mph. Patchy fog may develop late
tonight into early Monday morning, particularly near the I-4
corridor and areas northward, but confidence in this was too low
to include with the forecast. We will monitor overnight and make
adjustments as needed. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal
values across east central Florida tonight, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters
into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and
becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to
severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of
Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually
diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing
and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this
evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail.
Seas will range from 2-3 feet.

This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft
offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly
increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday
and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the
waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before
gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on
Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or
around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind
speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  83  70  85 /  10  40   0  10
MCO  70  87  70  89 /  20  50   0  20
MLB  73  85  72  85 /  10  50  10  20
VRB  71  87  71  87 /  20  50  10  20
LEE  69  87  70  90 /  20  40   0  10
SFB  69  87  70  89 /  10  50   0  10
ORL  71  87  71  90 /  20  50   0  20
FPR  69  87  70  87 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock