883
FXUS61 KRLX 260757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
357 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend in response to a
cold front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours
will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 248 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Hot and humid today.
 * Enhanced risk for severe storms NE Kentucky through tonight.
 * Slight risk for severe storms rest of the area, except NE
   mountains through tonight.
 * Slight risk for excessive rainfall over the southern two
   thirds of the area through tonight.

Widespread river valley dense fog will gradually dissipate early
this morning.

Frontal boundary, oriented west to east across our north, lifts
north as a warm front this morning, leaving the area under a warm
sector of an approaching cold front. Winds increase from the
southwest, bringing strong moisture advection with boundary layer
theta-e values exceeding 340K by this afternoon. A mid level
shortwave crosses the area this afternoon, providing upper forcing
to enhance convection.

Local bufkit soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE signature with dry
air at the mid levels by this afternoon. Guidance suggest deep
layered shear will limited over most parts of the area, except far
west across NE KY where values of 50 to 60 knots are anticipated.
These ingredients will allow for strong to severe updrafts
/downdrafts, the strongest; farther west where the best dynamics
will be present. With PWATs increasing from 1.3 to 1.7 inches by
this evening, very heavy downpours are likely, some capable to
produce flash flooding. Hi-res CAMs suggest a strong line of
convection arriving to the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 3 PM
spreading east as some elements weaken. A second batch of
convection is forecasted right behind it, but it seems to weaken
as well as the reach NE KY and portions of the Mid Ohio valley.
However, strong to severe storms may be able to survive and
spread east further into WV with the passing of another upper
level shortwave around midnight as convective parameters become
more active, with deep layered shear increasing to 55 knots,
PWATs around 1.7 inches and CAPE about 1200 J/Kg.

SPC maintains an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms over NE
KY, a slight risk roughly across the rest of the area, except
for the northern mountains through tonight. Therefore, expecting
scattered to possibly numerous severe storms around the Tri-
State area this afternoon and evening, with damaging gusty wind,
large hail, and the possibility of tornadoes being the main
threats.

WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across the
southern two thirds of the area, and a marginal risk across the
northern third. This translates to the possibility of very heavy
rain and associated flash flooding.

Despite clouds and convection expected, highs will manage to reach
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s
across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Lows
tonight will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Localized flooding and severe storms possible as a cold front
  crosses Monday.
* Unsettled again with a disturbance on Tuesday.

On Monday, rain and thunderstorms are projected to move through
the area ahead of and along a cold front. This frontal boundary
traverses the area during the afternoon while the parent low,
initially located over the Great Lakes, eases northeast into
Canada. Localized flooding caused by heavy downpours remains
one of the primary concerns for Monday along with the potential
for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms. Any severe
storms that develop could produce damaging wind gusts or hail.

Precipitation chances are projected to diminish as the front
exits Monday night. A few showers may linger into Tuesday,
though the majority of the area should experience a lull in
precipitation during the morning. A shortwave moving through an
upper trough is then expected to reintroduce shower and storm
chances in the afternoon or evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled through Wednesday.
* Dry to close out the week.

An upper level trough remains present over the area on
Wednesday, while a shortwave moving through the trough is
expected to aid in shower and thunderstorms development during
the day. Drier conditions then return late in the work week as
the upper trough slides east and surface high pressure begins
building in from the northwest. High pressure is then expected
to maintain control through the end of the week.

Temperatures should to hover slightly below normal during the
middle of the week, then trend warmer late week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Ongoing convection producing IFR/LIFR conditions at CKB and EKN
through at least 09Z. Once this convection moves east, IFR/LIFR
dense fog is expected to develop along river valleys to affect
mainly EKN, CKB, and PKB during from 09-12Z. Valley fog may be
too shallow to reach CRW and BKW. Any dense fog will quickly
dissipate by 12-13Z.

Increasing chances for strong to severe thunderstorms may result
in greater area coverage Sunday afternoon and evening. Periods
of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected along any convection that
manage to develop. In addition, strong to severe gusty winds,
large hail and localized heavy rain will be possible with
stronger storms. VFR conditions will prevail outside
convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of fog and its intensity may
vary for late tonight into Sunday morning.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ