680
FXUS61 KRLX 300044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
844 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers/storms dissipate through the evening. Dry weather
Thursday through Saturday courtesy of high pressure. Disturbances
bring showers and storms late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Have made minor updates to temperatures, cloud cover, and rain
chances into tonight, but overall the forecast remains on track.
ISOL showers and perhaps a thunderstorm continue across portions
of the area, currently most heavily confined in the vicinity of
a weak pressure trough across the Mid-Ohio Valley. Activity
should continue to gradually diminish through the evening,
transitioning to just the chance for isolated showers early
tonight in/near the northeast mountains. This gives way to a dry
and cool rest of the night, with weak upslope flow resulting in
some stratus development in/near the higher terrain. Patchy fog
is possible tonight, mainly in the river valleys, but could
also occur in areas that received rainfall today. Given general
large scale CAA overnight, was somewhat conservative on fog
coverage tonight.

As of 115 PM Wednesday...

A potent shortwave trough swinging along the base of an upper-
level low is tracking through the middle Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. This is producing widely scattered showers across
the area, which will continue through early this evening.
Freezing levels are only around 7,000 ft AGL this afternoon, so
some heavier showers could produce some small hail. Severe
weather is not expected today, but there is a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall across the north. Flash flood guidance is a
little lower across northern WV (3hr FFG 1.25-1.5") where heavy
rainfall previously fell over the Memorial Day weekend.

Tonight will be chillier than recent nights with lows expected
to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Low stratus is expected to
develop over the mountains, and dense fog may also develop
overnight in spots where rain has fallen today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Upper level troughing over the east coast with high pressure at the
surface will yield quiet conditions heading into the weekend. Overnight
lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the
lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. With dry low levels with dew points in the low 30s
in the mountains, better protected mountain valleys could see
some frost heading into Friday morning with cold air drainage.
Otherwise minimal weather concerns are expected. Ridging
translating east into the Middle Ohio Valley during the day
Friday will signal a return to warmer and more humid conditions
for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as precipitable water values briefly decrease under weak
northwesterly flow. Couldn`t rule out some diurnally favored showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, but coverage will likely be
fairly sparse Monday.

Moisture increases again amid continuing weak flow Tuesday into
Wednesday. This yielding better chances of mainly diurnally driven
convection, although a weak trough approaching Tuesday evening may
help to focus convection.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 825 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions persist throughout much of the area this
evening, with the one exception being brief MVFR/IFR VSBY
restrictions within isolated showers across portions of the
area. Showers will dissipate through the evening, with
developing LIFR/IFR/MVFR stratus in/near the mountains, along
with MVFR/IFR valley fog being the main aviation concerns later
tonight. Any fog will dissipate by ~ 1230Z Thursday, with MVFR
stratocu restrictions gradually dissipating through ~ 1500Z. VFR
conditions then persist area-wide through the remainder of the
TAF period.

Light northwest surface flow or calm conditions are expected
tonight. Light northwest surface flow continues on Thursday,
with occasional 15-20 kt breezes possible in/near the higher
terrain during the afternoon/evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with fog/stratus, high for
Thursday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing, and intensity of fog and
low stratus tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 05/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW