Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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960 FXUS62 KMFL 171639 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1239 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A broad mid-level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today and hang around through Saturday, helping to stabilize the atmosphere and lead to mostly dry weather in the short term period. However, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations mainly on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow. Additionally, while the broad high pressure and presence of a dry layer in the mid-levels should inhibit storm growth, there will remain the chance for a couple of stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the sea breeze. Since the weather will be a bit more stable over the next few days, the main headline will be the abnormally hot conditions for this time of year. The setup responsible for sparking this heat wave is both the presence of a shortwave trough over the Gulf states that will be advecting through the Southeast states and the high pressure over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern produces a warm and moist south-southwest flow over the region while sinking air under the high pressure also leads to warming, and this combination is establishing the heat wave. In addition, high pressure typically leads to less cloud cover, which would allow for extra diurnal surface heating. With all that said, heat indices today are expected to range around 103-107F and thus a Heat Advisory is in place for only Miami-Dade today with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for multiple hours. General high temperatures for today are expected in the low to mid 90s. For Saturday, temperatures are expected to rise further due to reasons stated above into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up to 107-100F, so another Heat Advisory will be possible for tomorrow if trends continue and could spread to multiple counties. Overall, whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 The long term period will start off with one more day of hazardous heat as the hot and humid airmass remains over most of South FL on Sunday with south-southwest flow. Throughout the day, a frontal boundary associated with a mid-level trough over the Southeast US will gradually push across Central FL and into our area. Along and ahead of this frontal boundary there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. With the front not reaching our area until later in the day, high temperatures will be able to reach the low to mid 90s, with heat index values in the triple digits and potentially reaching advisory levels. As the front continues to slowly pass through the region on Monday, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible to start the new week. With a cooler airmass and more cloud coverage, high temperatures will be lower than on Sunday, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index values near 100. After the front clears the area Monday night, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through at least mid-week, providing relief from the recent stretch of heat with high temperatures likely in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, and low temperatures in the 70s. With a drier airmass in place, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the low side, but we could still see a few each afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through this 18Z TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible at the east coast terminals between 18 to 00Z but expecting this to be primarily an isolated threat. Winds are expected out of a W-SW direction today with the east coast shifting to the SE in the afternoon with an expected sea breeze. Tomorrow, winds will shift out of the S/SSE, but KAPF will eventually shift WSW with the gulf breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 94 80 93 / 0 30 10 40 West Kendall 77 97 78 95 / 0 20 10 40 Opa-Locka 79 96 80 94 / 0 30 10 50 Homestead 79 94 80 93 / 0 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 91 / 0 30 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 94 80 92 / 10 30 20 50 Pembroke Pines 80 97 80 95 / 0 30 10 50 West Palm Beach 76 94 77 92 / 10 40 20 60 Boca Raton 78 94 78 93 / 10 40 20 60 Naples 79 92 79 91 / 0 10 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ073-074-173-174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...Redman