751
FXUS64 KFWD 262022
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/
/Through Memorial Day/

Storms in Central Texas, which survived well beyond the
traditional cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet, have
finally exited our southeastern zones. Despite an approaching
frontal boundary, strongly veered flow and reduced boundary layer
moisture will mean we will finally have a storm-free afternoon.
Although rich moisture will remain across Central and East Texas,
the front will lose its forward momentum, and the region should
remain well capped. CAMs have backed off on convection in East
Texas, and the plurality of guidance keeps the radar scope empty.

In areas of reduced humidity and full sun, temperatures will soar,
aided by vigorous downsloping winds. Wind speeds will tend to
diminish near peak heating as the boundary approaches, enhancing
temperatures just ahead of it. DFW`s forecast high is 99F, which
would match the record high for May 26, set previously in 1980.
Rain-soaked areas may not get as warm, particularly those in the
humid sector where there will also be daytime CU. The Heat
Advisory will remain intact even though the reduced afternoon
temperatures within it may prevent a few locations from reaching
criteria.

As the boundary experiences frontolysis overnight, wind speeds
will diminish further. And with clear skies, patchy ground fog
will likely develop within the humid air across Central and East
Texas, particularly in those areas that have seen significant
rainfall this weekend. This process may be accompanied by low
clouds, both of which should effectively burn off Monday morning,
and a bright sunny day will follow. Moisture will return to North
Texas and the Big Country, but the highest heat index values will
be within the Heat Advisory area. The enhanced boundary layer
moisture and unseasonal easterly winds will reduce daytime
temperatures from the previous day, but it will still be
uncomfortably muggy Memorial Day with lighter winds. Those who are
unaccustomed to spending time outdoors in the heat should take
all necessary precautions: wear light, loose-fitting clothing and
drink plenty of water. In addition, the UV will be intense,
equivalent to a similar day in mid-July.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night into the weekend/

With a mid/upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. and
consolidating lows/troughs over the Great Lakes, North and Central
Texas will be on the southern fringe of a northwest flow pattern
by late Monday. Regional models and high-resolution CAMs show rain
chances may return as early as Monday evening as a cold front
continues to slowly move across the region. This will kick-off
the next multi-day period of unsettled weather across North and
Central Texas. Daily thunderstorm complexes are expected to
develop across the High Plains in response to a series of subtle
shortwaves/perturbations embedded along the northern periphery of
the larger scale ridge. Convection will spread eastward nightly,
bringing periodic rain and storm chances to the region through the
end of the week.

The pattern will become increasingly messy as the week wears on
as mesoscale features evolve. This lowered predictability has
resulted in some broad-brushing of PoPs, especially mid/late
week. The main change with this forecast update will be the
introduction of slight chance (20% of less) PoPs after 00Z Tuesday
(7 PM Monday) generally near and west of the I-35 corridor. As
the backdoor front temporarily stalls over the region late Monday,
the moist/unstable and briefly uncapped airmass south of the
front will be primed for storm development with the potential for
severe weather given the 50 kts of available effective shear. A
strengthening low level jet during the evening will also enhance
moisture advection and isentropic ascent through the overnight
period. If storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible.

By Thursday into Friday, the front should lift back northward as
a warm front, repositioning the warm/moist airmass more directly
overhead and fueling thunderstorm development through the end of
the week and into the weekend. With PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2
inches at times, periods of locally heavy rainfall are likely. Due
to lingering moist soils, localized flooding issues may also
emerge, especially wherever higher convective rain rates occur.
Temperatures will be fairly steady throughout the week though
tempered slightly by the expected cloud cover and precipitation.
Highs will generally be in the 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Wind shifts, but otherwise VFR with no significant concerns.
Potential for BR and IFR ceilings Monday morning at Waco.

Breezy southwesterly winds will gradually subside as a weak
frontal boundary approaches. Veering wind to the west and
eventually northwest will occur late in the day across D10. Light
northwest winds will veer further overnight to the northeast,
eventually becoming easterly by midday Monday. While a shift to
north flow will likely be required late this afternoon, Monday`s
winds should be light enough to allow for either flow
configuration. (The boundary is unlikely to make significant
changes to the wind direction in Central Texas.)

After nearly daily storm chances the past several days, no thunder
impacts are expected until Monday evening at the earliest (which
is currently beyond the scope of the TAFs). Clear skies will
prevail across D10 with cirrus arriving late Monday. Daytime CU
will occur at Waco. Waco may also experience a brief period of
ground fog and/or IFR ceilings Monday morning, but both should
remain south/east of the Metroplex (though they may encroach on
D10).

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  95  73  89  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
Waco                71  95  73  89  69 /   0   5  10  40  60
Paris               67  92  67  85  66 /   5   5  10  30  50
Denton              67  93  69  88  67 /   0   0  20  40  60
McKinney            68  92  70  87  68 /   0   0  20  40  60
Dallas              72  95  73  90  69 /   0   5  20  40  60
Terrell             71  92  70  88  68 /   0   5  20  40  50
Corsicana           74  94  74  91  70 /   0   5  10  40  50
Temple              72  96  73  90  68 /   0   5  20  40  50
Mineral Wells       67  94  70  89  67 /   0   0  20  50  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162-
174-175.

&&

$$