Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 241735
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN LIGHTNING IN THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DECIDED TO EXCLUDE AND
MONITOR FOR NEEDED UPDATES. EXPECTING THIS BATCH TO EXIT THE
METROPLEX AROUND 22Z WITH LITTLE OR NONE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST MONDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z. THIS SYSTEM AGAIN WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND COULD PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO MVFR VIS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COULD GO VFR BEFORE 00Z. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO ALL
SITES TONIGHT BY 06Z WITH A LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
08-09Z. NO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE MVFR TO IFR VIS...AND MAYBE
IFR CIGS AS WELL...DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/S CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

75

&&

.UPDATE...
LARGE SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF...ALMOST 200 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TOO
HEAVY. THIS FINAL WAVE OF FORCING IS WHAT HAS CAUSED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TODAY/S POPS HAVE BEEN REWORKED TO SHOW THE LATEST AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE 6-12 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CLOUDY
AND RAINY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  68  84  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
WACO, TX              78  69  80  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             74  67  82  65  82 /  90  40  80  70  20
DENTON, TX            76  66  84  66  84 /  70  20  60  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  67  84  66  83 /  70  30  70  50  20
DALLAS, TX            76  68  85  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
TERRELL, TX           76  69  82  67  84 /  70  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  70  83  67  84 /  50  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  70  20  60  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.