Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 292039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
339 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An outflow boundary extended from near McKinney to just north of
Granbury to Cisco at 3 pm. The western part of the boundary,
mainly west of I-35W, has been a focus for thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
thunderstorms were occurring southeast of a Comanche to Hillsboro
to Athens line. Expect some of this activity to continue into the
evening hours. Little or no activity is expected this evening
north of the I-20 corridor. Another thunderstorm complex is
expected to develop across Kansas and Oklahoma tonight, and some
of this activity may brush the Red River counties late tonight
into Saturday. Even if the complex itself does not manage to make
it into the forecast area, an outflow boundary may serve a focus
for new development Saturday. Thus have kept 20 to 30 percent POPS
for the 06-12z period along and north of a Bowie to McKinney to
Emory line. Have also kept 20 to 30 percent POPs Saturday along
and northeast of Gainesville to Canton line.

For much of the work week, we have been sandwiched between two
upper level ridges - one just to the west of the Four Corners area
and another to the east over the southeastern United States. An
upper level ridge will build over region Sunday through the middle
part of next week. This will result in rain-free weather with high
temperatures in the upper 90s to 103 degrees across much of the
area.

The ECMWF and to a lesser degree the GFS, indicate that an upper
low will move northwestward from the Yucatan peninsula into Deep
South Texas and northern Mexico by next weekend. This system may
bring some low rain chances across parts of Central Texas next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns: shower and thunder potential at the TAF sites this
afternoon. Outflow boundary causing wind shifts in the DFW
Metroplex.

An outflow boundary from overnight convection in Oklahoma is
slowly moving south through the Metroplex, but appears to be in
the process of stalling and possibly diminishing across the
Metroplex. With still some little movement to the south, this
boundary may actually stall south of the Metroplex but is not
expected to reach KACT. Behind the boundary, winds are west and
northwest at speeds less than 10 kts but this is causing some
runway shifts at area airports. Latest thinking is that south
winds will return by 20Z as the boundary loses its identity
somewhere within or just south of the Metroplex. Southeast to
southwest winds at speeds less than 10 kts will continue through
the valid TAF period. KACT will maintain south winds through the
valid TAF period. However, for all the TAF airports, outflow winds
from any showers or storms may cause erratic wind shifts.

With the outflow boundary stalling across or near the Metroplex,
it may become a focus for afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Will include VCTS from 21-01Z for this potential
and amend if needed earlier and/or amend to remove if the
convection ends up far enough south. For KACT, scattered shower
activity is expected through the afternoon hours but an isolated
thunderstorm could impact the airport. Have opted to carry VCSH
through 30/00Z.

Convective chances beyond this afternoon are minimal but still
bear watching as additional outflow boundaries from storms in
Oklahoma could impact North Texas airports on Saturday. No
convection is mentioned in the TAF for Saturday due to low
confidence in any one solution but will be watching convection
across Oklahoma tonight and Saturday morning.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  79  99  80 /  20  10   5   5   5
Waco                76  98  77 100  77 /  20   5   5   5   5
Paris               75  95  76  97  76 /  40  30  10  10   5
Denton              76  97  76  98  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
McKinney            76  96  76  98  77 /  20  20   5   5   5
Dallas              79  98  79  99  80 /  20  10   5   5   5
Terrell             76  97  77  98  77 /  20  20   5   5   5
Corsicana           77  97  77  97  77 /  20  10   5  10   5
Temple              75  97  75  98  75 /  20   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       73  98  75  98  75 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.