Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180528 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1128 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.AVIATION...
An upper level low over southeastern Oklahoma at 05z, will
continue to move east northeast. Meanwhile upper level ridging in
the wake of the departing upper level low will leave the region
dry except for some possible patchy drizzle along the Red River
and to the east of I-35/I-35E between 10z and 15z. A southerly low
level jet has developed this evening which is bringing some MVFR
stratus north northwestward. Some IFR ceilings will be possible in
the Waco area toward and shortly after daybreak (09z-14z). Expect
VFR conditions to return 16-17z. South to southeast winds 10 to
15 knots will prevail through the TAF forecast period.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
The inherited forecast remains in good shape with only a few
minor changes necessary.

Afternoon clouds have continued to clear eastward as dry air
wraps around the back side of a mid/upper level low. Cloud cover
will fill back in; however, the strengthening low level wind
field should induce isentropic ascent along the 295/300K theta
surfaces. The increasing low level moisture/weak ascent will also
likely result in some patchy drizzle, especially for areas along
and northeast of a Jacksboro to Denton to Athens to Rockdale line.
Overnight low temps across the area look to be on track, but I
did nudge them up by a degree or two across far northwestern zones
where a ribbon of low level moisture continues to lift towards
the west and northwest.

The rest of the forecast remains unchanged and updated products
have been transmitted.

24-Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Afternoon satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover mainly
across east Texas into Louisiana associated with a shortwave
trough moving through the Southern Plains. There are a few high
based cumulus clouds noted over the last hour across North Texas.
These are associated with some very shallow moisture in the
presence of forcing for ascent. It appears the moisture will be
too sparse for any high based convection to develop through the
remainder of the afternoon...although some virga is likely to be
seen.

Tonight will feature some low/mid level drying as the main
shortwave moves to the east of the area...which should lead to
mostly clear skies across the southwestern part of the CWA.
Our eastern and northern counties will likely remain cloudy later
tonight into early Saturday as southerly winds pull in some Gulf
moisture on the east side of a developing surface low. This low is
expected to be near Wichita Falls early Saturday morning. Outside
of some patchy drizzle in our northeast counties late tonight and
early Saturday...skies should remain precipitation free during
this time. The southerly flow will keep temperatures warm tonight
with lows only falling into the mid 50s. Areas to the southeast
where cloud cover is minimal will fall into the mid 40s.

A much stronger upper disturbance will be digging into northwest
Mexico late tomorrow. This will be the system that will bring rain
and thunderstorm chances to North Texas Sunday into Monday. Prior
to this system arriving...brief shortwave ridging will pass
overhead during the day tomorrow. This should result in partly
cloudy skies with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 70s
across most of the region tomorrow. Temperatures may linger in the
60s across the northeast counties where more extensive cloud cover
persists.

As we head into Sunday...stronger forcing for ascent will
overspread much of the Southern Plains ahead of the strong upper
low. Deep southerly flow will become established by midday and
allow a little more expansive warm sector to become developed.
This warm sector is likely to spread north through the afternoon
hours. A dryline is expected to move east through midday and will
likely be near our western counties by early afternoon. With the
approach of the upper trough...expect a rather stout capping
inversion to lift and scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop by afternoon. Latest guidance suggests that the atmosphere
will become moderately unstable with mixed layer CAPE around
1200 j/kg along with 50 kt of deep layer shear. The shear profile
is nearly unidirectional although some localized backing of the
low level flow will be possible during the mid afternoon hours
near the effective warm front. Steep lapse rates and modest low
level flow will primarily support a hail and damaging wind threat
although an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. The severe
threat will persist into the evening hours before loss of heating
erodes surface based instability.

Later Sunday night...the convective area should become more
organized into a linear structure and will likely transition into
more of a heavy rainfall threat with deep moist southerly flow
feeding into the system. The overall line should remain
progressive to the east...although training echoes within the line
could produce some localized heavy rainfall amounts. At this
time...we think the heaviest rainfall will occur east of I-35 late
Sunday night into early Monday. Precipitation should end from west
to east early on Monday.

The remainder of the forecast will be dry as ridging builds in
behind the main system. Another fast moving system will swing
through the Plains late week...although moisture appears to be too
limited for precipitation at this time.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  76  57  76  61 /   5   5   5  50  80
Waco                55  81  58  76  59 /   5   0  10  50  80
Paris               52  68  53  76  60 /  10  10   0  10  80
Denton              53  72  54  74  58 /   5   5   0  50  80
McKinney            54  71  54  76  60 /   5  10   0  30  80
Dallas              56  76  58  76  61 /   5   5   5  40  80
Terrell             54  74  57  78  61 /  10   5   5  30  80
Corsicana           56  77  59  79  61 /  10   5   5  40  80
Temple              54  81  59  75  59 /   5   0  10  50  80
Mineral Wells       51  77  53  74  56 /   0   0   5  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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