Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 012327
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ALONG
AN OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF
COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DFW AREA...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE
FROM A MID AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO THE SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WE LOSE SURFACE
HEATING.

FOR THIS TAF SET...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SURFACE WINDS A TAD
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP THE TEMPO MVFR CIG GROUP AT KACT.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE LIFT AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
HAVE MADE IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND THIS SHOULD BE
THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL REMOVED FROM THE
REGION AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH MAY
DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REALLY
DOES NOT OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FRONT THAT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING ABOUT SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  76  95  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              74  92  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  92  71  94  72 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  95  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  73  94  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  94  77  95  78 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           73  92  72  94  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  92  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  93  71  95  72 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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