Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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327
FXUS64 KFWD 172143
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...
The low-level troughing in the lee of the Rockies is near its
maximum intensity. It will soon dislodge and surge south as a cold
front tonight. This will limit the extent that the surface layer
decouples, maintaining breezy conditions. Dry westerly flow at
850mb will keep a shallow cap in place. Beneath the inversion, a
nocturnal jet may approach 50kts at 2-3kft AGL. As this intense
moisture flux is squeezed within this thin layer, a stratus deck
will re-establish itself. It still appears that the westerly
component within the cloud-bearing layer will keep the stratus
confined to Central and East Texas, keeping the northwestern half
of the CWA (including Dallas/Fort Worth and Sherman/Denison) free
of low clouds. In our southeastern zones, where the layer may
become supersaturated, there could be some spits of rain, but the
layer should be too thin to support showers with measurable
rainfall.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Friday/

A strong cold front will sweep across the region on Saturday
bringing strong north winds and dropping temperatures to the
region. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all but our far south
and southeast counties. The Wind Advisory starts at 7 am for all
included counties in North and Central Texas, but the front likely
won`t reach the southern portions of the Advisory until after
midday. Breezy southwest winds will occur across Central Texas
ahead of the front, but the strongest winds are not expected
until the front arrives in the afternoon. In the Advisory area,
sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible. Outside the Advisory, winds will still be strong but
slightly below criteria. Wind speeds will diminish Saturday
evening and Sunday night as the surface high slides across the
region.

Falling temperatures are expected behind the front on Saturday,
but locations from Cameron to Hearne to Centerville may warm to
near 80 degrees before the front arrives around mid-afternoon.
Ahead of the front, some light rain or sprinkles may also occur in
the morning hours along and southeast of a Cameron to Athens
line. With the strong winds behind the front, apparent
temperatures will feel slightly lower than the actual temperature.
With clearing skies and light winds Saturday night, overnight
lows will drop into the 30s and lower 40s with some locations near
freezing in our northwest and western counties. Sunday will be a
chilly day with highs in the lower to mid 60s, and then overnight
lows will fall into the 30s and lower 40s again Sunday night.

Temperatures will experience a slow warm up Monday and Tuesday,
but then another front arrives Tuesday night. Moisture return
looks meager ahead of the Tuesday night front, but have kept a
slight chance for rain in Central Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Temperatures will once again slowly rebound before another front
next weekend. Overall, temperatures are expected to remain near
and slightly below normal for this time of year.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/
/18Z TAFs/

A jet streak emerging from the Rockies has induced lee troughing,
veering the low-level winds across Texas. Dry advection at 850mb
thinned the cloud layer this morning, hastening its erosion. This
has lowered the lingering inversion that will keep the boundary
layer moisture capped this afternoon, but it will be sufficiently
mixed to preclude any ceilings. Some of the momentum near the top
of the boundary layer (30-40kts) will reach the surface, with
occasional gusts approaching or exceeding 30kts.

The surface layer is unlikely to decouple tonight as a cold front
approaches. A dryline will remain well west, but the winds will
significantly veer in advance of the frontal passage. Strong
southwesterly winds of 40-50kts may fall below FL020, which could
require LLWS. The westerly component should keep a stratus surge
east of the Metroplex, but Waco will likely see a prolonged period
of MVFR ceilings that will continue through the frontal passage.
The front will arrive in the Metroplex mid-morning Saturday,
reaching Waco before midday.

Postfrontal winds may reach AWW criteria. Initially, the wind
direction will favor 31L/R, but the direction will steadily veer
Saturday afternoon, reducing the crosswind component on DFW`s
north-south runways. Speeds will diminish considerably before
sunset.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  68  41  61  40 /   5  10   0   0   0
Waco                64  72  37  62  37 /   5  10   0   0   0
Paris               62  68  34  60  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
Denton              60  65  34  61  38 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            61  67  36  60  37 /   5  10   0   0   0
Dallas              64  70  42  61  40 /   5  10   0   0   0
Terrell             64  71  38  62  36 /   5  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           64  72  41  61  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
Temple              63  74  39  63  39 /  10  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       57  65  34  61  34 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM CST Saturday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>161.

&&

$$

82/25



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