Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017


Not much change in the forecast other than lowering the high
temperature in a few spots to the northeast and to the east.
Current observations show temperatures running only 1-2 degrees
warmer than yesterday and given the observed high temperatures
(mid 90s) yesterday, the previous forecast seemed too aggressive.
The other main change to the previous forecast was to lower the
dewpoints. They are currently lower than yesterday (2-6 degrees),
making the heat index values to be mostly in the 90s. Despite the
current trend in the dewpoints, this afternoon heat indices are
expected to reach the 100-109 range due to the near triple digit



.AVIATION... /Issued 703 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period at all TAF
sites with scattered high clouds and diurnally-driven cumulus
developing this afternoon. A south-southwesterly breeze around
10-14 kts will prevail today, and an occasional gust to 20 kts can
be expected. Convection may develop this afternoon, but is
expected to remain north of the Red River. Some additional
showers/storms may develop towards daybreak on Friday, and while
these may sink just south of the border, they are not expected to
make it to the Metroplex sites.

For the extended DFW TAF: surface winds will begin to respond to
the approach of a cold front on Friday morning, and should
correspondingly veer around to the west. The actual northeast
wind shift (and any convective chances) associated with the front
should wait until Friday afternoon or early in the evening, just
outside the current TAF window.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
/Today and Tonight.../

Regional surface analysis early this morning places a cold front
across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and on into southeastern
Kansas, where temperatures have fallen into the middle and upper
70s. Ahead of this front, showers and occasional storms are
ongoing over northern portions of Oklahoma within a zone of
enhanced isentropic ascent (courtesy of a 30-35 kt low-level jet)
centered around the 310 K theta surface. With any warm advection
of note forecast to remain well north of the Red River this
morning, the only effects we should see will be from some
additional high-level cloud cover this morning and afternoon.

The combination of 23-24 C air at 850 mb and an increasing
southwesterly component to the flow could support high
temperatures as high as 103 or 104 today based on a local study,
but I`ve tempered these just a bit given the expectation of
additional cirrus being blown off of convection to our northeast
later today. Somewhat drier air should mix its way down to the
surface this afternoon, resulting in dewpoints running a hair lower
than we`ve seen lately. Still, the combination of triple digit
temperatures and upper 60s/near 70 dewpoints will result in heat
index values in the 105-110 degree range across the eastern 2/3rds
of the CWA today, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Late this afternoon and evening, we`ll need to keep an eye on
convective trends across Oklahoma. At this time, it appears any
activity should remain confined to north of the Red River through
the evening hours. Overnight, however, strong isentropic upglide
will get going at the nose of a strengthening low-level jet, and
this may be sufficient to spark off some showers and isolated
storms across our northern-most tier of counties.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/
/Friday through Wednesday/

A cold front is expected to be along or just north of the Red
River at daybreak Friday. This front is expected to slowly move
south during the day and extend south of the I-20 corridor before
sunset. With the better lift remaining to our north, most of the
showers and thunderstorms will be across Oklahoma, with low
chances across that part of North Texas north of Graham to Emory
line. There is a question of how much cloud cover we will get from
the thunderstorms to our north which makes the temperature
forecast tricky. Highs should range from the mid 90s along the Red
River to 103 degrees across Central Texas. This leads to the
question of what to do with the Heat Advisory. With cooler
temperatures across the northern part of the current Advisory
area, will just extend the Heat Advisory through 8 PM Friday for
areas along and southeast of a Killeen to Mineral Wells to Denton
to Sulphur Springs line. This means that we are not extending the
Heat Advisory beyond 8 PM today for Montague, Cooke, Grayson,
Fannin, Lamar, Wise, and Delta Counties. The rest of the current
Heat Advisory is being extended until 8 PM Friday where heat
index values of 105 to 110 degrees are expected.

The front should move through Central Texas Saturday morning.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be "cooler" than we have seen
during the last few days across most of the forecast area, with
lower 90s northeast to around 100 degrees across parts of Central
Texas. Heat Index values may reach 105 degrees across parts of
Central Texas Saturday.

Drier air will work its way in from the northeast late Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. There will be low chances of showers
and thunderstorms southwest of a Gainesville to Canton line.
Saturday night and Sunday.

With the upper level ridge remaining over the western United
States and troughing to our east, we will be in northwesterly to
northerly flow aloft for much of next week. This pattern will
result in chances of showers and thunderstorms and slightly below
seasonal normal temperatures.



Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  81 100  77  96 /   5  10  10  30  30
Waco               102  78 102  77  99 /   5   0   5  20  30
Paris               96  78  95  75  92 /  10  20  20  30  20
Denton             100  79  99  77  96 /   5  10  10  30  30
McKinney            98  79  98  76  94 /  10  10  10  30  30
Dallas             100  81 100  78  96 /   5  10  10  30  30
Terrell             97  77  99  76  95 /   5  10  10  30  30
Corsicana           98  77 100  77  96 /   5   5  10  20  30
Temple             100  76 103  77 100 /   5   0   5  10  20
Mineral Wells      101  76 100  76  97 /   5  10  10  30  30


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ103>105-107-117>123-

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102-106.


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