160
FXUS64 KTSA 241547
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1047 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Isolated to scattered storms continue across portions of
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. This
activity is expected to exit the region over the next couple of
hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop later this
afternoon as a cold front that currently extends from a Newkirk-
Stillwater-Spencer line in Oklahoma spreads to the southeast in
an increasingly unstable airmass. Development is most likely across
Southeast Oklahoma as we move into the late afternoon hours. The
vertical wind profile will be supportive of splitting cells and
very large hail especially with the left moving storms. Damaging
winds can also be expected with a limited threat of tornadoes.

Have adjusted the forecast for today to better reflect current
trends in observations and latest short-term model guidance.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Any ongoing storms will shift south and east of the area through
the evening hours as the front slowly sags southeastward and
eventually stalls/washes out near the Red River. Attention will
then turn to Saturday for the next chance at seeing impactful
severe weather across the region. A neutrally to negatively tilted
shortwave trough will eject out of the Central Rockies and across
the Central Plains by Saturday evening. At the surface, a rapidly
deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop over southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas and track east northeastward through the
evening hours with a dryline extending southward through
western/central Oklahoma. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the
deepening surface low will allow for rapid moisture return across
much of eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday and set up a very
unstable airmass ahead of the dryline by late Saturday afternoon.
An expanding, modestly warm Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) should
suppress convective initiation along the dryline for much of the
day. However, as the mid level wave arrives and height falls
overspread the tightening dryline, at least widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected across central Oklahoma,
with discrete supercells the likely storm mode. These storms would
spread into eastern Oklahoma by mid evening, with all hazards
possible, particularly very large hail and tornadoes. IT is
likely not everyone will see a storm and there might only be a
few storms across the region, but whatever storms do form will
most certainly be severe. Continue to monitor the forecast for
updates, especially with this being a holiday weekend and lots of
activities going on.

Some showers ad storms could linger into early Sunday morning
across western Arkansas, but should move out fairly quickly. The
pattern will calm some for the late weekend and early next week,
as mid level ridging builds into the area. Mainly hot and dry
weather is expected for the remainder of the long holiday weekend,
with temperatures in the 80s to near 90. Good agreement remains
in the long range on the mid level ridge expanding into the
Intermountain West by mid week and northwest flow aloft developing
over the Plains. Thunderstorm chances will return with this
pattern in the form of nocturnal MCS`s moving off the High Plains
and parts of eastern Oklahoma. Timing and placement of where each
MCS will set up is hard to predict at this range and will be
dependent on previous days activity in a lot of cases. But, look
for nightly rain chances to return to the forecast from mid week
on next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024
A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across
northeast Oklahoma this morning as undular bore approaches from
the northwest, ahead of main frontal boundary, with a brief period
of lower MVFR ceilings. Additional and potentially stronger
storms are expected this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as frontal boundary slowly moves through the
area. Brief IFR conditions will be likely in the stronger storms
before activity shifts east this evening. Also some potential
for a few lower clouds to develop behind front across portions
of the area tonight with some light fog at NW AR TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  59  88  73 /  20  10  10  40
FSM   86  68  89  74 /  60  60  10  30
MLC   87  66  88  74 /  60  50   0  20
BVO   82  53  87  69 /  10  10  10  50
FYV   83  61  87  70 /  50  60  10  50
BYV   84  61  86  69 /  60  50  10  50
MKO   84  61  87  73 /  40  40  10  30
MIO   81  56  86  69 /  40  10  10  60
F10   84  60  87  73 /  30  10  10  30
HHW   87  67  86  72 /  60  40   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12