014
FXUS63 KOAX 101721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Powerful northwesterly winds continue through the morning
  before tapering through the remainder of Wednesday.

- Light, mixed-precipitation chances (20-30%) Wednesday night
  into Thursday, followed by a return of colder temperatures
  for the weekend.

- Another round of light snow is possible (20-40% chance) Friday
  night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

We find ourselves in the heart of the cold air advection this
morning and wind observations have fallen just shy of
expectations. Most gusts have fallen between 50 and 58 mph
(advisory criteria) though KTQE, KHNR, KSUX have all peaked
above 60 mph. Will let the advisories and warnings - currently
set to expire at 8am - ride for now. Winds will slowly relax
over the course of the day as the shortwave and strongest cold
air advection continue southeast. Wind speeds will be close to
normal by this evening.

AM lows won`t be much cooler than forecast highs as CAA
continues into the evening... especially over western Iowa. High
temps will range from mid-40s to the southwest to upper 20s in
the northeast. But already by this evening, the surface high
pressure will slide far enough east to allow return flow at the
surface. Warm air advection is expected just above the surface
which explains the 20-30% PoPs this evening along the SD border.
Temps will be cold enough to keep the precip falling as light
snow until Thursday morning.

.THURSDAY...

Current guidance suggests p-type uncertainly early Thursday
morning with a warm nose developing above the surface and
surface temps remaining sub-freezing. Model soundings would
produce some freezing rain (35% PoPs) in the Sioux City area
with better chances (>70%) in southern South Dakota. QPF is low,
but freezing rain doesn`t need much ice to produce impacts. As
the ridge continues to inch east and WAA continues, the
temperature gradient across the area tightens further. There may
be a 20 degree range between the warm SW corner of the CWA and
its NE corner. Precip chances move east of the area on Thursday
evening.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

Behind the exiting system, cooler air builds in on Friday. Highs
near freezing will fall shy of seasonal norms. Even colder
temps are expected on Saturday and Sunday as an arctic airmass
settles into the upper Mississippi River valley. AM Lows are
forecast to slip into the single digits. Sunday morning wind
chills may dip as cold as -20 to -10 for areas east of a line
from Omaha to Norfolk.

Global deterministic models indicate weak ridging across the
area early next week lending itself to moderating temperatures.
C`mon global deterministic models!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

An MVFR (FL015-025) cloud deck in place over far eastern NE and
western IA is expected to shift east of KOMA by 21-22z, with
prevailing VFR conditions thereafter. Otherwise, expect
mid/high-level cloudiness to increase areawide tonight into
Thursday morning with a 15-20% chance of slight snow or
flurries. North-northwest winds will continue to diminish this
afternoon into evening before becoming light southeast overnight
into Thursday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead