204
FXUS63 KOAX 060855
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
355 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 50s as
  showers continue on-and-off through this evening.

- Temperatures gradually trend warmer through the week with
  highs back in the 80s by this weekend.

- A weak system could bring a few isolated showers to the area
  on Thursday (15-20% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The front this morning has stalled across the far southeastern
portion of our area, draped from Marysville, KS to Clarinda, IA.
This leaves us with cooler air in place across the region.
Showers and thunderstorms continue along and south of I-80 as
the low-level jet has enhanced elevated instability north of
the stalled frontal boundary. This elevated instability will
diminish as mixing occurs and the low-level jet weakens after
daybreak leading to a decrease in thunder with the shower
activity.

Meanwhile, we`re watching another shortwave traverse across
western Nebraska, which will bring an increase in shower
activity across our area later this morning, this time primarily
along and north of I-80. As the low-level jet weakens after
daybreak, we`ll see elevated instability diminish, with little-
to-no instability forecast through the shower activity later
this morning into this afternoon. If we do see a few rumbles of
thunder, they would probably be with any activity south closer
to the stationary front early this afternoon. In any case, not
expecting anything significant to come of shower or storm
activity today, with rain coming to an end around 7-10 PM this
evening.

Skies will be clearing overnight tonight as the stationary front
finally gets a move-on and shifts off to the southeast. With
winds becoming light, I wouldn`t be shocked if we saw a
significant threat for fog developing Tuesday morning with
all the lingering low-level moisture. Models aren`t really doing
more than hinting at it at this time, but I expect this will be
a concern.

The surface high will be shifting across the area on Tuesday
keeping skies mostly clear with temperatures staying on the
cooler side of normal. Highs on Tuesday will only get up into
the mid-to-upper 60s despite mostly clear skies. Tuesday night
into Wednesday we see winds shift back to southerly on the back
side of the High while cool, dry northwesterly flow aloft
will keep us from warming up too much more than a couple
degrees.

Towards the latter-half of the week, we see a ridge build up
over the Rockies and expand eastward into the Great Plains
region. A weak shortwave traverses over the top of the ridge on
Thursday, ramping up the low-level jet over eastern Nebraska.
This will bring warmer air back into the region warming highs
back into the 70s Thursday afternoon. Significant dry air gets
entrained into the low-level jet from New Mexico and northwest
Texas, limiting shower and storm potential as the system moves
through, but more moisture is able to get ingested as the system
moves eastward into Iowa, bringing better chances for showers
and storms across our far eastern counties Thursday night into
early Friday.

Despite the brief hic-up in the pattern, the ridge only
continues to amplify across the region Friday into the weekend
which will lead to a warming trend with highs back in the upper
70s for Friday and 80s forecast for Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Additional thunderstorm development has occurred across
Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa behind the cold front.
These thunderstorms may persist for the next few hours in the
vicinity of OMA and LNK. Brief visibility reductions and
lightning are the expected hazards with this activity. By
morning, lingering showery precipitation near OMA and LNK is
possible. Impacts from these showers is unlikely. VFR conditions
are expected to largely prevail, though a low chance of MVFR
ceilings near showers is possible. Winds will remain northerly
through the TAF period with a gradual drying trend by the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Chehak