Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 162331
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
631 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through the
  afternoon. Sunday will see similar wind/RH conditions, but
  will be a bit on the cold side so high to very high fire
  danger is expected.

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected heading into
  the weekend, with highs below seasonal normals Sunday.

- Pattern shift possible by late next week which could bring
  increasing chances for precipitation back to the forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Drier air has worked farther southeast into northwest Iowa, with
humidity at/below 25% and winds gusting to around 40 mph around
LRJ/SHL/SPW. With a couple of hours before substantial recovery
around/after sunset, have expanded the Red Flag Warning to cover
these areas through the same expiration time of 8 pm CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Breezy conditions continue to prevail across the region, with latest
observations showing scattered stratocu and temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s. Gusts throughout the early afternoon hours have ranged
between 30 to 40 MPH, with a few locations even gusting to 45 MPH.
Expect these gusts to persist at least through sunset, which
combined with falling dewpoints and relative humidities will lead to
critical to near critical fire weather concerns across the region.
Thus, we encourage you to refrain from any activities that may cause
a spark!

Gusty winds look to briefly subside tonight as lows fall into the
20s. Can`t rule out the possibility of seeing some light
snow/flurries along and north of Highway-14 after midnight, though
accumulations look to remain negligible at this time. Otherwise,
expect much of the same Sunday, in terms of dry weather and breezy
northwest winds, with gusts once again between 25 to 35 MPH. While
the risk for fire danger is there, expect highs in the 30s to lower
40s to help mitigate the overall threat.

Sfc high pressure builds across the region Sunday night, allowing
winds to shift and become more southwesterly by Monday afternoon.
Highs during this time look to remain in the 40s to lower 50s with
temperatures mostly in the 50s possible by Tuesday. As alluded to in
days past, upper level ridging is expected to prevail over the
western CONUS though mid-week as a pronounced upper level low
wobbles over southern California. Flow turns more zonal heading into
Thursday, with an upper level shortwave progged to eject eastward
across the Northern Plains. Still have a bit of time to narrow in on
the specifics, but most guidance generally agrees the next best
chance for seeing precipitation will be Thursday night into Friday.
Unsettled weather then looks to continue heading into the weekend as
a series of shortwaves take aim at the region. Otherwise, look for
high to remain in the 40s with overnight lows falling into the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

North-northwest winds gusting 25-35kt at the start of this
period will subside early this evening, but a secondary cool
push arrives after 17/06Z, bringing additional gusts to around
20kt through the latter half of tonight. Further increases are
expected after daybreak, with gusts 25-30kt more prevalent after
17/15Z Sunday.

The aforementioned cool push will be accompanied by some lower
stratus, generally 2500-3500ft AGL, as well as a potential for
scattered flurries from late this evening through about daybreak
Sunday. Confidence in a brief period of MVFR stratus impacting
at least KHON/KFSD TAF sites (and areas farther north/east) is
greater than confidence in flurries, thus have left the TAFs
free of precipitation for now. VFR conditions will become more
widespread again after 17/15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon until 8 pm this
evening. Northwest winds have been frequently gusting around 35
mph this afternoon, with isolated gusts as high 45 mph. Drier air
has been a little slower to arrive, but as of 4 pm we are still
seeing widespread humidity levels 23 to 33 percent in the warning
area, which should continue through sunset. While many areas may
not quite be reaching critical humidity levels (25%) yet, the
stronger gusts and very dry fuels will allow for rapid fire
spread.

Sunday will see strong winds and dry conditions again, but with
temperatures more in the 30s to lower 40s it will be a bit on the
colder side, so still elevated (high to very high) fire danger is
expected, but potential for fire starts may be lessened by the
cooler temps. Monday will see continued fire weather concerns, but
winds will be a little lighter so mainly high to very high. The
end of the week into next weekend continues to show potential for
precipitation.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-
     052>056-058>062-064>071.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-
     080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...SST/JH


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