000
FXUS63 KFSD 120537
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

LAST WARM AFTERNOON FOR A WHILE TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AND 90S TO THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED NE-SW THROUGH SIOUX FALLS CAUSING
A BRIEF SHIFT IN WINDS TO SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT.
HOWEVER...NEW SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAS TRIGGERED WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SW...AND PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE
BACKING WINDS FARTHER SOUTH.  HENCE...WINDS IN AND AROUND SIOUX
FALLS WILL LIKELY STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
STILL LIGHT.  AS A RESULT OF THESE CONTINUED LIGHT  WINDS...
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING OUT
IN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT ALREADY.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA.  CURRENTLY APPEARS BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT NOSE OF LLJ WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHICH MAKES
PRECIP FORECAST DIFFICULT INITIALLY. THINK THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-90
WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY STAY DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SOUTH OF
I-90 MORE DIFFICULT TO SAY. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING
BUT INCREASED INTO LIKELY CATEGORY AFTER 06Z AS A RESULT OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE NOSE OF
LLJ AND SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NEBRASKA. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT BULK OF PRECIP STAYS SOUTH OF MISSOURI RIVER SO HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND AROUND SIOUX CITY. POPS IN
SIOUX FALLS DO NOT INCREASE TO LIKELY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN THE RIVER AND I-90 IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BUST.
SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE LEFT LATE INTO THE EVENING TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AND WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS
AROUND 30-40 KT...COULD BE JUST ENOUGH STORM ORGANIZATION FOR SOME
SMALL OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AREAS WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT...EVERYONE WILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO START THE DAY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.  SHOWER THREAT IS THEN EXACERBATED BY COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS PLACE FRONT IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 18Z AND THEN PUSH IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY CLEARING THROUGH SIOUX FALLS SOMEWHERE AROUND
21Z. BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND A
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT STILL SOME CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH WARMEST TEMPS WEST WHERE SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKER
ALLOWING FOR MORE HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO AMPLIFY SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
GFS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION...BUT NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE JET. WHEREVER THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING FRONT AND JET ENTRANCE OCCURS WILL DEFINE THE LOW END
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDER...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
MORNING. OVERALL...HAVE SHIFTED THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND
LATER INTO THE DIURNAL CYCLE ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BE A SHORT
DURATION THREAT AT ANY AREAS SOUTH OF I 90. POSSIBLE THAT NORTH
EDGE OF BETTER DEVELOPMENT COULD BUMP UP THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS MAIN PV LOBE STARTS TO WRAP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOCATION OF LOWER TO MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK...BUT ENOUGH TO
MENTION THUNDER.

MAIN UPPER LOBE WRAPS THROUGH ON MONDAY AS LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN PV LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY... WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS PERHAPS HOLDING ON INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS WILL HAVE TO BE AWFULLY WRONG
ON THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE TO END UP WITH ENOUGH DEPTH TO MIXED
LAYER TO INVOLVE ANY SERIOUS ICE PROCESSES/CHARGE SEPARATION...SO
KEPT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FREE OF THUNDER. DID GO WITH A
DIURNALLY WEIGHTED ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT. AFTER TROUGH
AXIS DROPS THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT BY MID
TO LATER AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE ON WHAT SHOULD BE A
FORMIDABLE MIXING DAY...AND HAVE RAISED MOST AREAS 5-7 KNOTS OVER
INITIALIZATION...GIVING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY 20 TO 35 MPH.
FULL MIXING SUPPORTS ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND
THIS IGNORES THE COLDER ECMWF WHICH WOULD BE A FULL 2-4 DEGREES
COOLER. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING STRONG SIGNAL TO GO COOLER...
AND OPERATIONAL MOS ALSO SHOULD RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH NO
DISCERNABLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AS NORTHERN PLAINS STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER FROM THE COOLER EARLY WEEK AIRMASS. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...AT WHICH TIME SOME RIDGING WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY WILL START
VERY COOL...WITH SOME READINGS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE RECORDS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. A GRADUALLY MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...
WITH NORMAL PERHAPS IN SIGHT AFTER FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

06Z TAFS REFLECT THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE KSUX AND KFSD TAF SITES.
THE RAINFALL AT KSUX WILL BE HEAVY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERALL...THE LATERAL BAND OF WEST TO EAST EXTENDING CONVECTION
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. KHON IS PROBLEMATIC...
IN THAT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE STORMS AND RAINFALL
WILL MOVE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST HIRES
MODELS THAT KHON AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE
GLOBAL MODELS LIKE THE 00Z GFS ARE MUCH DRIER...LEAVING KHON DRY
FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE DAY SATURDAY. OF COURSE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS COULD EASILY BE MVFR WITH EVEN
SOME BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. BUT LOOKING FORWARD TO TONIGHT...IT LOOKS
DRY BUT WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MANY LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE
TAFS IN REFERENCE TO EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ