Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 281748
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Convection has developed just to the north of our CWA very early
this morning in association with theta e advection on the nose of a
low level jet. While there was some indication earlier that some of
this activity might affect parts of our east central SD/southwestern
MN zones, it now appears that these storms will continue to drift
off to the northeast away from our area. Otherwise, observations
indicating some localized fog in areas to the east of Interstate 29.
Expect this fog to remain in check as southeasterly winds become
more southerly into the morning hours, and eventually dissipate by
mid morning. The remainder of the day is looking fairly uneventful,
with a somewhat breezy afternoon in a tightening gradient with
surface troughing to our west and high pressure to our east. In a
warm air advection regime, look for temperatures to climb a good 8
to 10 degrees over yesterday, with highs in the mid 80s east of I-29
to around 90 through the James River Valley and south central SD.
Along with the warmer temperatures, humidity will increase a bit as
afternoon dew points climb to near 70 over the eastern two thirds of
the CWA.

Tonight continues to be benign, with light southerly winds and very
mild lows - in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be lightest east of
I-29 late tonight, and there is some indication that patchy fog
could develop once again over that area. However, the wind direction
will lean more to a southerly direction, as opposed to southeasterly
direction, so with low confidence did not include in forecast at
this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Only minor changes to the ongoing medium and extended range
forecasts. We`ll start out the week dealing with a flattened mid-lvl
ridge, weak surface troughing in the local area, and a series of
weak mid-lvl disturbances.  Monday afternoon may present an
opportunity for scattered pulse diurnal thunderstorms along a weak
convergence axis. This trend may continue into Tuesday as a weakness
in the flow moves through the mid-Missouri River valley. Morning
showers or thunderstorms associated with this wave will sink
southward through Tuesday morning, as high pressure enters the
Northern Plains. Have trended the second half of the day drier.

Mid-level ridging will amplify for the middle to end of the week.
With the ridge axis peaking west of the region, dry Canadian high
pressure will slide into the Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
keep the local area under the influence of cooler southeasterly
flow.

Flow aloft will flatten by the very end of the week and into next
weekend. This may allow moisture to slowly advect back into the
area, bringing a very low end PoP back to the region by Friday.
Slightly higher precipitation may be focused towards the end of
the weekend as a frontal boundary slides across the region.

Temperatures early in the week will climb above seasonal normals,
with a slight cooldown near normal for the middle of the week.
Trends continue to indicate above normal temperatures returning for
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast area.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...



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