Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 231641
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOWERED OUR CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES EAST OF I 29 FOR THE REST OF
TODAY FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE STARVED
BELOW 8000 FEET AGL WITH NO HOPE OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION.
THEREFORE NOT EVEN SURE AT THIS POINT IF A SPRINKLE WILL HAPPEN
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SNEAK BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME RESIDUAL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL SWING
THROUGH. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW RAINDROPS TO
FALL...WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING SOME SLICK
ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER PART
OF THE ATMOSPHERE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...SO NOT PLANNING ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MILD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES.
SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT TODAY AND WINDS OF ABOUT 10 MPH OR SO THROUGH
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONLY
PLANNING ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

ON SATURDAY MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH
THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE THROUGH OUR NORTH
AND EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. IN REFERENCE TO THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE...SEEING DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL
PROFILES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF OFFERING THE COLDER
SOLUTION...THE NAM THE WARMEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS MAKES
PRECIPITATION TYPE A BIT TRICKY...IN TERMS OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT STILL
GOING WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE NORTH/EAST...THOUGH
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SO EVEN IF
PRECIPITATION BECOMES PREDOMINATELY SNOW OVER THAT AREA NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MID 30S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO MILD MID 40S
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE CENTRAL CONUS LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE WARMEST DAY
STILL LOOKS TO MOST LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH
60 DEGREES THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. EXTENDED MODELS ALL
PULL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR FREEZING SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08


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