Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 210010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
710 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Pesky stratus slowly beginning to dissipate this afternoon, but has
put a damper on temperatures today in many areas.  Relatively quiet
weather continues in the short term portions of the forecast.

Tonight: Following guidance from the RAP/HRRR guidance, will
maintain this stratus deck into the evening hours, especially over
our eastern SD and MN counties. Stratus will finally slide east of
the area once an upper shortwave over eastern ND pushes towards
eastern MN and WI later tonight. With very light winds and clearing
skies, have lowered temperatures towards the MET guidance, with
subfreezing temperature possible.

Friday: Shortwave ridging will move through early Friday morning,
however as mid-level warm advection and an upper jet nose back into
the Northern Plains, increasing mid and upper clouds will be on the
increase through the day.  Temperatures however will warmer than
today, with middle 60s expected in central SD, with the upper 50s
further east towards Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Weak ridge builds into the region Friday night into Saturday morning
resulting in light winds and good radiative conditions.  Southerly
flow gradually builds from west to east throughout the day on
Saturday.  Cold front is expected to move through the region
Saturday night. Winds ahead and behind the front look to be
marginally brisk, keeping temperatures fairly mild Saturday night.
Have raised winds on Sunday much closer to Cons_MOS.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to unfold Monday night through
Wednesday as a series of upper level disturbances move through the
area in southwest flow aloft. With these series of disturbances,
could see showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures remain
relatively mild for this time of year with 925 hpa temps in the
upper single digits and teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Main concern remains a narrow band of low end VFR and MVFR
stratus across the I-29 corridor. This band will continue to
shrink and shift slightly east through around 06z. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.
Some mid and high clouds will rebuild during the daytime on
Friday. Light winds will also shift south southwest and increase
to 10 to 20 kt Friday afternoon.




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