Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 150341
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1041 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected heading into
  the weekend, with highs at or below seasonal normals Sunday.

- High to very high fire danger expected for Saturday and
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Light showers continue to linger across NW Iowa as sfc low pressure
slowly pivots eastward, with current observations showing breezy
N/NE winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s. As alluded to
in the previous discussion, dry air in combination with breezy winds
has resulted in the high to very high fire danger across much of our
area today - mainly along and east of I-29. Should see these
conditions continue through sunset, with light rain forecast to
gradually diminish during this time, allowing dry conditions and
lows on either side of freezing to prevail overnight.

Heading into Friday, expect sfc high pressure to build in from the
northwest as an upper level trough axis slides across the region -
thus, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. Currently have
highs in the low to mid 50s under clearing skies. In regard to
winds, will see direction shift from northerly to westerly by the
afternoon before turning more southwesterly by the evening as a
strong low pressure takes aim at the Great Lakes Region. Sfc cold
front will move in tandem with this feature and dive southeastward
across the region Friday night into Saturday, resulting in cooler
afternoon highs through the weekend. As such, expect temperatures in
the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday to fall into the mid 30s to
lower 40s by Sunday. Northwesterly winds also look to become quite
breezy after FROPA, with sustained speeds in the 20s and gusts
between 30 to 40 MPH. Similar to the previous forecast package,
latest Grassland Fire Danger advertises High to Very High fire
danger for much of our area, in addition to a couple counties in far
southeastern SD climbing into the Extreme Category. So, while RH may
be a limiting factor at this time, still strongly encourage you to
refrain from any activities that may cause a spark! Otherwise, look
for lows to dip from the 20s on Saturday night into the teens by
Sunday night.

Upper level ridging prevails over the western CONUS heading into the
new week as a pronounced upper level low wobbles over southern
California. Given that the region will be centered in northwest flow
aloft, expect to see dry conditions continue with temperatures
gradually rising back into the 50s to 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR ceilings are expected for
this TAF period mostly due to developing stratus. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, most of the lingering precipitation has
dissipated leaving just some lingering high clouds across portions
of northwestern IA and developing stratus to our northwest. As warm
air advection strengthens ahead of an incoming shortwave, low-
level stratus will funnel into the region by daybreak on Friday
leading to some MVFR ceilings in areas east of I-29.

However, most of the stratus should push out of the region by Friday
afternoon as the cold front swings through giving way to much
clearer conditions. Otherwise, northerly to northwesterly winds will
continue to gradually decrease overnight then become more westerly
during the day on Friday. Marginally breezy conditions will again be
possible by Friday afternoon with gusts between 15-25 mph mostly
north of I-90. Lastly, both KFSD & KSUX could experience some LLWS
towards the end of the TAF period as the LLJ strengthens.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Gumbs


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