Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220345
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail with south to
southwest winds BTWN 10 to 20 kts through the TAF period.  Another
round of isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the far
northwestern combined Panhandles, with the best chance at KDHT &
KGUY AFT 23/00Z. Confidence in coverage is low, therefore will not
mention in TAF at this time.

Bieda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Afternoon surface analysis has southwesterly winds in the northern
TX panhandle and OK panhandle becoming more southerly to the south.
Light southeasterly winds at KCAO and KENT are a very subtle
indication of the lee surface low in northeastern NM / Southeastern
CO. Some TCu are evident on Vis Sat along southern periphery of this
low where very marginal moisture convergence is occurring. A few
echo returns are showing up now in these areas as sites approach
their convective temperature. Moisture is limited with surface dew
points only in the high 40s to mid 50s except for from Goodwell OK to
KAMA and points east where some high 50s to low 60s reside.
Temperatures are approaching the century mark for most areas north
of I-40. Added slight pops to far western OK Panhandle and
northwestern TX Panhandle for possibility of a storm or two to
possibly move into these areas from the west. Storm are going to
struggle to overcome broad scale subsidence over the area along with
limited CAPE and almost no shear (very slow storm motion). Any storms
that do develop should stay below severe limits...however with
inverted-V type soundings brief strong gusty winds are possible.

A 598 decameter upper level high pressure system centered over
western Oklahoma is providing some upslope showers and thunderstorms
over central New Mexico. With light and variable winds aloft as seen
in the 12Z observation data for KAMA and KABQ, in-conjunction with
model data storm relative flow, these showers and thunderstorms will
slowly drift to the northeast. Some of the latest hi-res data does
show a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as we go into the
evening hours across the far northwestern Panhandles, but the chances
are slight.

As we go into the weekend, high pressure will continue to drive
diurnal convection over the New Mexico mountains and drift northeast
over our northwestern Panhandles. Chance of thunderstorms will
increase over these areas as we go through the weekend as the upper
level high pressure system will begin to compress. With good
established south to southwesterly flow, high temperatures over the
weekend will range from the upper 90s to lower triple digits.

Going into next week, latest 21/12Z model and probabilistic data
shows 500hPa - 200hPa mean flow shows quite a contrast across the
central U.S. as a divide between westerly to northwesterly flow
across the OK Panhandle and far northern TX panhandle to a more due
easterly flow across the rest of the TX Panhandle as the flow becomes
more zonal across the CONUS. As low pressure impulses move across a
stalled boundary across Kansas into early next week, this will
generate a chance of some thunderstorms, with the best chances across
our northern areas. Otherwise, under a more zonal pattern across the
central U.S., temperatures will cool off slightly into the mid 90s
across the region.

LFM/Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

98/18


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