Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 031030
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP UPPER
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DESPITE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG HAVE
PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO ERODE LATER THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY BUT ALSO EXPECT A
NICE WARM UP FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THIS WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS
RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY CAUSE PRECIPITATION PHASE TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. DECIDED
TO GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY
SATURATE INDICATING SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS
RAISED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
WILL BE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL. WENT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH FITS IN A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE LOWER DEPENDING ON IF AND HOW LONG
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PRECEDE THE SNOWFALL.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL ALSO
QUICKLY CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARM UP THURSDAY WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S AS OPPOSED TO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CAN PUSH A COUPLE OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  17  24  14  42 /  10  50  60  20   5
BEAVER OK                  51  16  23  11  43 /  10  40  70  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  14  21  10  44 /  10  40  60  10   5
BORGER TX                  57  16  23  16  40 /  10  50  60  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              60  15  25  13  42 /  10  50  60  20   5
CANYON TX                  60  21  26  14  42 /  10  50  60  20   5
CLARENDON TX               59  20  26  16  42 /  10  50  70  20   5
DALHART TX                 56  16  22   9  42 /  10  50  50  10   5
GUYMON OK                  54  16  24  12  46 /  10  40  60  10   5
HEREFORD TX                59  24  27  13  42 /  10  50  50  20   5
LIPSCOMB TX                55  18  26  12  43 /  10  40  70  20   5
PAMPA TX                   57  13  22  13  39 /  10  50  60  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                59  22  28  16  41 /  10  50  70  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              61  23  28  18  42 /  10  60  80  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05




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