Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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794
FXUS64 KAMA 152116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
316 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

UPDATE...
Temps are still holding near freezing for all but far west and far
south. Lowered temps to account using a blend or raw CAM output.
Extended potential for freezing to continue later into the day.
Based on this extended freezing rain advisory to 00z in the SE.
Converted ice storm warning to a winter storm warning to handle
change to sleet...snow and freezing rain mix overnight and extended
that through 12z. Converted all remaining areas from freezing rain
advisory to a winter weather advisory to handle multiple precip types
developing tonight and extended that until 12z as well. Included Deaf
Smith and Randall...although they are iffy for potential of near 1"
snowfall there...but further north and west will be main concern for
wrap around precip. More on this in the aftn package.

.DISCUSSION...
Over the next 24 hours, whatever precipitation type you can think of,
it will likely happen across the Panhandles. As aforementioned in
the update section of the AFD, winter weather headlines have been
updated to reflect the precipitation types to move across the
Panhandles region within the next 24 hours. Current observations shows
an upper level low centered over El Paso, moving northeast. Out
ahead of the main upper level low, PWAT anomalies of +3 S.D. for
January as indicated in the 12Z KAMA upper air data continues to show
an abundance of moisture in the area. A surge of moisture from the
Texas south plains is moving northward into the region. With
temperatures hovering near freezing at the surface with the upper
level system moving closer and colder temperatures aloft as a result,
convection associated with this mixed precipitation is likely and
some very small pea size hail with these heavier low topped storms
are possible. At the same time, freezing rain is still being reported
across the far northern TX Panhandle and OK Panhandles were some
areas have seen several tenths of an inch of ice accretion already.

Latest 15/12Z model and probabilistic data continue to show the main
surface low pressure system moving northeast across portions of
western Texas during the evening hours. The tricky part to this
forecast is determining where the center of surface low pressure
system will develop near the baroclinic zone south of the Panhandles
in-conjunction with the upper level vort max swinging northeast from
the base of the upper level trough. If the low pressure system passes
very close to the SE of our region, near Childress, warmer solutions
may continue with a wintry mix and freezing rain for south central
and eastern Panhandles with more snow and sleet for the north
central and northwestern Panhandles. If the low pressure system
tracks further to the east, more cold air will wrap behind the
system. Some of the model profiles and hi-res models suggest perhaps
a deformation band of snowfall to set up, especially across the
central and western Panhandles where several inches of snow could
fall. Best chances of accumulating snowfall will be across the north
central and northwestern TX Panhandle along with the central and
western Oklahoma Panhandle as these regions will be on the NW side of
the departing synoptic system where the best lower level and mid
level deformation may occur. As the upper level low moves near our
region, northerly winds may pack up which could exacerbate the
antecedent accreted ice conditions with winds gusting to near 20 kts
by Monday afternoon. Overall consensus shows an additional half inch
to three quarters of an inch of precipitation before the system
departs tomorrow morning. Low temperatures tonight will not drop off
too much from current values with values ranging from the upper 20s
ands lower 30s for the majority of the Panhandles to mid 30s in the
SE TX Panhandle.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then expected for Tuesday
through Friday. Medium range models suggest another upper level low
pressure system may impact the southern high plains on Saturday.
Model consensus is low at this time and will update as we get closer
to next weekend. High temperatures will be above average for the
majority of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                35  30  45  27  51 / 100  90  20  10   5
Beaver OK                  33  29  37  26  47 / 100 100  40  10   0
Boise City OK              33  28  38  25  48 / 100  90  50  10   5
Borger TX                  35  30  43  29  52 / 100  90  20  10   5
Boys Ranch TX              35  31  45  26  52 / 100  90  20  10   5
Canyon TX                  35  31  46  27  52 / 100  90  10  10   5
Clarendon TX               35  32  48  29  52 / 100 100  10  10   5
Dalhart TX                 34  29  41  26  50 / 100  90  30  10   5
Guymon OK                  33  30  38  26  49 / 100 100  50  10   0
Hereford TX                35  31  47  26  52 / 100  90  10  10   5
Lipscomb TX                33  31  40  27  49 / 100 100  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   35  30  42  27  51 / 100 100  20  10   5
Shamrock TX                34  32  46  29  52 / 100 100  10  10   0
Wellington TX              35  34  50  30  53 / 100 100  10  10   0

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 126 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR likely will continue through the TAF period with
potential for FZFG, SN, IP, and FZRA through 12z. Most sites will
change to FZFG and SN overnight. Improvement will occur around 18Z
when we may finally see MVFR conditions develop.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...Hansford...
     Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Sherman.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Texas.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

88/29



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