Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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987
FXUS64 KAMA 210928
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
428 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RAINY PATTERN WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
PANHANDLES LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. QUICK
CLIMATE NOTE: ALL CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOVE NORMAL ON RAIN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH BOTH AMARILLO AND BORGER 6 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FORMS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. DONT LET THIS LULL CATCH YOU OFF GUARD BECAUSE IT WILL
QUICKLY BREAK DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING US A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL STRETCH FROM TONIGHT INTO THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY. A LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MORE STRATIFORM WHICH SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP RATES LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND URBAN AREAS AS THE GROUND IS STILL FAIRLY
SATURATED.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL HERALD THE NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS WHICH PRESENTS A BETTER SCENARIO FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THE PARENT LOW WILL REACH ARIZONA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEND SEVERAL
VORT LOBES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
SAME TIME, AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PANHANDLES TO
GIVE STORMS THAT FORM THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FURTHER DETAILS PROVIDED IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

A PSUEDO-DRYLINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT TO 35KT. ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA FAIRLY
QUICKLY. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN OUR DRY DAY WILL BE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING MONDAY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING TUESDAY. THIS DRY SPELL WILL BE
VERY SHORT AS WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. A 35KT LOW LEVEL JET BRING 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 12C TO
14C INTO THE PANHANDLES, PWAT VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE
INITIATE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAIN
COULD EASILY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE CONSIDERING THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED. RIDGE 2 PRECIP DATA SHOWS THIS AREA HAS SEEN UPWARDS OF
8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS ESPECIALLY FROM CLARENDON TO
MCLEAN TO WELLINGTON. AS A RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  48  67  57  71 /  40  80  40  60  60
BEAVER OK                  66  48  67  57  71 /  10  80  50  40  60
BOISE CITY OK              58  46  70  54  72 /  40  70  30  40  30
BORGER TX                  64  50  68  59  72 /  30  80  50  50  50
BOYS RANCH TX              60  49  71  58  74 /  50  80  40  60  50
CANYON TX                  58  48  67  57  72 /  50  70  40  60  50
CLARENDON TX               61  49  66  58  70 /  30  80  50  50  70
DALHART TX                 59  46  70  54  73 /  50  70  30  50  50
GUYMON OK                  64  47  69  57  72 /  20  80  50  40  50
HEREFORD TX                58  47  68  57  73 /  60  70  40  70  40
LIPSCOMB TX                65  49  65  58  69 /  10  80  50  40  70
PAMPA TX                   62  47  64  56  69 /  20  80  50  50  60
SHAMROCK TX                64  51  65  59  69 /  20  80  50  50  70
WELLINGTON TX              65  53  67  61  71 /  20  80  50  50  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/14





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