Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 071343 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
843 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
THAT ANY INTENSE RAINFALL SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
AT KAMA THIS MORNING.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO EAST
TODAY.  NOT EXPECTING DIRECT IMPACT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND MOIST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TROF BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF OKC SW
TO NEAR MAF WITH NNE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SW FLOW
REMAINS ALOFT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE MOSTLY LIGHT ELEVATED
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HELP OF APPROACHING WEAK S/WV
AND UPR DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT POPS/QPF W/
THE NAM/WRF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS AND ECMWF. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY DUE TO PLACEMENT OF H7 TROUGH/WEAK LOW OVER
THE AREA. THE NAM/WRF SHOW THIS FEATURE MORE WEST AND NORTH (WHICH
KEEPS GOOD MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE) WHILE
ECMWF AND ESP GFS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE PANHANDLES
MOSTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FEATURE. CURRENT ANALYSIS (AND RADAR
TRENDS) SIDE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS AND THEREFORE BASED TODAY
FORECAST ON THESE MODELS WHICH SHOW LESS QPF AND QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPSTREAM S/WV.
GIVEN THIS...HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE SE
FOUR COUNTIES. THESE COS MAY REMAIN ON THE SE SIDE OF THE H7 LOW AND
THEREFORE HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY WASH OUT ON WED AS
THE SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SE CO. ADDITIONAL S/WVS WILL EJECT FROM LOW CENTER OVER CA AND
THESE WILL HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE WED. CURRENTLY
THERE IS NO SEVERE RISK NOTED IN SPC OUTLOOK...BUT AM A BIT CONCERNED
REGARDING SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE PROGGED ESP BU
THE NAM LATE WED. MAY AT LEAST MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN HWO. BETTER POPS WILL REMAIN IN WEST IN THE AFTN THEN WILL RANGE
FROM SLT CHC SE TO LIKELY NORTH FOR WED NIGHT WHEN BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

SW FLOW WILL REMAIN LOFT DUE THE SLOW MOVING LOW ACROSS THE WRN US.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEED OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DISTURBANCES
WILL HELP TRIGGER ROUNDS OF ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS NORTH INTO THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE
THEY BEGIN CLIMBING AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/88




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