Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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360
FXUS64 KAMA 250352 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1052 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Aviation...
For the 06Z TAFS, tstms over parts of ern NM and sern CO have not
made it very far into our fcst area and are generally restricted to
the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Have continued to omit mention of
this weather element in any of the terminal forecasts for the first
12 hours of this fcst. Surface winds will increase and become gusty
again by mid Saturday morning, then diminish after sunset. Another
round of showers and tstms is expected to develop late Saturday
afternoon and evening near the end of this fcst cycle. Did not
include tstms wtih this fcst since confidence is low as to which, if
any, TAF sites will be impacted. In addition, if storms form, they
would tend to do so near the edge of this 24 hour fcst period;
therefore, will defer this to later shifts for consideration.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 608 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS, tstms over parts of ern NM and sern CO may attempt
to make it into northwest sections of the OK and TX Panhandles later
this evening. If they do, coverage should be more isold. Therefore,
have opted not to mention this weather element in any of the terminal
forecasts for the first 12 hours of this fcst. Surface winds will
diminish after sunset, then increase and become gusty again by mid
Saturday morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop late Saturday afternoon near the end of this fcst
cycle. Did not include wtih this fcst since, if storms form, they
would tend to do so near the edge of this 24 hour fcst period and
will be deferred to later shifts for consideration.

Andrade

Prev Discussion... /Issued 348 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

Discussion...
Forecast remains largely unchanged. Weak mid- and upper-level flow is
forecast to continue.  Main forcing for thunderstorms will be
moderately strong flow around 850 mb.  Pops kept tonight for mainly
the northwest 2/3 of the forecast area.  Thunderstorms may move into
the far northwest sections from the higher terrain of New Mexico.
Visible satellite imagery reveals cumulus developing across southwest
Texas Panhandle near a weak surface trof.

Models in fair agreement with cold front moving into at least the
northwest half of the area Saturday evening.  Presence of this
boundary warrants higher pops during this period.

For Monday and Tuesday, weakness in mid-level height field is
forecast by many ensemble members to move north into Panhandles,
supporting higher pops across southern sections.

By Wednesday, developing northwest flow offers some hope of improving
dynamics and perhaps another frontal intrusion.  Chances for
thunderstorms continue through Friday.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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