Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180413 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1113 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH A SLIM CHANCE FOR A LITTLE BR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT
KAMA OR KGUY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL
SITES BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KDHT BY AROUND 21Z...KGUY BY 23Z...AND KAMA BY
00Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
FOR TONIGHT. DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING.
THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO HAS ALREADY SPARKED A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. BELIEVE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. KGUY AND KAMA WILL BE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. KDHT
SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT KAMA AND KGUY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...NEAR THE VERY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...TSRA COULD BE
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KDHT AROUND 21Z AND KGUY AND KAMA BY 00Z.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST MID CLOUDS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES BUT WERE
ERODING QUICKLY AND SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AS MIXING STRENGTHENS. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. 1.) FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH DEEP
MIXING BEHIND THE DRYLINE RESULTING IN DRYING AND STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE MET IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 2.) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE
COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TOWARD LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTINCT
VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND DOWNSTREAM
CONVECTION HAVE COMPLICATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH WERE LOW CLOUDS LINGER. 12Z KAMA OBSERVED
SOUNDING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE A VERY SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE MOIST LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MIXING OUT
OF THE SEEMINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AS CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST HINTS AT THIS.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES TO BETTER REPRESENT EXPECTED COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WESTWARD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE AFTER MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES ROUGHLY.

BRB

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...LEAVING THE AREA UNDER DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD IN THE EVENING...WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE AREA. UPPER LIFT FROM THIS LOW AND A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT CAN
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE AMA CWA...LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR
OUT ANY MOISTURE SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THERE CAN BE ON AND OFF AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS INITIALLY
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER FLOW
AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA CAN
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER
FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLENDED
GUIDANCE OF 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES UNTIL 8 PM. SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE BUT MAY STILL APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY
THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15





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