Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171729
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1129 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Morning low clouds have cleared except for KGUY for the start of
the 18Z TAF cycle. These clouds should clear within the next
couple hours of KGUY to allow VFR conditions to prevail for the
remainder of the day. Overnight, there is a chance for a light fog
to develop across portions of the Panhandles which could impact
the KAMA and KGUY terminals. Have inserted lower visibility for
this possibility, but think KDHT will miss out on this fog
potential. Any fog that does develop will dissipate by the late
morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move across the Panhandles this morning in the
wake of a departing upper level low which is moving into Kansas. Low
clouds and areas of fog will be found in association with the cold
front, but think these will dissipate and push off to the east by
early afternoon.

It will be interesting to see if low clouds and fog form again
tonight into early Monday. Temperatures may drop fairly quickly
after sunset given the light winds and the slightly drier air behind
the cold front.  The NAM model wants to be agressive with the
moisture return as the front dissipates to our south.  The GFS is
not as agressive with the low level moistening since mid and high
level clouds increase overnight keeping temperatures a little warmer
and therefore keeping a spread between the dew points and
temperatures. For now will go toward the GFS model given the current
satellite picture.

Southwest winds will return to the Panhandles as a surface lee
trough develops in response to another approaching upper level low.
This new upper level low is expected to move east/northeast across
northern Mexico and into western Texas on Tuesday. The models do not
agree on the track of this next system, but it appears that the far
southeast Texas Panhandle may see a shower or two in the wrap-around
as the upper low moves to our south and southeast.

The main belt of the westerlies in the upper levels will then start
to sag southward again and this should allow for another colder
short wave trough to move across the Panhandles Thursday into
Friday. This next short wave trough will bring Canadian air with it
and it will send temperatures back below normal from Friday through
next weekend. The jury is still out on whether any snow will fall
with this next system. For now kept some slight chance pops for snow
showers in the forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/11


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