Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 262357 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
657 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016
For the 00Z TAFS, latest round of showers and tstms is beginning to
diminish, and that trend should continue through the evening hours.
A near repeat performance is then expected Monday, with another crop
of showers and tstms developing. The combination of low confidence as
to which TAF site, if any, will be impacted later Monday afternoon
coupled with the fact that the next round of tstms will likely form
near the end of this fcst cycle precludes mention of this weather
element for this fcst period.
.Prev Discussion... /Issued 408 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/
A broad area of high pressure covers the southern half of the conus
with a small low pressure center over southwest Texas. This low
pressure will continue bringing moisture into the Panhandles. A mid-
level shortwave in conjunction with 1500 J of mixed layer CAPE and
decent mid-level lapse rates, has allowed convection to initiate this
afternoon. With PWAT values above the 90th percentile for this time
have allowed these storms to be efficient rain producers and bring
some small hail. These storms are expected to continue generating and
moving northward through the evening. Storms are expected to remain
below severe or briefly become severe as the storms will be somewhat
pulse in nature.
Models vary each day in the eastward extent of the high pressure
center, with the NAM being the most limited in extent. Shortwaves
will ripple through the middle of the conus which will bring enough
instability each day to set off mountain convection as well as
initiate random storms over the area. By Tuesday, a pattern of
ridging in the west and troughing in the east will start building.
This will bring northwest flow to the region, allowing mountain
convection to be pushed into our area. Shear will begin increasing a
bit as the pattern takes hold. Storms that form each day should
remain below severe levels, or briefly become severe, with damaging
winds and localized flooding being the main threats. By week`s end,
high pressure is progged to slide east over Texas.