Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200044
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
744 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Echoes detected by KAMA radar moving north at 25 kt into southwest
Texas Panhandle at this time.  Isolated convective elements which
are able to reach around 40 dBZ have been those associated with
measurable rain, i.e., 0.01 inch rain, as observed by West Texas
Mesonet sites at Muleshoe and Friona.  All of this being meant to
state that not much rain is reaching the ground in spite radar
coverage.

Southeast surface winds become more southwest overnight below a
mid- or high-level overcast.  Some concern for a brief period of
MVFR or IFR stratus between 08z and 15z, but certainty of
occurrence is not high enough to forecast such ceilings.
Developments will be monitored closely with amendments issued if
necessary.

Shortwave trof passes around midday Friday, with notable clearing
in its wake expected for Friday afternoon.  Some shallow cumulus
may develop during the afternoon, but capping inversion expected
to inhibit thunderstorm development.  South southwest surface
winds expected to gust into the 30 to 35 kt range Friday afternoon
as deep mixing occurs.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No major change to the overall theme of the forecast for the next
seven days.

The shortwave across southern New Mexico will help to bring
isolated showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder to the
Panhandles this evening and overnight. Instability is fairly low
so not anticipating any severe weather through the overnight
hours.

Our rain chances are expected to shift to the eastern portion of
the area on Friday as another shortwave moves out of New Mexico.
There will be better instability and shear Friday afternoon so a
strong to marginally severe storm can`t be ruled out.

A strong cold front is expected to push southward toward the
Panhandles Saturday morning. By midday Saturday, the front is
expected to be through the northern zones. The additional lift
provided by the front may be sufficient for an isolated storm to
develop across the southeastern zones before quickly moving into
western Oklahoma. The post-frontal airmass is expected to drop our
high temperatures into the lower 70s and upper 60s.

Clear skies on Monday will be enough to warm us back into the mid
70s for highs before another cold front drops across the
Panhandles Monday night into Tuesday morning. This frontal passage
is expected to be dry with breezy north winds behind it. The
post-frontal airmass will help to keep our temperatures in the 60s
area wide on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  75  56  73  40 /  20  20  10  10   5
Beaver OK                  55  80  59  72  40 /  10  20  20  10   5
Boise City OK              51  77  50  63  35 /  10   5   5   5   0
Borger TX                  58  79  62  74  45 /  20  20  20  10   5
Boys Ranch TX              54  80  54  72  36 /  20  10  10   5   0
Canyon TX                  53  76  56  74  39 /  20  20  10  10   5
Clarendon TX               55  75  59  79  44 /  20  20  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 52  79  51  68  36 /  20   5   5   5   0
Guymon OK                  54  81  56  67  38 /  10  10  10   5   0
Hereford TX                53  76  55  73  38 /  20  10  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                58  75  63  76  43 /  10  20  20  20   5
Pampa TX                   57  77  59  75  43 /  20  20  20  10   5
Shamrock TX                56  73  60  80  46 /  20  20  20  20  10
Wellington TX              56  74  59  82  46 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/21



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