Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010428 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS FCST CYCLE.
SFC WINDS WILL RAMP UP AT ALL TERMINAL SITES BEGINNING AROUND 14Z
SATURDAY AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO AND NERN NM.
PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ELEMENT DURG NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS WILL RAMP UP BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER ERN CO AND NERN NM. PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HALLOWEEN GOT OFF TO A CHILLY START TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A COOL HIGH SURFACE RIDGE. WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAVE GENERALLY CLIMBED INTO THE 50S /WHICH IS CERTAINLY MUCH WARMER
THAN THE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ IT WILL BE
CHILLY FOR TRICK OR TREAT FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT...PATCHY FROST AND/OR A LIGHT FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DID REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS GIVEN SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF POTENTIAL FROST AND/OR FREEZE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WHILE
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...THE EVOLUTION OF A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES AS THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS UPPER LOW AND INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY BUT LEFT OUT MENTION FRIDAY GIVEN THESE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S SUNDAY WHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR MID WEEK WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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