Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 261650 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Northwest winds with gusts to around 30 knots will slow to around
10 knots or less this evening. Skies are expected to remain VFR.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/
12z Issuance...While most areas will remain VFR today...an area of
fog has moved into the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and should be
limited to this area and last into the mid morning hours. Also
can`t rule out some patchy MVFR cigs and isolated -shra as low
pressure moves across northern zones during the late morning and
through the afternoon. A storm or two could form in the Oklahoma
Panhandle (near KGUY) in the afternoon but not confident enough to
include in TAFs. Otherwise...Winds will be increasing after
sunrise to around 15-20 knots out of southwest prior to frontal
passage. Front will move through KDHT first as winds shift to the
northwest and increase to 20-30 knots. KGUY and KAMA will switch
to NW in the afternoon. Winds will subside around sunset.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 529 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/
For this morning, have included mention of fog across central and
eastern OK Panhandle as well as far northeast Texas Panhandle as
low level moisture has increased enough via east and southeast
winds that temp-dewpoint depressions are around 2 degrees or less.
Otherwise, the next storm system on the docket is slated to move
across the srn high plains today on a track north of our forecast
area. Short range models continue suggest the primary
precipitation shield will likely remain just north and east of the
TX and OK Panhandles. Have have opted to retain pops for today
across the OK Panhandle and far northern Texas Panhandle as this
area will be closest to this fast moving upper level storm system.
In addition, the associated cold front will make its way across
the forecast area today with northwest to north winds in its wake,
likely reaching into the breezy category at times.
A short break in the active weather pattern is anticipated
Monday. Another vigorous upper level low pressure system is
forecast to impact the srn high plains Tuesday through Wednesday
night. The 00Z medium range models continue to struggle on the
projected path and speed of this particular storm system.
Therefore, have continued to lean towards a model consensus with
all weather elements associated with this storm system pending
better model agreement.
Finally, medium range models continue to indicate yet another
upper level low pressure system possibly affecting the OK and TX
Friday night into the weekend, the details of which have yet to be
ironed out. Will note that models are offering different solutions
in handling this particular storm system as well, so have trended
towards a model consensus solution this far out in time.
Elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop across the
southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon due to 20 foot west to
northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts along with
forecast minimum relative humidity values between 15 and 20
percent. Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are
expected from Monday through Saturday as minimum relative humidity
values are forecast to remain above 20 percent during this time