Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 262354 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
BEFORE THEN...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE KDHT
TERMINAL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. THIS SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE KAMA AND
KGUY TERMINALS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ROUGHLY AROUND 06-10Z WITH THIS NEXT
ROUND OF SNOWFALL MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SNOW CAN BE
MODERATE AT TIMES LEADING TO CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO THE IFR CATEGORY
AND POSSIBLY VLIFR ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW ATTM.
FURTHER AMENDMENTS TO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY THEN.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT...THE
ADVERTISED SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS ON TRACK.

WHEN AND WHERE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. BY 6 AM FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
EXPERIENCING SNOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY NOON
WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY
EVENING. ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL HAVE A
SIZABLE CHANCE TO SEE SNOW WITH THIS ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP.

WHAT & HOW MUCH...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONFINE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO ALL SNOW. STORM TOTALS BY FRIDAY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVY SNOW-BAND TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE MAIN SURGE OF SNOW. THIS
BAND IS LOOKS TO SET-UP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. THIS BAND WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE A QUICK COUPLE
OF INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT THE MAIN SURGE BRINGS.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE HIGHER WITH RESPECT TO LOCATIONS, P-TYPE,
AND AMOUNTS WITH A SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SNOW-BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
PANHANDLES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED AND MESSY SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS ENEWD TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING ALL LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN COMPILED IN THAT FASHION...ALTHOUGH
POPS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH DURG THIS TIME PERIOD...GENERALLY IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AT ANY ONE LOCATION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TUE NIGHT THRU WED
NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS NEXT WED AND THURS. CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHC
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

MORRIS/ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

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