Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172358 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, isolated to scattered showers and tstms
currently around the fcst area will continue to affect the region
this evening into tonight, and have accounted for this in the
TAFs. Additional tstms may develop again late Friday afternoon.
However, have omitted mention durg this time frame due to low
confidence as to whether or not any TAF site will be impacted.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A shift from the recent exceptionally wet pattern to a somewhat
drier (but not completely dry) pattern is underway as weaker and
more backed upper flow is expected Sat through Mon. As is usually
the case though, it will be difficult to break this pattern and
models are now hinting at a possible return to northwest flow as
early as Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tonight through Friday night...A slight chance for a bit of severe
weather will be evident across the western half of the combined
Panhandles this afternoon and this evening. Just enough effective
shear could combine with upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE to allow for a
bit of quasi-organized convection.  The best chance for anything
severe will be now through 9 PM. Another round of non-severe storms
may breeze through the area after midnight. Similar degrees of CAPE
but likely a little less shear will be noted tomorrow with the best
environment for a few strong storms probably in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle.

Saturday and Sunday...These days will be more dry than wet. However,
given that most of the models are mixing dewpts out to the low to
mid 50s which just probably ain`t happenin` over this wet
ground...decided to leave some token 20 pops in the aft/evening
hours both days.

Monday (eclipse day)...A shortwave in SW flow will bring with it
some good monsoonal moisture and likely result in extensive mid and
high cloud cover (not looking great right now for the eclipse).
Could also see some showers with this wave, especially in the west.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A cold front is progged by the ECMWF and GEM
to cross the area and hang up somewhere in the southern Panhandles.
Have thrown out the GFS solution for the most part as it shows
nothing of a front.  Moisture/mass convergence near the front should
be enough to provide a bit higher precip chcs Tue and Wed
supposing the ECMWF and GEM are the right models.

Temperatures...Temps throughout the next 7 days should be right
around normal for this time of year.

Simpson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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