Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

Conditions should go to MVFR for ceilings this morning as a cold
front passes through the region with ample moisture in the lower
levels. MVFR to near MVFR conditions are expected through at least
the morning hours with some improvement expected later today to
VFR. There will likely be showers around during this TAF period as
well, but confidence is low on exact coverage and timing. Got the
general trend in the TAFs though. Showers could be expected this
morning around KGUY, and then later tonight around the KDHT and
KAMA areas. Keep an eye out for amendments as confidence increases
for timing and coverage.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 511 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Surface cold front will move across the fcst area this morning
with north to northeast winds in the breezy to windy categories
with higher gusts at times behind this boundary. Cool surface high
pressure will then build into the area late today and tonight.
Drier air will invade the region today and Saturday. Low level
moisture will be slow to return until later this weekend due to
the drier atmosphere behind the cold front. As a result, there
will likely be a relative minimum in shower and tstm coverage
across the OK and TX Panhandles today and Saturday. Therefore,
have lowered pops accordingly durg this time period. Below normal
temperatures are in store for the area today through Monday.

The upper level pattern will primarily be one of northwest flow
aloft with an upper level ridge of high pressure over the western
states while an upper level trof of low pressure persists across
the eastern states. This pattern will continue through Monday
before becoming more semi-zonal Tuesday through Thursday. Once
sufficient low level moisture returns to the region Saturday night
into early next week, the prospects for showers and tstms will
increase areawide, with highest pops overall from Saturday night
through Monday night. Slgt chc pops for Tuesday and Tuesday night
seem plausible as the upper level flow transitions from northwest
to more westerly, then no pops for Wednesday and Thursday. High
temperatures will rebound into the 90s over the region Tuesday
through Thursday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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