Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301033 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES TO
ABOUT THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AS A NEW LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN INTO A DRYLINE THIS WEEKEND AND MIX INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY TO THE
CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE LOW ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND MOVING
TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN COLORADO
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
PROVIDING THE SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
WITH SUNDAY MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW ON THE STATIONARY
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT THE
FRONT NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPANDED THE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND
ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/11





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