Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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543
FXUS63 KARX 040803
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ENTERING NORTHWEST MN...AND THIS
WILL TRACK TOWARD THE U.P. BY AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW BANDS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ALREADY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO HELP SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH PER CURRENT TRENDS. COULD
BE A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. ANY
LINGERING SNOW IN WI WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LIGHT WINDS
AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHEAST IA
AND SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES IN ALREADY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING THIS IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
WE PREVIOUSLY WERE THINKING...SO SPED UP THE ONSET ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE THURSDAY EVENT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...
BUT AMPLE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN WI.
AGAIN...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY AND THEN A
LARGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. THIS ONE IS
QUITE STRONG AND BRINGS ALONG SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PASS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GENERATE SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. THUS THERE COULD BE
A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES AS IT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...AS SOME ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW
IS A GOOD BET.

THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AFTER THIS SUNDAY SYSTEM...WITH LARGE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE. THE SUNDAY SYSTEM ASSISTS SEVERAL OTHER
SHORT WAVES IN CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE ARCTIC EXPRESS TO
ALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO POUR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW ZERO LOW READINGS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR WED/THU/FRI NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE IS 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT
TAF AIRFIELDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE -SN IN CURRENT TAFS AS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THAT WOULD
IMPACT VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-94. PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
BE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE BEGINNING AT 04.18Z
AT KRST AND 04.20Z AT KLSE. THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD BE BRIEF...
SCATTERING BACK OUT THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...ROGERS



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