Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 240448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LACK OF IT OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF MINNESOTA.
00Z RAOB DATA FROM MPX...ABR AND BIS ALL HAD 925MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THAT WERE QUITE A BIT DRIER / 3 C OR SO / THAN THE
23.12Z/18Z GFS/NAM. AS SUCH...THOSE MODELS SUGGESTED TOO MUCH LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE NEW 24.00Z NAM...NOW THAT IT HAS THE
RAOB DATA IN IT...HAS GREATLY DRIED OUT ITS 925MB RH FIELD. IN
FACT...THE 925MB RH FIELD LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 23.21-22Z RAP RUNS
THAT WERE USED FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS. IN ESSENCE...FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY...HAVE GREATLY REDUCED CLOUD
COVER ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. ADDITIONALLY...THE CLOUD THAT IS
COMING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SECTION LOOKS TO SCATTER
OR CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO
THE SKY FORECAST.

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF WINDS
AND AREAS RECEIVING CLOUDS TO HELP PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS STRATUS INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE
STRATUS DECK IS WORKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 1500 FT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
SREF VISIBILITY PROBS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THE
FOG DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOT
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST NOW...IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
PLACING THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SNOW...CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE A 3-5 INCH BAND IS
NOT. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTESTATE 94 SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AN ENHANCED BAND POSSIBLE. WHERE
THIS BAND SETS UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. IF THE SOUTHERLY TRACK
HOLDS...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THERE COULD BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. A LITTLE BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS BRIEF WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

STRATUS...OR REALLY LACK THEREOF...CONTINUES TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST. MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH MORE MVFR STRATUS LURKS
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST MN. WITH THE FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE GROUND TURNING NORTHWESTERLY...ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS
MVFR STRATUS COULD BRIEFLY GET INTO LSE BETWEEN 11-13Z...BEFORE
THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE WEST TO PUSH IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. DURING THE
EVENING...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
IOWA...SPREADING SNOW TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW JUST BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 03Z IN THE SNOW...SINCE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW LOOKS TO TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS TRACK...WHICH WILL HELP PULL THE STRATUS THAT GETS STUCK
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 TODAY INTO THE TAF SITES. BROUGHT CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ


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