Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 131056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
456 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 148 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Quiet weather in store for today through Wednesday along with
warming temperatures.

GOES Water vapor/IR early this morning showing a mid-level trough
moving northeast through the Dakotas into MN. Broken deck of mid and
high clouds in advance of this wave have spread into our area with
temperatures as of 1 am ranging from the single digits below zero to
10 above.

The mid-level trough will continue to rotate northeast through
northern MN/WI this morning and into southern Ontario by this
afternoon. As such, plan on partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies this
morning, becoming mostly sunny during the afternoon. Not expecting
any precipitation from these clouds as sub-cloud layer will be very
dry. Otherwise, look for highs today in the 25 to 30 degree range.

Southwest surface flow/warm air advection moves in later tonight
through Wednesday in the warm sector of low pressure moving along
the US/Canadian border. 925mb temperatures warm into the +5 to +9C
range Wednesday, but there is a substantial snowpack in place along
the trajectory of this southwest flow, which will cool what is
realized at the surface. That being said, highs are expected to push
into the upper 30s to the middle 40s under mostly sunny skies.

There will be an increase in cloud cover Wednesday night as the cold
front from that passing Canadian low pushes south into northern
WI/MN. Continuing southwest surface flow will keep overnight lows
from diving off too much with readings expected to bottom out in the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Cold frontal passage takes place Thursday as a wave of weak low
pressure moves out of the Central Plains into northern IL. Right
now, looks like we may remain dry overall as bulk of precipitation
holds north and south of the forecast area. Did carry a slight
chance of light snow from southeast MN into north central WI.
Otherwise, plan on highs in the 30s. There will be a slight chance
of light snow Thursday night as a mid-level trough moves east across
the area. Best forcing from this wave stays mainly north of the I-
90/94 corridors during the evening. As such, carried a 20-30 pop
during the evening hours.

High pressure will provide quiet conditions Friday and Saturday.
Fairly chilly on Friday with highs only in the teens/lower 20s but
rebounding temperatures expected Saturday with highs in the upper
20s to middle 30s.

Weather looks a bit more active for later Sunday into Monday as a
couple areas of low pressure converge over the area. Hard to
pinpoint details but looks like we could see a rain/snow mix as
highs top off in the 30s/lower 40s Sunday and upper 20s to middle
30s for Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 456 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The short wave trough working across Minnesota this morning will
move off into Canada today with the flattening upper level
trough coming across the region this afternoon. The subsidence in
the wake of the short wave trough and the lack of lift from the
weakening trough, will allow the mid level clouds and VFR ceilings
to move out of the area late this morning followed by mostly clear
skies through tonight. Forecast soundings for KRST show a shallow
mixed layer today with steep enough lapse rates to produce a few
gusts to around 20 knots through late afternoon.




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