Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KABR 032128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

As of 20Z, an upper level trough of low pressure is located over
South Dakota with a WAA band of pcpn crossing the eastern CWA. With
temps aoa freezing, believe most of the pcpn will fall as rain,
with pockets of snow. As this system pushes east of the CWA later
this evening, another shortwave will cross the region tonight.
Hi-res models suggest pcpn with this system will remain in North
Dakota. With the GFS a bit further south, will maintain the schc
to chc pops from the previous forecast. Sunday will be dry and
mild with highs in the mid to upper 30s. A low pressure system
will begin crossing the region late Sunday night through Monday
night. Models have been fairly consistent with the heaviest
snowfall occurring in North Dakota. Yesterday`s 12Z outlier, the
Canadian, even trended north. Accumulating snowfall still looks
best in north central SD for this CWA. Snowfall amounts of 1-2
inches could be possible. While winds will be gusty, the blowing
snow model does not show much potential for blowing snow. The
blowing snow index off the NAM does show a low probability of
seeing reduced visibilities. Will hold off on adding blowing snow
into the forecast for now as it will depend on falling snow. With
temps in the low to mid 30s today and Sunday, the current snow
cover will not be a factor.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

The main story at the beginning of the extended will be the broad
upper trough that digs into the plains. This will usher in some of
the coldest air of the season so far. Highs will only top out in the
teens through the end of the work week. Breezy conditions on Tuesday
and Wednesday will also add to the cold.

On Thursday, some shortwave forcing and some CAA may help to
generate some flurries or snow showers across eastern South Dakota
and west central MN. Otherwise, the best chances for precip will not
occur until Saturday when the GFS has another upper low dips in from
the north as a sfc low moves through the southern plains. The GFS
pushes snow chances much further north than the ECMWF. The ECMWF
drops an arctic sfc high over ND on Saturday which will drag in
drier air and develop a sharp precip/no precip cutoff along HWY 212.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. KATY
would be the most likely site to see some MVFR cigs and vsby
toward morning. However, confidence is not high enough for a
mention at this time.




AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.