Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM ADVECTION RAIN MOVING ALONG AN AXIS NORTH AND EAST OF A KBIS
TO KHON LINE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. TO THE NORTHEAST HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS BACKING IN THE
SYSTEM. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES NO COLDER THAN
UPPER 20S...SO THAT WILL CONSTITUTE OVERNIGHT LOWS...CONFINED TO
THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. COOLING PROFILES WILL RESULT IN
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST. MOST
LIKELY WE WILL SEE A WET SNOW WITH A HIGH COMPACTION RATE GIVEN
PROFILE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. GUIDANCE GIVES
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES AND WILL HEDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SUNDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL LINGER
LIMITING HEATING AND THUS HIGHS. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN OVERNIGHT
WITH H925 READINGS INTO THE +3 TO +6C RANGE...SO LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE DAY AND HIGHS AT NIGHT FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. ALSO WILL
HAVE SOME COTEAU ENHANCEMENT WITH H925 WINDS AROUND 35KTS. THAT
WARM AIR REMAINS INTO MONDAY WITH 900-925MB MIXED DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES CLOSE BETWEEN UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S...AND COTEAU INTO MID 40S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR THE MOST PART...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN JUST SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE WARRANTED JUST A NON
MEASURABLE POP AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS HITTING THIS A BIT
HARDER THAN THE ECMWF. THEREFORE DUE TO THIS AND THE FACT THAT IT
IS THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN WILL SEE A PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES. RAIN AT
KMBG/KPIR AND SNOW AT KABR/KATY WILL COME TO AN END BY 11Z. VSBY
MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AFTER PRECIP ENDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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