Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222044
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
344 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

As one upper level shortwave exits the region this evening, another
one will quickly move into the region from the north. This secondary
system will bring light pcpn into the eastern CWA. Based on hi-res
models, the showers may dissipate some tonight before redeveloping
on Tuesday with heating. Fog and drizzle could be possible for a
few hours tonight/Tuesday morning. With the cloud cover, lows
tonight should remain above 40 degrees. Unfortunately the clouds
will also keep highs on the cool side with temperatures only in
the 50s expected. The coldest temperatures will be felt in our
east, while the west should reach the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Not much has changed in the out periods. Northwest flow aloft is
over the region as the period begins. But then, by Thursday morning,
the pattern is transitioning to west-southwest flow as upper level
energy works across the northern tier states, bringing a couple of
chances for precipitation to the forecast area Wednesday
night/Thursday and again by mid-weekend. Low level waa on Wednesday
will have temperatures warming through the 60s and 70s, which is
near normal for this time of year. Similar temperatures appear to
stick around throughout the extended forecast period. And
warmer/closer to normal conditions has the support of the NAEFS
Ensemble SA table.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and into this
evening. Scattered showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm or
two, are expected through this evening. Brief periods of MVFR
vsbys are possible with the precipitation. IFR/MVFR cigs will
overspread the eastern half of the CWA late tonight through
Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...SD


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