Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182124
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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