Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280952
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
352 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS I-94 IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A FEW OBS REPORTING
MEASURABLE PCPN. WILL MENTION FLURRIES FOR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TODAY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM MAINLY AFFECTS
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DUE TO UP-SLOPE
EASTERLY FLOW. MUCH DRIER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
RESULT NO PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...OR THE MURDO AREA
BY MONDAY MORNING.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM KEEPING THE WEATHER
COLDER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. A NEARLY
1050MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN
WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR CWA ON THE BACKSIDE WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY. BOTH OF
THESE DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S MAY
FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS COLD PUSH LOOKS TO BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EC AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THUS...HAVE IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A COLD FRONT BACK-DOORING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR/VFR STRATUS AND SOME FLURRIES ARE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT. SHORT-RANGE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THIS STRATUS
ACROSS THESE FOUR TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OUT AT KPIR BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING...PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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