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000
FXUS63 KABR 242353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
653 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODELS. CURRENTLY ALL CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN STATE BORDERS OF SD. WHILE THE SOUTHERN
CONVECTION MIGHT CLIP SOUTHERN LYMAN COUNTY...IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS YET. SO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING BUT
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS BY 2Z WEST OF THE MISSOURI. EVEN THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK
AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WAS ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA AS OF 20Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO RIDE
OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
FROM MID EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONE HINDERING FACTOR WILL
BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 5OS TO LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY
AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
BEARABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
COUPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA.





&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER AS THE LOW AXIS
MOVES EAST BY 6Z BEFORE SHIFTING THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KTS
BEHIND THE LOW. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER DIFFICULT CONVECTIVE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT BUT CHANCES DO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
AFTER 3Z AT KMBG/KPIR AND THEN PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN