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000
FXUS63 KABR 070517 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1117 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS A
BAND OF RAIN TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SO FAR TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH PERHAPS A LINE OF FREEZING RAIN RIGHT NEAR
THE ND/SD BORDER WHERE TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. AS THE
BAND MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH INTO COOLER SFC AIR SO EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACCORDINGLY.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA AS OF
20Z...AND EXPECT THE WINDS THERE TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG
AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT
LAST LONG. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL JUST CARRY A SCHC FOR
ABOUT 4-6 HOURS OVERNIGHT...SO HOPEFULLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EAST WILL STILL BE A BIT COOL ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS...BUT THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WILL SEE 30S AND 40S.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BEST FORCING
ENDS UP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT FEATURE...LOOKS
LIKE THE LONG RANGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MILD
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO WESTERLY
FLOW AND H85 READINGS AROUND +10C. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS
THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS STRATUS FOLLOWS
ESPECIALLY AT KMBG/KPIR. AS TEMPS FALL EXPECT SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -FZRA AT KMBG/KABR. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY -FZRA WILL TAPER OFF
BY 12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE

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