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559
FXUS63 KABR 220616 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
116 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Updated earlier for increasing chances of showers/storms along
with expanding chances farther west along with the watch
issuance. Not much for severe weather yet this evening with
chances looking less. Therefore, have cancelled a few counties.
Will continue to update as storms move east.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Short term forecast concern will be possibility of evening
convection across the northeast corner of the cwa followed by
another wave moving through on Thursday bringing another chance of
precip to portions of the area.

Warm frontal boundary parallels the James valley this afternoon
followed by a cold front entering the northwest corner of South
Dakota. Warm front has seemed to be a bit slower in progression
eastward this aftn than previously forecast. Vsbl Satl showing CU
field forming across north central SD/southern ND ahead of the
cold front. Instability starting to increase ahead of the cold
front with mlcapes 1000-1500 j/kg and decent deep layer sheer of
around 50 kts. The only bit of a caveat is fcst soundings do show
a bit a cap in place thru early eve across northeast South Dakota.

So, confidence not the highest in a widespread convective situation
happening this evening. However, a few of the CAM solutions do paint
a picture of a few strong to possibly severe storms popping ahead of
the cold front across northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Locally strong winds and large hail would be the primary
threats from any storms that do get going to build to strong enough
levels.

This front will clear the cwa later this evening and most areas
should be left with a quiet overnight. Another quick moving upper
level wave will traverse the region on Thursday. This will bring in
another round of precip to portions of the area. This system looks
to mainly affect areas along and south of a Highway 12 corridor. Not
expecting any severe weather with this system as most instability
remains well south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The long term period begins with a broad upper level trough over the
region with much cooler temperatures filtering into the CWA. The GFS
is showing a 500 mb shortwave crossing the region Friday
night/Saturday morning with showers possible, mainly in far NE SD
and western MN. 925 mb temps behind this system are only in the
single digits by 12Z Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday should
range in the mid to upper 60s, or some 15 degrees below normal.

Upper level ridging will slowly built into the region Sunday and
Monday before breaking down by Tuesday. Summer temperatures will
return to the region by Tuesday with highs reaching the 80s.
Humidity will also increase by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Numerous showers and storms will move from west to east across the
region tonight and Thursday as a short wave trough digs in from the
northwest. These are expected to affect all stations at or in the
vicinity with mainly VFR conditions through the period. These will
move east/end from late Thursday morning into late Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK