Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201755 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Radar was showing some high based showers/storms in north central
SD/south central ND late this morning moving quickly east. Dont
believe much rainfall will occur with them. Made some adjustments
to pops for the rest of the day along with sky cover and
temperatures. Updated forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Cold front continues to move eastward across the region and has just
recently moved through ABR. Behind this front, there has been
development of showers and thunderstorms over the past couple hours.
There is some MUCAPE and effective shear to work with, but the bulk
of the higher values are moving eastward with the front, with more
stable air back to the west. Nonetheless, we have seen a few cells
try to pulse up with perhaps some pea sized hail at times. Expect
this activity to persist through the morning hours, as more
scattered showers and storms are showing up over western SD.

Another weak impulse looks to move east across the area for eclipse
Monday. This will likely bring partly to mostly cloudy skies, which
could obscure viewing of the eclipse for many locations. Areal
coverage and degree of cloudiness is still a bit in question though
as soundings are not totally saturated aloft. Feel there should be
some breaks or thinning in clouds in places to prevent a total
overcast scenario.

Surface high pressure builds into the area Monday night through
Tuesday, bringing dry conditions and pleasant temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Long term will be mostly dry with northwest flow transitioning to a
high amplitude upper ridge. Once the ridge axis moves east of the
CWA and we get into southwest flow aloft, around the end of the
week/start of next weekend, we will see increasing chances for
precipitation. As for temperatures, they will be right around
average through the latter half of the work week. There will be
surge of warmer low/mid level air next weekend as the pattern
progresses, however timing of this is still uncertain so will just
stick with blended guidance.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Some p6sm light showers will affect MBG, ABR, and ATY at the station
or in the vicinity this afternoon as a short wave trough moves east.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Monday.




LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.